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We’ve said this a few times, in various places, but Mississippi is probably very good. Movelor, our model’s power rating system which does a healthy job projecting future results, ranks Lane Kiffin’s team the 7th-best in the country right now. ESPN’s SP+, which does an even better job projecting those weekly scores, ranks the squad 4th. ESPN’s FPI, which has performed still better this season than Movelor or SP+, has the Rebels 6th. All three have Mississippi favored over Georgia this weekend in Oxford. Betting markets—the most accurate evaluators of football teams—do not. But all four sources agree: This game, on paper, is less than a three-point game.
This isn’t exactly the narrative heading into it. The college football world is more focused on Alabama traveling to LSU. There’s going to be a live tiger on that sideline, after all, and Paul Skenes and Livvy Dunne are headlining what will probably be an emotional episode of College Gameday in the wake of the passing of Ben, Kirk Herbstreit’s beloved dog. College football’s eyes are on Baton Rouge, and that’s how it should be. Alabama/LSU has meant more this century than any other annually contested matchup. Oxford might mean more to SEC culture, a Southern paragon with perfectly styled sundressed women beside neckbearded dudes in polos, but Baton Rouge means more to SEC football. And while the playoff stakes are massive for the University of Mississippi, they’re massive for both sides of the matchup a few hours south.
Still, it’s hard to not turn our attention to the land of Faulkner. Mississippi is good. Mississippi should be desperate. Georgia has that habit of taking everything lightly until the disrespect hits a fever pitch. With Tennessee coming to Athens next Saturday, it’s not hard to see Jaxson Dart springing an upset.
When one thinks of Mississippi football under Lane Kiffin, one thinks of Dart, and of Matt Corral before him. Under Kiffin, Mississippi has been a high-octane buy game wrecking machine. They’ve never finished better than 6–2 in SEC play, and they won’t again this year, but they’ve scored fifty or more thirteen separate times in his four and a half years, and they’ve done it more than once per season in conference games. When one thinks of Mississippi football under Lane Kiffin, one thinks of points. The secret this year is this:
Mississippi’s defense is really, really good.
Nearly as good as Georgia’s, if SP+ is to be trusted (and I’d opine it should be).
Specifically, Mississippi has a great defensive line, a line which leads the nation in sacks per game and—in a partial byproduct of that—leads the nation in rush defense efficiency as well. Pete Golding, the 40-year-old who served as Alabama’s defensive coordinator for five seasons in the late Saban era, has transformed Kiffin’s defensive operation. The secondary is vulnerable when quarterbacks do get the passes off, but Georgia’s going to need to protect Carson Beck, not only to keep Beck on the field but to keep him from rushing throws to fortunate Mississippi defensive backs.
Defensive tackle Walter Nolen projects as a fringe first round pick. Defensive ends Princley Umanmielen and Jared Ivey are projecting to land in the second and fifth rounds, respectively. We mentioned some vulnerability against the pass, but Trey Amos does give Golding a good enough corner to shape Mike Bobo’s passing game. Mississippi might need to outgun Georgia if they’re going to win this, but Georgia will need to play its best offense if it’s going to make that the script. Equally likely, Mississippi makes this look like their game against Kentucky. Ideally for them, it doesn’t end with the same degree of heartbreak.
That loss to Kentucky is what’s defined Mississippi’s season to this point. It’s why even if they win, our model only gives these guys a 42% playoff chance.* But Mississippi has something resembling a 50/50 shot at winning this game. There’s reason to believe Movelor, SP+, and FPI would underrate a Georgia team with a history of at least sometimes showing up better in bigger games. There might be reason to believe the systems are overrating Mississippi, if you really want to dive into the impact of blowouts on each one’s math. But SP+ should be the least swayed by repeated huge plays against Furman, and it likes Mississippi the most of the three systems. This, in all likelihood, is going to be a game.
In addition to that aspect of this—the one where we’re going to see a very good football game—the national shockwaves could be enormous. If Georgia can’t win in Oxford, either Georgia’s going to be on the edge of the national championship picture or we’re going to have a two-loss title contender. And with Mississippi back on the bubble with a win, the consequences for Notre Dame, Penn State, Tennessee, SMU, and Indiana could be intense. Right now, there are 13 teams with a 50% playoff shot or better. Nobody behind those 13 has even a 25% chance. If Mississippi wins, the bubble gets a lot more crowded.
If Georgia wins, the bubble thins, but the national championship outlook concentrates. Depending what happens in Baton Rouge, we could effectively have a little four-team bracket in the SEC, with Georgia and Tennessee on one side and Texas and Texas A&M on the other. Depending what happens in Baton Rouge.
Playoff probabilities:
- Mississippi: 42% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Georgia: 99.8% with a win, 92% with a loss
*All playoff probabilities in this post cite what would happen with an “average” scoring margin. Blowouts or unexpectedly close games have a large impact. Also important: None account for other games’ results, unless otherwise stated. These are the average probabilities, based on what blurry future our model can see.
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(More) Big Games
Alabama at LSU
Moving to Baton Rouge: There is a lot of pressure on both these coaches.
Alabama hasn’t lost three games since 2010. They will very likely lose a third at some point this year, but losing a third this early would be different from losing in, say, the Orange Bowl. We’ve discussed before how important institutional support is going to be for Kalen DeBoer’s Tuscaloosa tenure. Alabama has the most talented roster in the sport right now, but it takes booster buy-in to keep it that way, and it also takes booster buy-in to keep the money going in the directions DeBoer wants. DeBoer, an outsider, has to not only coach a football program effectively but also navigate one of the craziest fan environments in college football, one complicated by outrageous success becoming the baseline expectation over the last 15 years.
LSU’s lost at least three games four different seasons in a row. Brian Kelly entered the year 20–7 career in Baton Rouge. For him, it’s not the novelty of three losses which matters. It’s the opposite, the routineness. Talk to people at LSU, and Kelly’s 2022 victory over Alabama comes up quickly in the positive column. LSU has forgiven Brian Kelly when he’s spun his wheels because one time, he beat Alabama. Get to 2–1 against the Tide, and the man should feel fairly secure.
DeBoer is certainly not on any hot seat, and I doubt Kelly would be in danger with a loss himself. For both, the risk is not an immediate firing as much as it’s a further degradation of support from the respective university community. That’s a problem which can snowball, not least of all because other coaches can use it to recruit against LSU and Alabama. Hugh Freeze and Lane Kiffin can tell 17-year-olds and underclassmen transfers that Kelly’s on his way out, and that DeBoer is at the helm of a sinking ship. Stability has value, even in the free transfer era. Whoever loses this game will be destabilized by the defeat. Especially DeBoer, for whom expectations are greater both tomorrow and in the month of December.
Will LSU pull it off? Again, all of Movelor, FPI, and SP+ are in lockstep here, picking Alabama to cover the spread. But betting markets are more accurate, and betting markets have Alabama only favored by two or three points. The Tide will need to capitalize on LSU’s often vulnerable pass defense. LSU will need Garrett Nussmeier to play within himself while maintaining the upsides of the gunslinging. Both teams have a weakness in the secondary. Alabama’s is a little harder to find than LSU’s, but it’s there.
Alabama’s in a funky place. Win, and they’re a national championship contender, with an 81% playoff probability and a 16% shot at a first round home game or a bye. Lose, and they drop to a 19% playoff probability, with a first round home game out the window.
For LSU, the situation’s more similar to Mississippi’s. Winning would only be enough to push the Tigers close to the bubble, boosting them to a 33% playoff shot. With a loss, it’s over barring a whole, whole, whole lot of chaos. 2% playoff probability with a loss.
BYU at Utah
In other storied rivalries, the Holy War is back, a conference game for the first time since 2010. Utah’s won nine of the last ten here and, per Wikipedia, leads the all-time series by a 62–35 margin (with four ties). Utah’s the home team, and Utah’s got the more talented roster, and Utah entered the year with the higher expectations. Utah’s also the underdog, playing .500 football with bowl eligibility very much in doubt. BYU’s undefeated and, as the Big 12’s last unbeaten team, not a terrible bet to make the playoff even if they do lose in Salt Lake City.
There’s plenty more to Utah’s struggles this year than the Utes missing Cam Rising. But at the same time, those struggles have primarily come on the offensive side of the ball. BYU has not seen a defense like Utah’s, and while BYU keeps taking care of business, they’re not a consensus top-25 team among those ratings systems we’ve been mentioning. BYU’s having one of those magic seasons we’re used to seeing crest around this time of year. With the Big 12 deep but limited up top, they might be able to prolong the crest, but chances are low of reaching 13–0. The loss is probably coming. The key for BYU, dreaming of a playoff berth, is going to be keeping it manageable when it happens.
That all said: Nobody at BYU is or should be thinking about keeping some loss tomorrow manageable. This game, like Alabama/LSU, is bigger than playoff considerations. This is the biggest football game some of these players will ever play. BYU and Utah hate each other. There is none of the “your team winning helps our strength of schedule” blasphemy happening here.
To win? It’s possible turnovers will be the deciding factor. Utah’s been fairly nasty against the pass, but Isaac Wilson’s thrown just as many picks as he has touchdowns, and BYU has one of the highest takeaway rates in the country, implying an ability to capitalize on those kinds of mistakes. BYU needs to keep its head, of course, facing an archrival at that archrival’s stadium when that archrival has nothing to lose. But you would rather have the older outsider as your quarterback in this game. Jake Retzlaff must keep BYU from needing Jake Retzlaff to be heroic. The moment cannot become too big.
We said BYU could afford a loss at some point, and we mean it. With a loss tomorrow, their playoff probability only drops to 40%. That’s below 50/50, but it’s well within the range where BYU controls its destiny. With a win? With a win, the number climbs to 79%. That’s far from a lock, but it’s a powerful position to occupy.
Playoff-Impacting Games
Florida at Texas
Mississippi State at Tennessee
Elsewhere among main playoff characters, Texas and Tennessee are each in a take–care–of–business situation. Florida shouldn’t surprise anybody after putting fear into Georgia last week, and Quinn Ewers should be healthier than he’s been, if the oblique is still an issue as we suspect. Does DJ Lagway really have a chance to play? We don’t know. But for as well as Florida’s performed lately, they’re nowhere near as good as Texas on an average day. And on an average day, Lagway’s in action.
Mississippi State is not Florida, and while Tennessee isn’t Texas, Mississippi State is really not Florida. The Bulldogs have shown life at times this year, and they’re good enough that Tennessee needs to take them seriously. But this should be an opportunity for the Vols to tune up for Georgia next week. That’s what it should be.
Playoff probabilities:
- Texas: 91% with a win, 42% with a loss.
- Tennessee: 83% with a win, 8% with a loss.
Miami at Georgia Tech
Clemson at Virginia Tech
In the ACC, Miami’s got an early start on the road, which makes this the third or fourth time we’ve said that this time, it could be different for Miami. The truth is, Miami’s shown up offensively in every single game, and that offense has usually shown up loudly enough to erase any number of defensive goofs. I haven’t seen anything explicitly confirming that Haynes King is back for Georgia Tech, but that seems to be the expectation, and while the Yellow Jackets haven’t made the leap they were expected to make, they’ve been within two scores in every game except the 18-point loss to Notre Dame in mid-October. Miami’s a comfortable favorite, but Georgia Tech isn’t a pushover.
If Miami does lose, it doesn’t do as much for Clemson as you might think. If Miami and Clemson were to end up in a two-way tie for second place in the ACC, Miami’s win over Louisville would hold water, because Louisville’s a common opponent and Georgia Tech is not. Still, Clemson’s not out of this, and if nothing else, winning in Blacksburg against a decent Virginia Tech team would reestablish some momentum for a Tigers program which just hit a major speed bump, and which wasn’t exactly in mint condition before the obstacle.
Playoff probabilities:
Miami: 98% with a win, 77% with a loss.
Clemson: 27% with a win, 1% with a loss.
Purdue at Ohio State
Michigan at Indiana
Maryland at Oregon
Washington at Penn State
All four Big Ten playoff candidates play at home this weekend. All four Big Ten playoff candidates are favored by at least two touchdowns. You would think that Washington and Michigan might have an upset in ‘em, and Maryland hasn’t gotten a lot of eyes this year, but the likeliest thing is that all four of these teams win. For Indiana, the goal should be to win by many, many points. Indiana wasn’t treated fairly by the committee this week. Their schedule has been weak, but not weak enough to justify the ranking they received. Blowing out Michigan is not easy—the Wolverines have only lost by 20 or more points once this year—but that’s got to be the objective for Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers.
Playoff probabilities:
- Oregon: 99.7% with a win, 87% with a loss
- Ohio State: 99% with a win, 65% with a loss
- Penn State: 90% with a win, 39% with a loss
- Indiana: 68% with a win, 5% with a loss
Iowa State at Kansas
Colorado at Texas Tech
Over in the Big 12, it’s white-knuckle time for Iowa State. We didn’t get a recap up after last weekend (apologies), but if we did, we would have centered on Iowa State and Kansas State’s collective self-immolation. Iowa State had a loss to give, but they gave it. Now, they have to face a 2–6 Kansas team who’s only lost by double digits once this year and who still very much has Jalon Daniels as their quarterback.
Meanwhile, Colorado continues to rally, and Texas Tech isn’t out of the conference championship race themselves. Colorado is one of the most talented rosters in the Big 12 conference. If they can sustain their recent level of play, they’d be formidable for anyone in the league in a playoff play-in situation. (The playoff means more to the Big 12 than it does to the Big Ten or SEC, where the conferences in question have been stable enough to make their own conference titles more meaningful.)
Playoff probabilities:
- Iowa State: 32% with a win, 7% with a loss
- Colorado: 20% with a win, 2% with a loss
- Texas Tech: 2% with a win, 0% with a loss
Florida State at Notre Dame
I’d still be scared of Florida State if I were Notre Dame. But, being only myself, I can also point out that if Florida State hasn’t figured it out by now, now would be a weird time to figure it out. Florida State appears to be playing out the string. Notre Dame is safely in the playoff if they finish 11–1, and they’d probably get a home game, but winning by a lot never hurts.
Playoff probabilities:
- Notre Dame: 92% with a win, 14% with a loss
Should we be skeptical of that 14% number? Maybe. But you have to remember: Our model thinks it’s very likely Notre Dame beats Virginia, Army, and USC. So that’s a 14% chance in a group of scenarios where Notre Dame is most often 10–2.
Temple at Tulane
Nevada at Boise State
If BYU goes down at Utah, few teams will benefit as much as AAC favorite Tulane. Boise State is so close to a playoff lock (90%, entering the weekend) that Tulane might want to start hoping for the Big 12 to burn itself to the ground. It’s not as likely as a Boise State loss, but it’s not out of the question.
Temple’s one of the worst teams in the FBS, and Nevada isn’t much better, so Tulane and Boise State should be just fine this weekend. But given Ashton Jeanty’s Heisman hopes and Tulane’s relevance as the second-likeliest mid-major playoff qualifier, we’ll be keeping an eye on these.
Playoff probabilities:
- Boise State: 90% with a win, 59% with a loss
- Tulane: 12% with a win, 0% with a loss
Interesting Games
Iowa at UCLA
No playoff implications here, but we’ve got a good one tonight between Iowa and UCLA out in Los Angeles. UCLA’s won two in a row, and Iowa’s playing like a top 25 team now that nature has liberated them from their coaching staff’s loyalty to Cade McNamara.
South Carolina at Vanderbilt
Oklahoma at Missouri
Aside from the three up top, South Carolina’s trip to Vanderbilt might be the best game of the week. The Gamecocks deserved to be ranked following that win over Texas A&M, and if they can avoid a letdown, they probably will be ranked this Tuesday. Vandy, meanwhile, is looking to clinch its first winning record since James Franklin’s final season, which came back in 2013.
Mizzou isn’t technically out of the playoff (2% chance if they win this), but it’s hard to feel good about a team we last saw lose 34–0 in Tuscaloosa. Brady Cook is reportedly doubtful for the Tigers. Jackson Arnold is looking to secure bowl eligibility for Oklahoma and rebuild some hope in the Sooner program. He better do it this week, because the Sooners close against Alabama and LSU.
Syracuse at Boston College
Virginia at Pitt
Pitt’s not entirely dead (5% playoff chance with a win), but last weekend lowered their sails. They do get Clemson, Louisville, and Boston College after this week, so there’s meat on the bone, but the expected explanation—that they were a decent team playing very well but would crest and fade—is looking like the best one. Elsewhere, Syracuse is still 6–2, and Bill O’Brien is fighting for a bowl bid.
UCF at Arizona State
I wouldn’t have guessed this, but ASU’s second in the Big 12 on the Talent Composite. Like Syracuse, they’re still 6–2, and if enough things break their way (and they might, as we alluded to with Tulane), they could wriggle into the Big 12 mix. They’re at a 1% playoff shot if they win this.
Army at North Texas
Arkansas State at Louisiana
UNLV at Hawaii
And finally, we get to the rest of the Group of Five. We don’t exactly know what happened to Bryson Daily, but it’s sounding like an injury, not an illness? That’s the latest I’ve seen. I’ve yet to see confirmation about his status for tomorrow in Denton, but bettors seem skeptical, with the spread a couple points behind the Movelor/SP+/FPI aggregate. North Texas and Army are very, very different football teams. The Black Knights are better, but a lot of that is Daily, and even with him they wouldn’t be better enough to make this comfortable on paper.
In the Sun Belt, Louisiana isn’t expected to blow out Arkansas State, but they’re a healthy favorite. It’s hard to tell in this league, but the Ragin’ Cajuns are probably the conference’s best team. For anyone wondering (as I just was): Their one loss came to Tulane.
UNLV’s a decent-sized favorite out in Hawaii, but the Rainbow Warriors have been tougher this year. They’ve got a decent chance at making a bowl game.
Playoff probabilities:
- Army: 10% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Louisiana: 4% with a win, 0% with a loss
- UNLV: 3% with a win, 0% with a loss
The Best of the FCS
UC Davis at Montana
UC Davis has been a big FCS story this year. They’re unbeaten against FCS competition (their loss came at Cal), they’re up to sixth in the FCS in Movelor, and while they’re likely not a good candidate for the Pac-12 or Mountain West, the fundraising efforts for nearby Sacramento State at least make them an interesting figure in those worlds.
This is the first leg of a three-way single round robin between the Aggies, the Griz, and Montana State which will probably decide the Big Sky. UC Davis and Montana State are unbeaten. Montana has a loss to Weber State. The Griz aren’t as good as last year’s national runner up, but they’re still a Movelor favorite in this game and a Movelor top-five team.
South Dakota State at North Dakota
Over in the MVFC, the best action is South Dakota State’s trip to Grand Forks. The Jacks are a big favorite, as always, but North Dakota is probably among the FCS’s twenty best teams, even if their recent skid has them aimed at a 6–6 finish.
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Here’s a little more from us ahead of this weekend. Stuart should have a post up tomorrow explaining what to expect from us the rest of the season, but as far as College Football Morning goes, I’d say to look for one or two posts a week. The bracketology and other model updates will be a higher priority than College Football Morning as we enter a semi-paternity leave sometime in the next few days.
- Our latest CFP Bracketology, following Tuesday night’s rankings
- How our model’s responding to those rankings
- Playoff probabilities
- Movelor’s Week 11 picks
- Our conference tiebreaker tracker, with a big update expected Saturday night
Bark.
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