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Georgia is, most likely, the best team in the country. They were the best team in the country three years ago. They were the best team in the country two years ago. They may have been the best team in the country last year, but they blew it in the SEC Championship. A safe bet in college football is that Georgia is the best team in the country.
How good, though, can they be?
Five different levels, ahead of tonight’s business trip to Lexington:
1. Georgia Isn’t That Good
This is the most unlikely possibility, but it’s possible Georgia is suddenly a paper tiger. This happens to every dynasty eventually. It really doesn’t look like this will be the year Georgia is merely a top-20 team, but it’s theoretically possible. Maybe they had a great gameplan for Clemson and things don’t click from here. Again, this is the most unlikely possibility.
2. Georgia Is Good but Falls Apart
Unfortunately more likely, there is a possibility where the wheels fall off. Possibly literally. On Thursday, sophomore cornerback Daniel Harris (second-stringer, four-star) became the latest Bulldog to get arrested for a traffic violation, charged with reckless driving after allegedly passing two cars in the rain at 106 mph.
This happens at other programs too, but it’s inconceivable that it happens with the same regularity for many other teams as it does for Georgia. Maybe other counties’ police departments are letting some things go. I’m sure these incidents are more heavily reported because of Georgia’s notoriety and the narrative surrounding the Bulldog program. But to reiterate what we continue to say every time shit like this happens: That narrative exists because a Georgia recruiting staffer died allegedly racing Jalen Carter while drunk after UGA’s national championship parade in early 2023. Since then, at least twenty Georgia players have been arrested or cited for vehicle-related incidents. That is insane, and Kirby Smart can talk about everything Georgia’s doing to curb the issue, but the fact it keeps happening shows that everything Georgia’s doing isn’t enough. Smart is miscalculating. You can’t miscalculate with people’s lives.
There are far more serious risks at stake than an 8–4 season, but an 8–4 season is possible through this scenario more than the first. If players keep rolling the dice at the level Harris allegedly rolled them, the death toll will climb. You would hope changes preempt that rather than coming in response. Given someone already died from this sort of thing, the fear is that the changes won’t even come in response.
3. Georgia Is Last Year’s Georgia
Getting back to more palatable territory: Maybe Georgia is one of the best teams in the country, or maybe even the best team in the country, but loses a game or two at the worst time. Maybe they beat Texas in Austin but lose to them in Atlanta, or maybe they go 13–0 but lose to Mississippi or Alabama in a rematch in the playoff’s second round. College football is less a single or double-elimination sport than it was last year, but it still can be a single-elimination sport depending when the single loss comes.
4. Georgia Wins It All
Think of 2021’s Georgia with this one, a team good enough to win it all but not an old-school, undefeated national champion. I don’t think this is as statistically likely as our previous scenario, but it’s a heavy possibility. Georgia is the favorite for a reason.
5. Georgia Is the Best College Football Team Ever
We’ve had a lot of arguable best teams ever in recent years. 2018 Clemson. 2019 LSU. 2022 Georgia. 2020 Alabama, perhaps? 2009 Alabama, if we go further back. Undefeated champions who win almost every game soundly are not a rarity in college football. Oftentimes, we have a clear national champ, and in today’s version of the sport—one with some of the highest competitive efficiency ever and the best and most resourced athletes to every play the game—that oftentimes puts teams in the “best team ever” conversation.
All three of this year’s three core national title contenders fit the proper shape. For two of them—Texas and Georgia—a 16–0 campaign against a schedule at the level they’ll face would be one heck of an argument.
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One correction: Yesterday’s edition of College Football Morning indicated last night’s game between UNLV and Kansas was taking place in Lawrence. It was not in Lawrence. It was in Kansas City at a semi-neutral site.
As for that game:
I’m glad everyone who watched got to experience Matthew Sluka. I’m glad everyone will now have more reasons to watch Matthew Sluka. It’s not that Matthew Sluka is good. It’s that he’s good enough to make you wonder if he’s good. He runs around with his head cut off, and it often works. To his credit: His passing numbers would have been better without the drop.
With that win, UNLV’s playoff probability is up to 1-in-7 entering today’s games, having entered the week at 1-in-12. That 1-in-7 number is third-highest in the Group of Five and stands a good chance of passing Memphis today for second.
In the arguably more consequential result, Kansas State pounded Arizona. We knew this was possible, and we don’t yet know whether it says more about the Wildcats or the Wildcats, but it was a big win. Movelor now has K-State up to 12th in the country, and the Cats are one of nine teams with a playoff likelihood greater than 50%. They’re the only team on that list who isn’t from the Big Ten or SEC.
We’ll have more context for these games in tomorrow morning’s recap, but that’s the early read on their impact. Go have a good day today.
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Weekend resources and our team-specific posts:
- Our model’s Movelor ratings and College Football Playoff probabilities
- Our model’s CFP Bracketology
- Movelor’s Week 3 picks
- Cyclone State, with a look at ISU’s backloaded Big 12 schedule
- Good Things Shrewing, with more on the Riley Leonard situation and what Notre Dame needs to worry about with Purdue
- BFN, where NIT Stu has an idea for the Texas/UTSA relationship
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