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In the first two rounds of the College Football Playoff, Ohio State played unbeatable football. Through three quarters, the Buckeyes led by 25 against Tennessee and 26 against Oregon. More Buckeye drives ended in touchdowns than punts.
Last night was not that sort of game. The Buckeyes did start hot. But they never led by more than seven until the very end of the night, and by halftime, Texas had rallied enough to make clear that the 2025 Cotton Bowl was going to be a ballgame. Throughout the third and fourth quarters, the Longhorns narrowly got the better of the Buckeyes, with the lone exception coming from Jack Sawyer’s fatal strip, scoop, and score against his one-time roommate, Quinn Ewers.
Overall, Ohio State did outplay Texas. But Ohio State outplayed Texas narrowly. Had the Longhorns not broken down on the TreVeyon Henderson screen, they would have outgained the Buckeyes, and had Steve Sarkisian called anything other than a toss sweep on the late 2nd-and-goal, Texas likely would have won the turnover battle as well. Ohio State outplayed Texas. It took two huge plays and accompanying Texas blunders to make that the case.
There’s no shame in only narrowly outplaying Texas, or in needing Texas mistakes to do so. Texas was a good team this year, thought by many to be one of the nation’s five best. But Ohio State was not invincible against Texas the way Ohio State was invincible against Tennessee and Oregon. Pete Kwiatkowski’s defense suffocated Jeremiah Smith. Howard showed that reminder of who he can be at his worst. After three early sacks, Ohio State’s pass rush failed to find home until the decisive Sawyer play. Again: Ohio State outplayed Texas, and these criticisms focus on narrow, insignificant things. But the biggest question facing Ohio State—bigger even than whether Ryan Day and Chip Kelly might crumble again with the pressure back on—is whether Ohio State really got better, or if they simply played their two best games at a very impressive time. If it’s the former, Notre Dame stands no chance in Atlanta. If it’s the latter, Ohio State still has the edge, but not by more than one possession.
Texas shouldn’t be concerned that Steve Sarkisian’s program isn’t there yet. The Longhorns still haven’t caught Ohio State, Alabama, and Georgia in talent. All three of their losses this year came to two of those three teams. But, Texas did plateau this year, which was unexpected. Texas wasn’t any better at the end of this season than they were at the end of last. And for Steve Sarkisian, a negative big-game narrative looms.
Sark’s now 8–8 in Austin in what could reasonably be termed “big” games. Of those eight wins, only one—last year’s road upset of Alabama—is legitimately impressive in hindsight. The other seven came against a Michigan team who finished 8–5, a pair of Oklahoma teams who finished 6–7, this year’s Clemson and Arizona State, last year’s Oklahoma State, and this season’s Texas A&M. Half losses came against two Oklahoma teams who missed the Big 12 Championship, plus Washington and TCU teams who were blown out in the national title game. The other four were completely forgivable: Alabama, Georgia twice, and now Ohio State. But while I would call Steve Sarkisian 8–8 in big games, someone with more spiteful motives could perform the gymnastics necessary to call it 1–4, if not 1–8.
This wouldn’t be such a problem if not for the toss sweep. The toss sweep was inexplicable. Texas had the ball on the one-yard line. Ohio State had just committed back-to-back pass interference penalties. There was no incentive for Texas to score quickly. But after one unsuccessful run up the middle, Sarkisian got cute, and the result was a seven-yard loss which, at least per ESPN’s win probabilities, dropped Texas’s chance at a national championship berth from 1-in-3 to 1-in-6. Texas could have run up the middle. Texas could have thrown again. Texas had Arch Manning in the wings, a short-yardage option who didn’t register any carries after fumbling on his one attempt. For one of the greatest offensive minds in football, it was a shocking play call. It’s easy to pile on, given how it turned out, but it’s easy for a reason. It was a bad decision made at a bad time.
Big-game narratives are almost universally overblown, especially given the success necessary to even participate in most of them. Sarkisian and Texas earned their chance against Ohio State, just as they earned their chance against Washington last year and Georgia in the SEC Championship. Only one of those games was a game they really should have won. But the nation has now seen Texas stop making progress, and the nation has a vivid image to associate with the halt, adding fuel to the fire still smoldering from near-disaster against Arizona State. Big-game narratives start out silly. The risk is that they’ll self-perpetuate. Have you heard about a guy named Ryan Day and his archrival, Michigan?
To bring this back to Ohio State, before we move on: We’re very hard on Will Howard here, probably to an undeserved degree. When Riley Leonard throws a terrible interception, we say, “That’s part of who he is,” and pivot to the good parts of his identity. When Howard does the same thing, we say, “His demons are back” or “He’s what gives Notre Dame a chance next week” or “There he goes, looking like himself again.” The reason we do this isn’t that we think Will Howard stinks, or that we even think should be better. It’s that there are extraordinarily few weaknesses on this Ohio State roster. Notre Dame has issues up the middle and against the pass rush and trying to cover great receivers, in addition to those throwing the football. Ohio State’s biggest vulnerability, sometimes its only vulnerability, is Howard. Most of the time, he does his job perfectly. He’s been far better this year than anyone should have expected him to be. But every now and then, he looks like the quarterback of the fourth-best Big 12 team. This is particularly jarring because even after a season spent watching a handcuffed Kyle McCord, it’s unnatural to see an Ohio State quarterback who isn’t among the best in the country. For the decade-plus between Joe Bauserman and McCord, we never saw an underwhelming Ohio State QB. Now we’ve seen two in a row. A lot was made of it last year. This year, the receivers and running backs cover Howard’s tracks.
Plenty more to come on the matchup ahead. We’ve got time. We’ll also start getting into some post-mortems this coming week, beginning with Texas, Penn State, and the other playoff also-rans. We’re looking forward to that.
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For those wondering, Movelor has Ohio State only a 3.6-point favorite against Notre Dame. That’s enough to make the Buckeyes 64% likely to win—it’s not insignificant—but Movelor is far more cautious about this game than the betting markets, and FPI is even more cautious. I wouldn’t be surprised if SP+ has the spread around seven when SP+’s next update is published, but even that says markets are overblowing this. Markets are the most accurate of the four systems, to be fair. But markets get more inefficient the more prominent a game is. Only so much money can come from sharps, so for events like the Super Bowl and March Madness, inefficiency increases. (Hat tip to Nate Silver, who has made this point many times.)
In other news, Quinn Ewers indicated to ESPN yesterday that he does plan to enter the NFL Draft, as we discussed yesterday. Carson Beck thought he was going pro too, but Ewers is a better quarterback than Beck right now, and I do still think Ewers was more hampered by injuries this season than Texas let on. I guess we’ll find out soon if I’m right or wrong about that.
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