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“College football is at its best when it feels like the loser is watching a loved one die.” That’s what we said yesterday about the semifinals ahead of us. That’s certainly how last night felt. Near the end of the first half, with Dani Dennis-Sutton on Steve Angeli’s back, ball on the grass and Riley Leonard in the injury tent, the scene looked like curtains for Notre Dame. By the end of the night, after the most inexplicable interception of three Drew Allar threw, James Franklin was left fighting back tears in the postgame presser.
I’ll add today that college football is at its best when it’s both ugly and beautiful, when the struggle between young, human athletes turns from muddy to transcendent. Injuries have become a motif in this lengthened season, and to watch two of the best players on the field—Abdul Carter and Jeremiyah Love—not only play through pain and weakness but manage to physically overpower opponents despite the pain and the weakness…that was a special thing. Not too long ago, that heroism from our best young men was reserved for the battlefield. Now, we get to watch it in sports. Sports are better than war. They treat our primal urges without dismemberment or gangrene.
The heroism didn’t stop with Carter and Love. Tyler Warren physically overpowered tackler after would-be tackler. Dvon J-Thomas threw himself into the breach, claiming neutral ground for Penn State for long stretches of the first half. Tosh Baker and Charles Jagusah stepped in without hesitation on Notre Dame’s offensive line, one a grad student with four career starts, the other declared out for the season in August with a torn pectoral. Mitch Jeter, a sub-50% field goal kicker in the regular season, drove home the winning kick, one which faded towards the upright before hooking back left, guided by something undoubtedly physical but seemingly supernatural in the moment. Countless other acts of valor went unnoticed. Some went entirely unseen. Victories were won by scout teams and trainers and early-morning summer lifts.
Sports are better than war.
For Notre Dame, this is a second straight program-changing win. First, they beat the SEC champions, and with some authority. Now, they’re back in the national championship after vanquishing their closest thing to a twin. They figure to be an underdog on the 20th if tonight goes as expected, but they’re rather undisputedly at least the second-best team in the country. That is a new thing, and as we wrote last week, it’s astonishing given how much talent is and is not present on this roster. Marcus Freeman built a top-two team primarily through culture. He built a great engine, one capable of keeping pace with those using higher-octane fuel.
With last night’s win, there’s reason to believe the octane could get bigger in South Bend. On-field success creates legitimacy in high school locker rooms. In 2013, after Brian Kelly reached the national championship, Notre Dame nabbed its only top-five recruiting class of the post-Charlie Weis era. We can surmise that the Irish’s 12–0 regular season was the largest driving factor.
Recruiting’s different in 2025 than it was in 2012, and with these defining wins coming later in the cycle, Notre Dame doesn’t have as much to gain this spring. Their 2025 class yet again lacks a single five-star. Still, it’s hard not to wonder if this run could result, over the long term, in an increase in that octane for Freeman’s program. Freeman doesn’t need as good of athletes as Ryan Day does. If he gets them anyway? Look out.
This is getting ahead of ourselves. No Notre Dame fan should be considering this run’s impact on recruiting for another eleven or twelve days. But I bring it up, and I bring it up in part because it’s a hopeful signal for Penn State.
James Franklin is no Marcus Freeman. But like Freeman, Franklin built a very good football team around lesser-heralded athletes than those we’ll see play for Ohio State and Texas in a few hours. Like Freeman, Franklin got right to the edge of earning his team a one-game shot for a national championship despite a collection of talent with which that shouldn’t be possible. Unlike Freeman, Franklin didn’t get his team across the line and into that one-game situation, but the bottom line’s still true: Right now, it’s possible to win a championship without top-five talent. You can get to a one-game shot. In one game, anything can happen.
This could change. Maybe Alabama and Georgia figure their shit out. Maybe Oregon continues its rise. Maybe Ohio State reacquaints itself with elite quarterbacking and executes so well against teams other than Michigan that there’s a blockade around the CFP trophy. Maybe Steve Sarkisian’s Texas has more improvements left to make. But right now, it’s possible to build a top-two football team with only top-ten talent. That’s a cause for optimism in State College.
I understand the Franklin criticism. The most damning thing about last night is that Penn State’s coaching lost Penn State the game. Had Allar played anything but the very worst game of his career, Penn State would have won. The fact the Nittany Lions’ quarterback showed up so obviously overmatched by the moment reflects poorly on those who prepared him. Does Penn State lack capable wide receivers? Yes. But between Warren and Singleton, Allar had plenty of open targets, and he instead spent most of the evening breaking Penn State’s back only to get bailed out by penalties, the second of which was a highly suspect call. Even Franklin himself, in his halftime interview, more or less said out loud that Allar was rattled. That was before the second and third interceptions. That was before Notre Dame showed they were going to make a game out of the thing.
Coaching pitfalls went beyond Allar. Maybe Tom Allen was too busy preparing for Steve Angeli (more on Angeli later), but whatever the reason, Penn State’s defense lost the halftime adjustment battle by a mile. In the first half, Penn State won in the trenches on both sides of the ball. In the second, a makeshift Notre Dame offensive line came out and pushed them around on three straight runs by Love, setting the tone for a second half where the Irish demonstrably outplayed the team in blue. Some of this was Carter seeming to aggravate his shoulder injury. Some of it was Notre Dame getting its feet under itself. But it’s hard to see, looking back on the third and fourth quarter, where Penn State showed Notre Dame anything Riley Leonard and Mike Denbrock weren’t prepared to combat. Even on Leonard’s own backbreaking interception, it didn’t appear that the quarterback was fooled. He just threw the ball so inaccurately that it went straight to Dennis-Sutton.
On the other end of the field? For all of Andy Kotelnicki’s wildcat formations and pre-snap motion, Penn State took a situation where Singleton and Kaytron Allen were reliably picking up yards and let the game fall into Allar’s trembling hands. Coaches sometimes talk about dogs who hunt, dogs who don’t, and dogs who run around peeing on bushes. Kotelnicki pissed on a lot of bushes last night. He did the same thing against Ohio State this fall.
One last note on Franklin and his program before we move on: Why in the world did Franklin choose to use his playoff platform to push hair-brained schemes involving college football commissioners invoking martial law to curtail Notre Dame’s independence? I’m being hyperbolic, and some of this stemmed from the questions Franklin got asked, but for a coach often criticized for aloofness, complacency, and an unwillingness to engage with the real world, Franklin appeared aloof, complacent, and unwilling to engage with the real world in every stage of the run-up to this game. While most coaches would recite an “anyone, anywhere” ethos, sharing platitudes about toughness and focus and physicality, Franklin took the opportunity to share his personal fanfic about Nick Saban driving the SEC to nine conference games and corralling Notre Dame into a conference championship. James Franklin seemed less a football coach in those interviews and more a 40-year-old college football blogger on Bluesky dreaming up authoritarian solutions to problems that don’t exist. To top it all off, he delivered an attempted self-deprecating hairline joke with such condescension that he made Marcus Freeman visibly angry. Ironically, it’s Franklin, the elder in the room, who could learn a lot from Freeman. For the second time these playoffs, Freeman downed a merchant of unearned arrogance born of the Big Ten.
Again, though, this is strangely hopeful for Penn State. Penn State was good enough to make the national championship game, even when their head coach seemed unfocused and their coordinators spent the second half with their underpants pulled over their eyes from behind. Kotelnicki can evolve. Allen’s bad game was uncharacteristic. There are plenty of quarterback coaches and team psychologists who can prepare a player with Allar’s physical gifts to compete on the biggest stage. Even Brian Kelly once consciously reshaped his public approach. Franklin can do the same.
Penn State’s in its best shape as a program in thirty years. It’s struggling to get over the hump. The same was true of Notre Dame before last week.
We shouldn’t pretend that Notre Dame won’t still face hills to climb if they don’t win it all in ten days’ time, either in an upset over Ohio State or through edging Texas, a team Georgia beat twice. Notre Dame isn’t “back” just yet. But they moved forward, and unlike Michigan, they did it in a way Penn State can theoretically replicate. Building a culture of Marcus Freeman caliber is easier said than done. But unlike Penn State suddenly assembling top-five talent, it’s at least theoretically possible, and progress is undeniably being made.
What does this mean for Ohio State and Texas?
It’s dangerous to use single games as infallible data points. Everybody knows this, though, which leads to an overcorrection. Generally with college football, we don’t do the single-game thing enough. Five relevant ones:
- October 19th: Despite three Carson Beck interceptions, Georgia runs Texas off the field in Austin, murdering the Longhorns’ offense. Bulldogs 30, Longhorns 15.
- November 2nd: Despite a bad start from Will Howard, Ohio State swirlies Penn State in the end, aided by a bad game of Penn State’s own from Andy Kotelnicki. Buckeyes 20, Nittany Lions 13.
- December 7th: After Carson Beck leaves injured, Gunner Stockton rallies Georgia past Texas, struggling more this time to contain Texas through the air but again stuffing the Longhorns on the ground. Bulldogs 16, Longhorns 13 in overtime.
- January 2nd: Georgia mostly bottles up Notre Dame’s offense, but Notre Dame returns the favor and plays a clean enough game to beat Georgia with points to spare. Fighting Irish 23, Bulldogs 10.
- January 9th: Despite a bad start from Notre Dame’s offense, Penn State falls short, finding itself out-coached by Al Golden and Mike Denbrock. Fighting Irish 27, Nittany Lions 24.
What these five games generally tell us is this:
- Ohio State is better than Penn State. They beat the Nittany Lions on the road, and they did it with a fairly average Ohio State game.
- Notre Dame is not much better than Penn State. In a rather average game from both, the game came down to the wire.
- Notre Dame probably isn’t that much better than Georgia. The Irish are definitely better, but what gap exists only reflects Georgia’s habitual failure to execute.
- Georgia is better than Texas. They beat the Longhorns twice despite—as is their custom—failing to execute both times.
Overall, then, we get a picture very much in line with what Movelor is telling us: Ohio State is better than Texas by at least a few degrees. There are at least a few teams between Ohio State and Texas. This doesn’t mean Texas can’t beat Ohio State—it’s only one game, and as you may have heard, NIU beat Notre Dame this year—but it does mean the Longhorns are noteworthy underdogs.
Should Texas surprise, the situation changes. Suddenly, Notre Dame is the favorite, but the waters are muddy. Presumably, a Texas team who beats Ohio State is better than the average Texas we’ve seen this year. Will this continue into the national championship? Maybe, maybe not. Recency is predictive in college football, but it isn’t the whole story.
If Ohio State wins, they’re a clear favorite over Notre Dame. What uncertainty persists is how big a favorite Ohio State would be. An average Buckeye performance would probably only put them two or three points better than their foes. A Buckeye performance like what we saw against Oregon would put this team at least a touchdown better than Notre Dame, and probably more. The question we’ll all want to answer is whether Ohio State has changed or if the Buckeyes merely played two or three good games. Whether it’s two or three will be important. Ohio State can win tonight without playing their best.
One noteworthy development: Cam Williams is expected to play, putting Texas at full strength on the offensive line. Against Ohio State’s defensive front, the Longhorns will need all the help they can get.
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The big off-field news yesterday was Carson Beck’s entry to the transfer portal, the injured quarterback evidently confronting the reality of his sunken NFL draft stock. The big news this morning was Beck’s commitment to Miami, who’d immediately been considered the frontrunner for his services.
Beck should benefit from moving into Shannon Dawson’s offense, and the move is a lifesaver for Mario Cristobal. Beck might not be the quarterback he should be, but the potential is still there, and he’s lightyears better than Emory Williams, who’d seemed like the favorite for the job.
That said, Cam Ward played Heisman-level quarterback this season, and Carson Beck might not be capable of that. Add in some roster transition for the Hurricanes, this year’s atrocious defense, and the reality that this team just wasn’t all that good (they finished 21st in Movelor), and you’ve got an ACC contender but not any sort of serious national championship threat. Pertinently, they open the season against Notre Dame at Hard Rock Stadium. Beck should be fully recovered by then—his UCL surgery was deemed a “repair,” and I haven’t seen anything indicating Tommy John was performed—but given where each program stands, the current outlook would have the Canes an underdog in that one and again three weeks later against visiting Florida.
I promised we’d circle back to Steve Angeli, and this is why: A hesitant assumption was once that CJ Carr would start at quarterback for the Fighting Irish in 2025. As Angeli showed last night, though, and in last year’s Sun Bowl, the rising redshirt junior can really throw the ball. Neither his poise nor his execution last night were perfect—that fumble was almost a dagger—but he rightly earned a lot of praise coming out of the game, and if he were to jump into the transfer portal, he’d likely be a top target.
There’s been some Quinn Ewers/Notre Dame fanfic going around the internet, along with some Quinn Ewers/Oregon talk and even a little talk linking Ewers to Ohio State. Marcus Freeman rather firmly said he wasn’t going to go portalling for a quarterback again this year. He could always backtrack—Ewers would present a special opportunity—but Freeman tends to do the things he says, and Notre Dame’s NIL budget doesn’t approach the territory of the Ducks’ or the Bucks’. The money would be better used elsewhere.
Oregon and Ohio State are more interesting. Dante Moore’s the frontrunner for the job in Eugene, but he’s regarded as a work in progress. Julian Sayin and Tavien St. Clair are both big-time prospects in Columbus, but St. Clair’s an incoming true freshman and Sayin’s never seen meaningful action in his career.
If I were to personally guess, I’d guess Ewers ends up in the NFL Draft. His stock has fallen a bit, but we should hear a lot about how injured he really was as soon as Texas’s season ends, which in turn should help rehabilitate his standing, as should the fact that the man’s been trained for two decades to execute things like pro days. Maybe I’m wrong about all of that, but it really seems that there are two good quarterbacks in the draft right now, that more than two franchises want a quarterback, and that Allar’s performance last night—while only one game—was an out-and-out disaster. Ewers could still be a first round pick.
If Ewers doesn’t go pro? Then yes, Oregon seems like a good fit. I don’t know about Ohio State. Sayin hasn’t seen meaningful action, but he’s spent two years as a backup in national championship-contending programs. I don’t really think Ewers would shake up the QB carousel too dramatically—we aren’t seeing any downstream effects from Beck, or at least any downstream effects of any note—but we can’t rule out another little cycle of QB movement.
Plenty more to come. If you’re looking for our Ohio State–Texas preview, we published that yesterday.
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