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Twelve teams enter. One team will win it all.
There’s a lot to say about this College Football Playoff, and had we prepared a little better, we could have said much of it over these last two weeks. Instead, we’ll say this: Three or five of these teams should be talented enough to win this thing. Two or three are playing well enough already to consider themselves contenders. The first round has major letdown potential. The championship doesn’t…I don’t think.
In this post, we’ll take a brief look at each of the twelve teams in the playoff field, assessing their championship odds from our college football model, their score on the 247Sports Talent Composite, and their current power rating from Movelor, our model’s rating system. We will, of course, have plenty of thoughts on those things as well. If you’re looking for a playoff preview, you could do worse. Once we’re done with the team-by-team stuff, we’ll get into tonight and tomorrow’s games, with bonus looks at the FCS semifinals at the bottom. Let’s get to it.
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Oregon Is Good
National Championship Probability: 29.9%
Movelor Rank: 1st
Talent Composite Rank: 6th
If the national championship were played a week ago, Oregon probably would have won it. That’s what Movelor tells us: Where should we expect each team to stack up one week after their last game? How well is each team playing right now? The problem for Oregon is that there’s a lot of time between December 7th, when the Ducks won the Big Ten title to get to 13–0, and January 20th, when Oregon will—in Oregon’s ideal world—compete for the national championship.
Working in Oregon’s favor is that so far this season, the Ducks have passed every test they’ve faced. They have a lot of talent. They have a reliable, effective quarterback. I’m unaware of any criticisms of Dan Lanning which hold water. Working against Oregon? They don’t quite have the bodies of Georgia, Ohio State, or Texas. The program is getting there, but it isn’t there yet.
The Talent Composite is best conceptualized as a team’s ceiling. It measures roughly how much speed, size, and strength is present within a program. With six weeks to get better, what Oregon should fear is a team with a higher ceiling meeting that ceiling, or Oregon itself starting to fade as the wear and tear of what could be sixteen games mounts.
Notre Dame Is Hard to Read
National Championship Probability: 29.1%
Movelor Rank: 2nd
Talent Composite Rank: 9th
Oregon played Ohio State. Georgia played Texas. Penn State played Ohio State. Tennessee played Georgia. Indiana played Ohio State. SMU and Clemson at least played one another.
The thing about Notre Dame which makes them so hard to measure is not the NIU loss. Losses like that one are exceedingly rare, but college football’s sample is large enough that we know how to process them. What’s odd about Notre Dame is that they played a reasonably competitive schedule without meeting a single top-20 team, at least in the eyes of Movelor. Texas A&M? 25th right now. Louisville? 21st. USC is at least 23rd, but that’s ballast, not a game-changing feather in the cap.
If Movelor (and ESPN’s FPI, which uses a different approach to seek the same answer) is to be believed, Notre Dame finished the year playing about as well as Oregon. Should we believe it? I’m inclined to say yes. Marcus Freeman’s team keeps covering spreads, and while I don’t like the Georgia matchup for these guys, even with Carson Beck sidelined, well…we’ll get to Georgia in a minute. The bottom line is that Notre Dame’s got a pretty manageable path, at least relative to what teams have faced in the last twenty seasons. Notre Dame’s only going to face competition the likes of which it’s already seen over the five years preceding this one.
Ohio State Is Talented
National Championship Probability: 14.6%
Movelor Rank: 3rd
Talent Composite Rank: 3rd
There’s a thought that we live in a post-Talent Composite world. The logic there is that the transfer portal more efficiently sorts talent, creating a path for former underrated recruits to find their way to prominent rosters in large enough numbers to make the Composite’s measurement imprecise. In 2019, recruiting rankings might have missed a five-star here and there, but a program like Ohio State would have enough five-stars and underrated recruits of its own that the error could come out in the wash. In 2024, Indiana’s loaded with formerly overlooked recruits, so the Composite might be underestimating them.
I’m highly skeptical of this thought. The Talent Composite has been too useful for too long to disappear this fast. And while I don’t think Movelor’s correct when it says Michigan’s playing like the tenth-best team in the country right now, that loss wasn’t as damning as it felt for the Buckeyes. Michigan closed the year playing good, solid football. Credit to Sherrone Moore. His team didn’t fall apart despite his best early-season efforts and a deck stacked heavily against them by his predecessor. A bad loss for Ohio State? Yes. But that’s because Ohio State needs to get it together against Michigan. It’s not because Michigan’s 7–5. Michigan finished the regular season playing like a top-25 team.
The risk is certainly there that Ryan Day might implode with some game management, and that risk is higher because of Will Howard’s own repeated struggles with big moments, and those combined risks grow exponentially when multiplied out over four potential games. But Ohio State is one of the best football teams in this, and with Beck out, Ohio State probably has the highest ceiling in the field. If they beat Tennessee, they get to play Oregon in Los Angeles, not Eugene. It wouldn’t be crazy to see the Buckeyes favored in that rematch.
Penn State Has a Good Path
National Championship Probability: 8.5%
Movelor Rank: 7th
Talent Composite Rank: 11th
It would have been very easy for the committee to justify ranking Ohio State ahead of Penn State. It’s fine that they didn’t, but it would have been easy to justify. Instead, Penn State has a dream draw, Oregon has a terrible draw, and Notre Dame and Ohio State probably got screwed a little? They have plenty of space to blame themselves.
The thing about Penn State is that this path is good enough to make them a legitimate national title threat. They should beat SMU. They should really beat Boise State. From there? It might be Georgia with a backup quarterback, or a Notre Dame team against whom Penn State should have some comfort level given the programs’ parallel tracks since James Franklin took over in Happy Valley. After that? Maybe a Big Game matchup with Small Game Ryan Day, or a rematch with an Oregon team they just got to know intimately in Indianapolis.
It would be insane to see this Penn State team win a national title.
But it isn’t crazily unlikely.
Texas Has Potential
National Championship Probability: 8.0%
Movelor Rank: 6th
Talent Composite Rank: 4th
The difference between Ohio State and Texas is that while both averaged a B+ or A– this year, Ohio State swung between A+ and D football while Texas hung around the B+ or A– range the whole way through. That might be a bad sign for Texas. It’s easy to see Ohio State finding its groove. It’s harder to see that with the Longhorns. Arizona State is a dream second round matchup, and catching Oregon or Ohio State right after the pair (probably) meet for the real Big Ten Championship sounds pretty nice. But Clemson’s dangerous, at least in the context of what we’d expect from a 12-seed, and either way: B+. A–.
I’m curious how often we’ll see Arch Manning in that probable semifinal against the Real Big Ten Champion. It seems likely that Steve Sarkisian could shape some packages around the redshirt freshman as a change-of-pace look. If the packages do exist, it’s possible we’d see them in the first two rounds, but I’m not sure Sarkisian will use them if he doesn’t need them. There’s a decent chance there were packages left unused in the SEC Championship. Sark might have known he didn’t need a win badly enough to put that stuff on tape.
Much like Ohio State, Texas’s defense is nasty. It’s weird to say this of both of them, but the offense not clicking is the big concern.
Georgia Is a Sleeping Giant
National Championship Probability: 7.2%
Movelor Rank: 5th
Talent Composite Rank: 2nd
Oh, Georgia. All year we talked about this question of whether Georgia could control when it flipped the switch. If Georgia can control that, then they should probably be the favorite, even with Gunner Stockton in for Beck. Their personnel is that good, and it’s shown what it can do on the field. If Georgia can’t control it? Then these start feeling a lot like Jake Fromm’s Bulldogs. You could do worse, but you can’t trust them, and it’s hard to see the offense reaching 30 against a good defense.
Tennessee Is Respectable
National Championship Probability: 0.9%
Movelor Rank: 9th
Talent Composite Rank: 17th
There’s a natural top two in our probabilities, and a natural third, and a natural grouping from fourth through sixth. Then, there’s this huge drop to the Volunteers. But after them, there’s an even bigger drop to SMU?? That’s one way to view it. The bottom line is that there are seven playoff-caliber teams in this playoff, and one is opening on the road.
These guys were pretty competitive against Georgia. These guys did beat Alabama. But this offense is not what was advertised when Nico Iamaleava was getting Heisman buzz after torching Kent State.
Iamaleava’s an interesting case. He’s definitely good. You can see the potential that has so many analysts trying to stake their takes. But he’s not…that…good? Against teams who finished the season in Movelor’s top 50 (or 40—your choice), Iamaleava threw for three touchdowns and two picks. That’s across five games. He didn’t top 200 yards in any of them, even with overtime against Florida to pick up a few extra completions. Now he has to throw against Caleb Downs while Jack Sawyer bears down on him?
If Tennessee beats Ohio State, they’re a serious national championship threat, because that means Tennessee’s probably good enough to beat Ohio State. Until then, they’re kind of like their quarterback: Great in theory.
Arizona State Is Spunky
National Championship Probability: 0.5%
Movelor Rank: 18th
Talent Composite Rank: 30th
As an Iowa State fan: I was disappointed the Cyclones didn’t cause Sam Leavitt more problems. Cam Skattebo I understood. But is Leavitt truly competent back there? He was more than a little spotty on big throws in the Big 12 Championship.
Quarterback criticism aside, I’m not sure there’s a more likable team in this playoff than the Arizona State Sun Devils. They’re fun. They don’t quit. Kenny Dillingham’s a rising star at a time when rising stars are refreshing. This will probably end terribly at the hands of Texas’s defensive line, but at the same time: Quinn Ewers could be tight. Dillingham will have Leavitt loose.
SMU Has Played Well
National Championship Probability: 0.5%
Movelor Rank: 14th
Talent Composite Rank: 25th
Last week, when discussing Kevin Jennings, I said to a friend, “I haven’t watched much SMU this year, though.” Then, I realized something. I watched a lot of SMU this year. I watched SMU play Nevada. I watched SMU play Louisville. I watched SMU play Duke. I watched SMU play Clemson.
SMU’s offense is legitimate. Jennings is a great playmaker. He’s also a little risky with the ball, and that’s kind of the theme for that unit, and his defense is not going to do him an extraordinary number of favors. SMU is much more athletic than one would expect a recent mid-major to be. But they’re not good yet. They’re ACC good.
Clemson Should Be Better
National Championship Probability: 0.3%
Movelor Rank: 15th
Talent Composite Rank: 5th
Clemson’s making some moves in the portal this week, and we’ll get to those at a later date. If you want a reason to feel safe from a Clemson renaissance, look at how talented their roster already is. Dabo Swinney doesn’t like the transfer portal, but I’m not sure that’s actually the problem. I think we’re looking more at development issues and gameplanning. That’s just my opinion, though.
The deal with Clemson is that the numbers tell us we should keep an eye out for them to get a lot better. Theoretically, they’re between Texas and Oregon when it comes to talent level.
A separate reason to keep an eye on these Tigers is that they too enjoy Texas’s path, should they get past Texas. SMU has the same thing going for them against Penn State, and it’s a nice thing for these two teams. A lot of Cinderella runs require upset after upset. For Clemson or SMU, one upset would be enough. They’d probably be favored in the quarterfinals.
Indiana Is Well-Coached
National Championship Probability: 0.3%
Movelor Rank: 13th
Talent Composite Rank: 57th
Curt Cignetti might be annoying, but he’s done a heck of a job in Bloomington so far. Would Indiana have made the playoff if they played a harder schedule? Maybe, maybe not. They probably would have lost to Penn State, but given this year’s committee’s love of quality losses, that could have helped?
A better question is whether the Hoosiers have the bodies to make some noise against Notre Dame tonight. More on that below.
Boise State Had a Great Year
National Championship Probability: 0.2%
Movelor Rank: 27th
Talent Composite Rank: 76th
It’s a shame Boise State doesn’t have a time machine. Swap out this team for one of those around 2010 and you could have a national title threat. As it stands instead, this is a good team with one spectacular player who might have something to prove or might be terribly overconfident. Ashton Jeanty is lucky he’s not lining up to play Texas’s defensive front.
We won’t write these guys off entirely, but let us say: What a great season on the blue turf. And what a great time for it, right after it looked like the Andy Avalos era could have caused irreparable harm. Boise lives. Good for Boise.
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As for the first round games…
Indiana at Notre Dame
Movelor: Notre Dame by 16.3
Betting Markets: Notre Dame by 7
Spoiler alert: Movelor’s going to be on the same page as the betting markets for each of the next five games. There are some slight disagreements, but none like this. Movelor is high on the Irish and low on the Hoosiers.
We trust ESPN’s SP+ and FPI both a decent amount, and we therefore like to use them for gut checks. SP+, which is based heavily off of success rate, only has Notre Dame favored by 4.8 points. FPI, which is based heavily off of yards per play, has Notre Dame favored by 9.1. Movelor is based off of final scores. It’s clunkier, and as an elo-based system it puts a lot of weight on recent years, but we’ve also seen plenty of signs that Movelor’s caught up to both these teams. Movelor’s power rating for Notre Dame has hung around the low to mid-40’s for over a month, meaning that for over a month, Movelor’s seen Notre Dame as a little more than 40 points better than an average Division I team. Notre Dame’s performances over that timeframe have only helped confirm that perception. Across the way, Indiana’s rating reached 30 heading into the Michigan game and is only about half a point higher right now. The results for both keep matching up with what Movelor expects to happen.
Bill Connelly’s a really smart guy, and SP+ is usually more accurate than Movelor. I just don’t know if teams can really get better by a large enough margin over twelve months for Indiana to win this game without Notre Dame imploding. Curt Cignetti imported half a football team from JMU and built the rest of the plane around it. But even that football team had a ceiling, and it was not as high as where Notre Dame is playing. The bodies just aren’t there, and that’s against a program which we’ve often doubted (and will likely doubt against Georgia) because “the bodies just aren’t there.”
SMU at Penn State
Movelor: Penn State by 10.2
Betting Markets: Penn State by 8.5
SMU’s a fun underdog here because they’re such a chaotic football team. They’re a very college basketball-style Cinderella candidate. They do have dudes, but not enough that they should be able to compete. Instead, it’s going to take that chaos factor, the Kevin Jennings version of a college basketball team who shoots more threes than twos.
It’s been a long time, though, since Penn State lost to anyone but a very good football team. I think you have to go back to 2021 to find their last unranked loss, that nine-overtime debacle against Illinois. SMU isn’t unranked or anything, but the premise holds: Penn State’s the better team. Penn State’s playing at home. Penn State should be able to take care of business.
If they don’t?
Great news for Boise State.
Clemson at Texas
Movelor: Texas by 10.8
Betting Markets: Texas by 12
I love the Cade Klubnik–Quinn Ewers backstory. (They met in a state championship in high school their junior year, and Klubnik is from the Austin area.) I don’t know how good Texas’s offense is right now. Isaiah Bond’s injury is concerning for the Longhorns.
Steve Sarkisian is a major safety factor. Having Sark against Dabo Swinney is kind of like having a social studies teacher compete in trivia against a dog. The teacher might not be perfect, but he should be able to beat a dog in trivia. That said? If the dog gets rolling…
There’s a path for Clemson to become extremely fun in the next few years in a very goofy way, one divorced from the position group excellence of the 2010’s and wedded instead to Dabo Swinney throwing money and vibes around. I don’t think we’re there yet, though, and while I know Klubnik’s had some great performances this season, the overcorrection on his narrative was, well, an overcorrection. Clemson is fine. Texas should be good. Texas should beat the Tigers.
Tennessee at Ohio State
Movelor: Ohio State by 10.3
Betting Markets: Ohio State by 7.5
And finally, the interesting one.
Ryan Day’s safe, right?
A defining characteristic for Ryan Day is that when the pressure’s on, he struggles. Take the pressure off? Put him in the Peach Bowl against an historically good Georgia team? Watch the guy cook. But against Michigan, and last year in South Bend, and against Oregon in Eugene? He struggled. He gets away with it sometimes, but you do not want Ryan Day making crucial decisions with a lot of pressure on his shoulders. Especially as these struggles continue to mount.
So, while Ohio State should be a much better team than Tennessee, and while Tennessee is unlike the other SEC playoff teams in that Tennessee doesn’t have the talent ceiling Georgia and Texas have, the potential seems high for Ryan Day and/or Will Howard to get so deep inside their own heads that they blow this. Making matters worse, the Horseshoe might be hosting a lot of Volunteers fans, and if it doesn’t, the Ohio State fans in attendance aren’t exactly Ryan Day fans this month.
I think Ohio State will be ok.
I think.
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In the FCS…
South Dakota State at North Dakota State
Movelor: South Dakota State by 1.0
Betting Markets: South Dakota State by 3
Two months after an electric, tense Dakota Marker game, SDSU and NDSU are back in the Fargodome for Round 2. Since that meeting, South Dakota State has escaped South Dakota in overtime and beaten up six lesser foes. North Dakota State, for its part, lost to South Dakota, but they beat up five lesser foes to go with the loss to the Coyotes.
North Dakota State is imperfect. Tim Polasek has work to do rebuilding the machine which was Bison football in the days before Matt Entz. But South Dakota State is also not quite what it was, and the parallels between Entz and Jimmy Rogers should be a little concerning for folks in Brookings. Each was unproven as a head coach when they got the promotion. Each did a good job the first year of steering the ship. Entz slowly lost control of the rudder. Will the same thing happen to Rogers?
It’ll be fun to see Mark Gronowski play at least one more game. It’ll be fun to see the same from Cam Miller. Honestly, Miller might be more fun to watch. He’s been more frustrating, but that’s the fun part. Over the years, he’s made things happen.
South Dakota at Montana State
Movelor: Montana State by 8.6
Betting Markets: Montana State by 8
How good is the Big Sky?
So far these playoffs, Montana State has made that question look irrelevant. The Big Sky can struggle, but the Bobcats keep rolling.
This happens in the FBS too, and the extra week this season made it less pronounced at the FCS level because teams could play an extra nonconference game. But generally, it’s hard to know how conferences stack up against one another. We know Montana State’s a lot better than everyone from the Big Sky. We know South Dakota’s good enough to hang with the MVFC’s powers, but not good enough to handle the league’s middle tier with authority. Where does that leave us? Doing a lot of eyeballing between the two leagues as a whole. I don’t know what will happen. The markets seem to be getting a similar answer to Movelor. I wonder if their methodology is the same as well.
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Apologies for our unannounced, prolonged absence with this paternity leave. More for the unannounced part than the prolonged part, but apologies either way. We aren’t sure what our cadence will look like from here, but we’re hoping to ramp back up to some sort of regular presence in your inbox. Thanks for bearing with us, and as always:
Bark.
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