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We’re far enough into the college football season that anyone who’s undefeated is receiving mention as a playoff contender. This is around the time it happened in the four-team days as well, although Group of Five teams were usually mentioned rather quickly back then. In this twelve-team era, with a minimum of one playoff spot reserved for a mid-major, we have to mention everybody. Every zero-loss team in the country is a believable playoff team. Even Army and Navy.
Contrary to what one might assume, Army and Navy don’t need to go undefeated in order to make the College Football Playoff. Playing in the AAC, and playing in an environment in which only three other Group of Five schools remain unbeaten, a one-loss campaign might be enough to earn the CFP invitation. In our model’s latest simulations, Army or Navy gets through the conference championship undefeated only 0.6% of the time. 5.7% of the time, at least one of the two makes the playoff. That means that in one of every twenty simulations, one of Army and Navy finishes the year with at least one loss but also finishes the year as the fifth-highest ranked conference champion.
“At least one of the two make the playoff? At least?”
Yes.
At least.
It’s highly unlikely that both Army and Navy could make the playoff field. Such a scenario came up in only three of our most recent 10,000 simulations. In one of those, Rutgers ended up as the 2-seed. You see some weird stuff when you simulate the season 10,000 different times. Still, it’s technically possible, and the way in which it could happen illustrates why the timing of the Army/Navy game is probably an advantage for these two teams.
The way both Army and Navy made the playoff, in all three of those simulations, is that one finished the regular season 11–0 while the other finished 10–1. A pair of 11–0 records would also work, but that’s not what happened. It was 11–0 and 10–1. In all three cases, the 10–1 team lost to an AAC opponent who lost at least twice themselves. In all three cases, the AAC Championship became Army vs. Navy. In all three cases, the 10–1 team beat the 11–0 team, leaving both 11–1. One of them was a conference champion. The other had only lost to a one-loss AAC team. In all three simulations, both Army and Navy had beaten Notre Dame. In all three simulations, there was enough chaos elsewhere that the committee opted to include both service academies in the twelve-team field. Again: 0.03%. That’s what three in 10,000 means.
How does this illustrate an advantage? Because those numbers are 10–1 and 11–0, not 11–1 and 12–0. Thanks to the timing of the Army/Navy game—one week after the conference championships, when conference titles are already decided—Army and Navy only play eleven regular season games. They have one fewer chance to lose than everybody else. Based on what limited information we have—mostly from 2020 and from early-season rankings when teams haven’t all finished their bye weeks—it seems losses matter disproportionately more than wins in the playoff selection process. This makes sense, intuitively. For teams in playoff contention, defeat is a rarer thing than victory.
Army plays Temple tonight in a nationally televised game. I have no idea what ESPN’s commentators will say about Army’s playoff chances, but given the Black Knights are a double-digit favorite and given they’re 3–0, I’m assuming the playoff will come up. I’m curious how it’ll be framed.
It wouldn’t surprise me if there’s talk about a “disadvantage” facing Army and Navy because they play their historic rivalry when they do. The logic would go that if Army or Navy were to make the playoff, it would hurt them to play their biggest game of the season, the most emotional contest of these guys’ careers—while their opponent rests. It’s not false that this could theoretically be a disadvantage. But any hypothetical disadvantage to playing during their opponent’s bye week is vastly outweighted by how much the decision helps the pair in the first place their pursuit of a playoff bid. Play the game before the committee makes its call, and that 5.7% chance one of the two makes the playoff field drops by roughly a quarter. It helps to have fewer opportunities to lose.
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We got our Week 5 preview up late last night, so if you’re looking for more on this weekend’s impending action, there it is. We’ll be back tomorrow with what’ll most likely be a look at how the value of going undefeated has changed.
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