College Football Morning: Ohio State vs. Notre Dame, in Words

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We spoke at length on Friday about the numbers surrounding this game. Today, we’re going to use more words.

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Notre Dame might have the two best coordinators in the country. You could make a case for Al Golden as the best defensive assistant in college football. You could make the same case for Mike Denbrock on the offensive side of the ball. But if it isn’t Golden on defense, and if it isn’t Golden or Denbrock overall, the best assistant coach in college football might very well be Jim Knowles. We focus on Ryan Day when we talk about Ohio State, because Ryan Day’s a character, rattled and defiant and bizarrely similar to a badger in his appearance from the neck up. But Ohio State transformed when Day brought in Knowles to run his defense. That transformation will, in the likelier scenario, play out tonight.

A funny thing about how Ohio State was built is that once they got the big thing right which had so long been their downfall, they pissed away the small thing at which they’d so long excelled. Just as they figured out defense, their quarterback room blew up.

It’s not entirely clear what happened in that quarterback room, whether they were counting on Quinn Ewers to stick around or if Day just really messed up with Kyle McCord, either through talent evaluation or long-term development or in-game coaching. The upshot of it all is that Ohio State enters tonight with only three significant potential vulnerabilities: The first is a reconfigured offensive line that’s held its own so far but will be tested by Golden’s front. The second is a quarterback who on average is a B-plus but might be Ohio State’s worst since Joe Bauserman back in 2011. The third is their head coach, a man plagued by a strange collection of public, high-profile failings.

If Ohio State does win tonight, it’ll be because Will Howard doesn’t beat them. Howard doesn’t need to play a perfect game of football. But he can’t play his worst, and those who’ve watched his career at Kansas State and in Columbus know: Will Howard’s worst is always a series or two away. It’s not that Howard’s a bad quarterback. He’s the better passer on the field tonight, and the same penchant for the outrageous which made him dig that hole in Happy Valley is the same one which helped Ohio State come back undaunted from Day’s most disastrous Michigan game yet. But that outrageous nature of Will Howard football is a terrifying prospect for the Buckeyes tonight. Ohio State’s got the better defense. Ohio State’s got the better offense. But if Will Howard’s bad, Ohio State’s in danger. And it’s completely possible that Will Howard will be bad.

If Ohio State does win tonight, it’ll be a legitimizing moment for Ryan Day. That’s the best word we can use for what Ryan Day seeks: Legitimization. By all ten-thousand-foot measures, Day is a very successful college football coach. Does he have the best talent in the country? Yes. But so does Kirby Smart, and so does Steve Sarkisian, and so did Kalen DeBoer this year. It’s pretty even right now at the top. Ohio State has managed a higher floor under Day than that of even Alabama. Ohio State has managed a much higher floor than that of Texas.

The problems for Ryan Day are many. We know he wasn’t what drew the talent to Columbus, the way we could say (with some accuracy) Nick Saban brought the talent to Tuscaloosa. We also know how good Ohio State was before he arrived, how well-oiled a machine he inherited. You are reading a blog right now which regularly criticizes a former North Dakota State coach who won two FCS titles and started his NDSU career 18–0. We understand what people mean when they say Day was born on third base with the Buckeyes. What really draws such disrespect Day’s way, though, the thing which makes him such a punch line, is that his failings are accompanied by a certain kind of comedy. Marcus Freeman—Day’s opponent tonight—has lost in much more humiliating fashion than Day ever has. Marshall. NIU. Ten men on the field. We laugh at Notre Dame for these, but we don’t laugh at Marcus Freeman. We laugh at Ryan Day, a guy who’s only lost ten games in six years as a head coach, and who’s lost three of those ten games to eventual national champions.

What this reflects about Day is a specific kind of weakness. The thing which makes him so easy to disrespect is the same thing which makes him struggle against Michigan: He is highly sensitive to outside criticism. This leads him to outsmart himself. It leads him to crack under end-of-game pressure. It once led him to taunt an 86-year-old man on national television for bullying him that week.

At the end of the day, Ryan Day is not as good at coaching football as his roster is at playing football. But he’s a good coach, and he’ll most likely get his legitimacy tonight.

Notre Dame, on the other hand, is built around the question of how far coaching can take a team whose talent sits two tiers below that of the best. There are teams with a ton of five-stars. There are teams with a few five-stars. There are teams like Notre Dame, with only one former composite five-star on its roster and only one healthy player expected to be drafted in the first three rounds. Notre Dame is talented. Notre Dame is loaded with five-stars. But Notre Dame trails that first tier in talent, and it also trails Oregon and Clemson and some others.

This isn’t all Marcus Freeman, though he bears responsibility for Golden and Denbrock and figures like Mike Mickens (defensive backs coach) and Joe Rudolph (offensive line). But unlike Ohio State, whose program starts with its raw talent, Notre Dame’s starts with its coaching. This Notre Dame team is one built upon culture. This Notre Dame program is one built around development. It’s easy to get sappy with this, but even from the coldest, most calculating angle: How do you explain freshman cornerback Leonard Moore, barely a composite four-star and already good enough that we’d suggest Ohio State focus on getting the ball to people other than Jeremiah Smith?

Since recruiting rankings became an industry, we’ve only seen two programs win national championships with talent like Notre Dame’s. One—Michigan—needed and used the extra year Covid afforded to mature a historically great offensive line. The other—Clemson—got as big and strong and fast as the big boys, suffered a PED scandal, then slowly returned to earth in the aftermath. Maybe Notre Dame’s using PED’s. Maybe college football’s wide-open right now with the big boys all falling short of where they should be. Maybe Notre Dame’s going to pull a TCU tonight, rendering this conversation moot. But what we saw against Georgia was a roster neither as big nor as strong nor as fast as the Bulldogs play better football than their competition. Notre Dame executes relentlessly. Much as it went at Clemson (if the PED’s really weren’t the explanation there), a spectacular stable of assistants puts Notre Dame’s athletes in positions to succeed.

Our mention of Moore is timely, because that matchup between Moore and Smith is one of the three on which this game is expected to hinge. Golden will vary the looks he gives Ohio State’s offense, but Notre Dame’s bread and its butter is one-high man, with Xavier Watts threatening over the top. Most often, then, you can expect Moore to match up with Smith. Most often, you can expect Christian Gray to match up with Carnell Tate. Most often, you can expect nickelback Jordan Clark to match up with Emeka Egbuka. Gee Scott Jr. will be left to the linebackers.

Scott and Ohio State’s running game can win their matchups, but those weapons are unlikely to dominate to such a degree that Ohio State can end the game using them and them alone. If Ohio State’s going to make this a blowout, it’s going to need one of Smith, Egbuka, and Tate to blow away their defensive back. Each of the three can do this. Ohio State has the advantage in each of these three matchups. But just like 2018, when Notre Dame briefly hung with Clemson before Julian Love’s injury proved an early dagger, the Irish make up for a speed and a size disadvantage with scheme, anticipation, and technique. Notre Dame has a chance to hold its own in this facet of the game. If they do, their offense is effective enough to make this a ballgame.

One thing to watch for is how much Day and Will Howard try to get the ball to Smith. Day has a weird history of not only trying to win, but trying to win a certain way. He drew criticism in December for trying to beat Michigan in the trenches when he enjoyed greater advantages elsewhere. The same could be said for his approach to Notre Dame in South Bend last year, in the game where we later learned Lou Holtz was very much on Day’s mind. After Texas held Smith in check, does Day feel the need to get his star a touchdown? It’s probably not necessary. It’s probably not wise. Smith is better than Moore, but not by as great a margin as Egbuka against Clark or Tate against Gray. But if Day and Chip Kelly come out with a script sending the ball repeatedly towards Smith and Moore, it might signal some sensitivity to that narrative, and that might turn into an asset for Notre Dame.

For Notre Dame, the key is survival. Hold the ball a long time. Pick up a lot of first downs. Shorten the game and convert scoring opportunities. Catch any possible interception. Avoid a lethal screen pass or run at the end of the first half.

For Ohio State, the key is explosiveness. If the game is fought in the trenches, Ohio State has a good chance to win it. Their chance is better, though, if they get Tate wide open on posts and corners, or if they get Scott the ball in space with a full head of steam. The other key for Ohio State is not shooting their own toes off. I would feel comfortable enough with Howard as an underdog. I would not feel comfortable with Howard as a favorite. He’s good enough to win an underdog a game, and bad enough to make things treacherous for the better team. At any moment, Ohio State’s situation could get treacherous thanks to its starting quarterback.

Whichever way tonight goes, someone’s frustrating national championship drought is going to end. For Notre Dame, the drought is longer and more existential. They’ve caught lightning in a bottle here, and while the talent level’s trending upwards, plenty of programs can say that for themselves. For Ohio State, the last ten years have been more maddening. Year after year, Ohio State has enjoyed a national title chance. Year after year, Urban Meyer’s and now Ryan Day’s program has failed to finish the job. Out of everyone involved, Ryan Day probably needs this the most. But this would be a history-changing victory for Notre Dame. Not the history that’s already been written. The history still on its way.

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Three little pieces of news from the weekend, all of which could become a big deal but aren’t earthshaking in the here and now:

First, the easy one: Steve Sarkisian extended his contract by a year at Texas. It doesn’t sound like he’ll be going to the NFL.

Second, the weird one: Xavier Lucas, a defensive back, has ignited a legal battle between himself, Miami, and Wisconsin. Lucas played for Wisconsin this year, then tried to transfer to Miami. Wisconsin wouldn’t let him enter the transfer portal. Lucas sued, and the courts said, The transfer portal isn’t real, and that seemed to be that. But then Wisconsin explained why it wouldn’t let Lucas in the portal, and its explanation was that Lucas allegedly signed a two-year NIL contract. Wisconsin also accused Miami of tampering.

The Big Ten quickly had Wisconsin’s back in the press release war, and it called out the ACC for letting Miami do what Miami allegedly did. But it’s hard to separate posturing from facts right now. Should be a fun little offseason story, if you’re into legal battles over the future contractual construction of college sports.

Third, the silly one: Jim Phillips says the ACC is thinking about changing the format of its championship game, either replacing it with a game between the second and third-place teams, replacing it with a pair of games between first and fourth/second and third, or putting himself on the chair of one of those dunk tanks so Greg Sankey can douse him in water that way instead of via repeated swirlies in the hotel bathrooms in Grapevine.

Ok, I made up the third one.

But Jim Phillips, what in the world are you thinking?

First of all, if you run a conference that’s trying to reestablish its competitive credibility, getting rid of your conference title altogether seems like a weird way to do that. We are the ACC. Our championship means nothing. I understand it’s good to put teams in the playoff, but have a little pride, man.

Second, if you’re trying to get more playoff berths…I’m not sure how this accomplishes that? How do you know where the playoff cut line is going to fall? There is a very real chance the ACC costs itself a playoff bid by complicating its championship format. The Big 12 did it once when it refused to name one single conference champion.

Third, is the two-game system even allowed? I know there aren’t rules anymore, but it wasn’t long ago that the Big 12 had to lobby for the right to hold a championship game without divisions. There are limits on how many games every team can play.

Fourth—and this mostly gets back at the second one, but it’s the most important part of the message—SMU still made this year’s playoff. SMU lost its conference championship, and the committee let them in, and now Jim Phillips is yelling, How dare you punish the team who lost our conference championship?

I’m sure Phillips is a smart guy. But every time we hear from him, he’s saying something so stupid I have to read it twice.

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The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. NIT Bracketology, college football forecasting, and things of that nature. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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