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For posterity’s sake, some prevailing college football narratives as we enter this week’s semifinals:
- The SEC is no longer top dog.
- Ohio State is a historically great football team.
- Penn State has broken through.
- Notre Dame has broken through.
All four of these claims are suspect. The SEC still has a team in this playoff. Ohio State is a two-loss team and lost (at home) to Michigan six weeks ago. Penn State reached the semi’s by beating the 20th and 31st-best teams in Division I football. Notre Dame reached the semi’s by beating Georgia’s backup quarterback.
Still, it’s hard to imagine a better college football performance than what Ohio State’s shown in its first two playoff games. Texas does look a little dead to rights, and as a first-year SEC program, the Longhorns occupy a different category from Georgia and Alabama. Notre Dame faces its best title chance since either 2012 or 1993. And with Penn State’s last championship coming six years before even the Bowl Coalition existed, there’s a 50/50 shot the Nittany Lions reach their first ever formal national championship game. We can all be forgiven for getting a little dramatic.
National championships have value beyond the championship itself. One such prize is that winning them makes people take you seriously. For all four teams still in this, that aspiration is key. This is a desperate final four. For Notre Dame, Penn State, and Texas, it’s a shot at liberation after years as the butt of jokes. For Ryan Day, college football’s second-winningest coach over his career, it’s a chance to be known as more than Ohio State’s NIL budget.
Over the next few days, two teams will keep that shot at glory and legitimization alive. In the end, though, only one’s going to earn its title and reset the clock on its own dignity. The other three will return home to abodes of insecurity, not knowing when or if they’ll next get an opportunity like this.
College football is at its best when it feels like the loser is watching a loved one die.
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Notre Dame, Penn State, and the Spiderman Meme
Perhaps you’ve seen the image of two Spidermen in a standoff, each indistinguishable from the other. If not, we won’t dwell on it long, because this is a blog post about college football, not a blog post written explaining internet culture touchstones.
Where we’re going with this meme talk is that Notre Dame and Penn State run adjacent to one another in the modern college football landscape. Each is an iconic program, sharing peers like Michigan, USC, and Alabama. Each is consistently nationally competitive, routinely ranked in the single digits. Neither has been a national championship threat in recent years, and questions hound both regarding whether a national championship is even possible.
Michigan could have also fit the meme until one year ago last night, when the Wolverines finally broke through and won a national title. Of all Michigan’s haters, I’m not sure Big Blue’s victory stung worse for anyone besides these two.
There were three elements to this. First, Michigan pulled away from Penn State and leapfrogged Notre Dame in the national pecking order, where the Irish had recently outranked the Wolverines when it came to modern achievements, having at least played for that national championship in 2012. When the hill looks Sisyphean, every inch lost cuts deep. Second, Michigan figured out a championship-winning formula which Notre Dame and Penn State could have theoretically figured out themselves. There was a season in which you didn’t need top-five talent to win a title, and the program who captured the moment came from Ann Arbor, not South Bend or State College. An opportunity was lost. Third, Michigan’s formula wasn’t a formula that should work going forward. It wasn’t replicable. Thanks to a once–in–a–century pandemic, Michigan got five years to develop its offensive line. It needed every week within those years to edge Alabama in the Rose Bowl.
When Michigan won their title, Penn State and Notre Dame were both left behind. Penn State and Notre Dame were both left kicking themselves. Penn State and Notre Dame were both left without even the consolation prize a blueprint would have afforded them. Michigan winning their title sucked for Penn State and Notre Dame.
If the winner of this game does pull off the upset in Atlanta, the frustration for the other should be similarly immense. This doesn’t seem particularly likely right now—Ohio State will probably beat Texas then find itself a touchdown favorite in the championship—but the possibility exists, and it’s scary. Even if the winner does go on to lose, losing will hurt worse for the loser than if they’d lost to Georgia, Ohio State, or Alabama. Both Notre Dame and Penn State should and do expect to beat the other. Notre Dame is slightly more talented and has been the slightly better team. Penn State is healthier and has measured itself against tougher tests than the Irish.
Who’s going to actually do it? Movelor, our model’s power rating system, favors the Irish. Betting markets agree, though they’re two or three points more hesitant than our spreadsheets. (Notably, these markets seem to believe Abdul Carter’s availability for Penn State is worth at least one point.) Very few outcomes would surprise, including a blowout in either direction. We think these teams are about as good as one another, but links between their games this year are weak. The uncertainty margin is higher here than it will be if Ohio State and Penn State rematch eleven nights from now.
Much has been made of Notre Dame’s turnover margin, the second-best in the country heading into tonight. Less has been made of an Irish secondary which has allowed the third-fewest yards per pass attempt, trailing only (pertinently) Texas and Ohio State within the FBS. This is a big deal for the matchup ahead. For all the focus on Nick Singleton and Fatman Allen, Penn State’s been more efficient this year throwing the ball than they have been running it. Penn State leans on the run to set up big gains through the air.
This growth—the development of a competent passing game—was the promise when Penn State replaced Mike Yurcich with Andy Kotelnicki. Kotelnicki was expected to unlock Drew Allar’s potential, and with some help from Tyler Warren, that’s what he’s done. Allar was considered by many to be a lost cause as recently as twelve months ago. Now, he’s probably the second-best quarterback left in the playoff, and he could conceivably be a top-three pick if two things break in a very specific direction. (1. He declares. 2. The Browns and Giants both decide they need a top-three quarterback.)
Bringing things back down to earth, Penn State is weak out wide, and that means that for as effective as Allar and Warren have been, it’s hard to see Allar and Warren tearing up Notre Dame the way they tore up USC. Against Georgia, Al Golden had to make a conscious choice to sacrifice Christian Gray, a respectable cornerback but the closest thing to a weak link in the Irish defense. Against Penn State, the matchup plays more to Notre Dame’s strengths. Warren is Penn State’s best player. Safety Xavier Watts is the best player on the Fighting Irish. Watts will likely be in charge of Warren on a lot of plays. With a strong pass rush confronting the emotional Allar, Penn State’s quarterback is going to need to combine effectiveness with the proper level of caution. Get too careful, and the sack count’s going to rise. Gunsling too willingly, and that Irish turnover margin is going to close in on first place nationally.
Can Penn State run the ball up the middle tonight? Possibly. Notre Dame’s defensive line health was a concern before the Sugar Bowl, and it got worse, with Howard Cross’s heavily taped ankle figuring to get a lot of action from ESPN cameras. We spoke before that game about how Georgia’s offensive line wasn’t as good as its talent suggested it should be. Still, Notre Dame stuffed Georgia’s rushing attack for almost the whole game, and while Watts might be occupied with Warren, co-conspirator Adon Shuler showed what he’s willing to do to a running back on the one drive where the Bulldogs did run the ball successfully.
What’s the deal with Carter? He’s a monster on the defensive line. A junior out of Philadelphia, Carter’s expected to be a top-ten pick. He’s also hurt. Something happened to his left arm or shoulder early in the Fiesta Bowl. He missed most of the game and didn’t show up on the stat sheet. It sounds like he’ll play, per comments James Franklin made yesterday, but it isn’t guaranteed. Notre Dame had a hard time containing Mykel Williams. Carter is considered the better player.
Jeremiyah Love, a lightning-fast running back and 2025 Heisman hopeful, is banged up for the Irish, but as others at The Barking Crow are quick to point out, Notre Dame’s running back room runs deep. The more important figure back there is Riley Leonard, Notre Dame’s running quarterback. Against Georgia, the Irish abandoned all pretense and let Leonard play battering ram. Penn State’s probably better against both the run and the pass than the SEC champions, but Leonard’s a unique figure, taller than Carter and often involved in the same Mike Denbrock schemes which helped Jayden Daniels win his Heisman in 2023. Maybe Tom Allen sends everybody after Leonard, trying to force the quarterback to hand it off and attempt throws over the top. Maybe this lets Jadarian Price break some touchdown runs, or results in a big passing day from Leonard. But maybe it racks up the hits on Leonard, puts Notre Dame on its heels, and creates opportunities for turnovers of Penn State’s own. Notre Dame hasn’t had to play from behind much. If Penn State can get this offense on its heels, Leonard will find himself in uncomfortable terrain. That’s a big part of how the NIU loss went down.
Texas, Ohio State, and How You Use Your Talent
The spark notes on Ohio State are these: Spectacular talent. Mercurial quarterback. Enigmatic coach.
The spark notes on Texas are these: Excellent talent. Underwhelming effectiveness. A lesser-known quantity at head coach.
In a talent-off, Ohio State wins this comparison. Texas’s offense might be a little bigger, but Ohio State’s is faster, and on the defensive side, Ohio State wins when it comes to strength. Making matters worse for Texas, Ohio State has been a finer-tuned machine over the course of this year, even when you include that loss to Michigan in Columbus. Twisting the knife? Texas’s biggest head-to-head advantage, Quinn Ewers over Will Howard, is partly negated by Ewers’s health, or lack thereof.
Battling an ankle injury and suspected of still dealing with issues in his oblique, Ewers knows what he’s doing on a football field. He’s managed his limitations mostly effectively. But asking him to throw deep means courting disaster, and Steve Sarkisian appears uncomfortable leaving him vulnerable to too many big hits. That’s especially going to be a problem against the Buckeyes, who’ve sacked quarterbacks at a higher rate than anybody else in the country.
I don’t know that it’s accurate to say Ohio State’s defense has a weakness, but if one does exist, it’s probably the run game. The Buckeyes’ defensive line might be the best in the sport, but once teams get into the linebacking corps, there’s at least a chance. That said, Texas would feel better about its chances on the ground if Cameron Williams and Kelvin Banks Jr. were at full health.
While I’ll concede I’m hungry for a Sarkisian-designed package that really gets wild with Arch Manning, the way Texas wins this Cotton Bowl almost has to revolve around a perfect game from Ewers. Ewers needs to dink and dunk and avoid losing yards on early downs. Ewers needs to make the right read every time, keep it himself now and then and weather a few hits, and make the throws he chooses to try. Texas cannot afford inaccurate moonballs lofted towards double coverage. They got away with it against Arizona State in the end. Ohio State is a lot, lot better than Arizona State.
On the opposite side of the ball, Texas does have a chance of rattling Will Howard. Howard made all the throws he had to make against Tennessee and Oregon, but he was throwing to the widest-open of receivers. Texas is better than Tennessee and Oregon, especially in the secondary. Malik Muhammad concerns exist, but Jahdae Barron won the Jim Thorpe Award, Andrew Mukuba has five picks this year, and Michael Taffe is a little bit like Ewers—not exceptionally physically gifted, but built around a football IQ which registers off the charts.
Expect Jeremiah Smith to be open. Expect Emeka Egbuka to be open. Expect Carnell Tate to be open. But don’t expect them to be as open as they were against Tennessee and Oregon, and expect Texas to put Howard in scarier positions than the Volunteers and Ducks managed to do. Sometimes, Howard has absolutely thrived in big moments. Sometimes, Howard has combusted. Often, he’s done both within the same game: Texas in 2023. Oregon in 2024. Penn State in 2024. Howard’s been great for two straight showings now, and those showings matter. But they’re still just two games. Provoke enough combustion, and again, the Longhorns have a chance.
Theoretically, Ohio State suffers some susceptibility on the offensive line. Don’t be surprised to see a big Colin Simmons moment or two in the backfield, whether it comes against Howard, Quinshon Judkins, or TreVeyon Henderson. ESPN’s Simmons vs. Smith graphic (the pair finished first and second in Freshman of the Year voting) might see a lot of action.
The bottom line? Texas is overmatched more when Texas has the ball than when Ohio State has the ball. Ohio State’s offense against Texas’s defense is fun. Ohio State’s defense against Texas’s offense has massacre potential. When it comes to avoiding the worst-case scenario, a lot rests on Ewers. Thankfully, quarterbacks possess a lot of leverage in football games.
Zooming out, we already talked a little about what this game means for Ryan Day. This is about washing away the Michigan losing streak, or at least taking some of the air out of that particular balloon. This is about separating his legacy from Urban Meyer’s, and from the nearly unparalleled resources he enjoys in Columbus. For Ohio State as a whole, this game is supposed to be proof of concept. The other three extremely talented programs are Texas (the opponent this week), Georgia (whom a less talented Notre Dame eliminated), and Alabama (who might be headed back into the dark ages). Handle business these next two games, and Ohio State proves that talent is still the fuel on which programs run, and that their driver is capable enough to harness all that octane.
What about Texas? For Texas, this was supposed to be a month spent blossoming. Texas was supposed to break out this year, stepping into lockstep with Georgia while enjoying every favorable wind in the world. Sarkisian was supposed to identify himself as America’s best college football coach. Ewers was supposed to contend for the Heisman, then hand the reigns to the brilliant Arch Manning. Texas was supposed to make professional football work in the college ranks.
Instead, Texas is a little underwhelming. Texas has a little sand in its gears. Texas isn’t dealing with any distractions on the level of the Tom Herman era, but the Longhorns again face questions regarding program-wide focus. Sarkisian hasn’t won many big games as head coach, but he’s new enough that there isn’t much of a sample there. These things are concerning, sure. But they aren’t terrifying. What’s terrifying is that Sarkisian is reportedly a target for some NFL franchises, and that thanks to (reportedly) the headaches of modern politics, Texas’s university president has peaced out, abandoning the public side of education for comfort at SMU. Chris Del Conte’s the best athletic director in the country, but he doesn’t get to hire the university president, and if you want to see how even the best gameplan for a program can end up in mediocrity, check out Longhorn men’s basketball.
In short, this is a can’t-miss moment for Texas. Likelier than not, they miss it.
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Over on the carousels…
There was a brief moment yesterday where it looked like Steve Belichick might coach UNC sooner than previously believed. Among others, Tom Brady and the Raiders reportedly reached out to Bill Belichick to gauge his interest in a return to the NFL. Belichick reportedly declined the overtures. Maybe he’s committed to UNC. Maybe working with a terrible GM in Jacksonville, a less–rich owner in Las Vegas, a dysfunctional organization in Chicago, a dysfunctional organization in New York, or a team in salary cap hell in New Orleans just isn’t all that appealing. (I know people thought he wanted the Jets job. Maybe he did. The other four barbs stand.)
Matt Campbell is reportedly interviewing with the Bears, one of at least fourteen people the organization has pursued for a meeting. As an Iowa State fan, Campbell’s departure would be crushing. Campbell has done so well at Iowa State that he’s made people think he’s not doing well at Iowa State. He changed the baseline in Ames, to the point where people now criticize him for not doing more (forgetting in the process that this program had never won ten games before 2024). I also…don’t think he’d be a very good NFL head coach? He struggles with game management, something heavily scrutinized at the NFL level and capable of sinking a coach’s boat. He’s a little corny and hokey, and while he seems genuine, what works with three-star athletes from Harley won’t necessarily work with divas like Caleb Williams and DJ Moore. Maybe Campbell would excel finally coaching the best athletes in the sport, but that’s a narrow angle. This seems like a terrible idea for the Bears. This being the Bears, that makes me fear it’s really going to happen.
On the quarterback side, Tyler Van Dyke committed to SMU yesterday, returning to Rhett Lashlee, his one-time offensive coordinator at Miami. Kevin Jennings isn’t going anywhere, so the assumption is Van Dyke will be a backup. If Van Dyke fully recovers from his knee injury, though: Would he be a better option? Jennings was electric but he was also occasionally a huge mess, and when he did get messy, he got messy at the wrong time. I’m not sure anyone’s ever had more passing success in a Lashlee offense than Van Dyke did in 2021. If he’s fully healthy, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him end 2025 as the starting quarterback for the ACC champions, finally fulfilling his destiny.
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We’ll have reactions tomorrow to whatever happens tonight. We’ll also be ready to react to a postponed Cotton Bowl if the expected snowstorm turns into ice.
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