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It’s hard to remember every detail about how the College Football Playoff works. For example: Every few days, I forget whether expansion to 14 teams is or isn’t coming, and if so, when. (Answer, which I just had to look up: It’s unconfirmed but expected, and it would begin with the 2026 season’s playoff, not next year’s.)
The most confusion-inducing thing about this year’s 12-team format is whether a Group of Five conference champion can receive a bye. They can, and most college football diehards have internalized that by now, but every now and then, a talking head gets it wrong or at least gets confused. The answer to our titular question, in a technical sense:
Yes. In this year’s College Football Playoff format, a Group of Five conference champion can receive a top-four seed and a first-round bye. Byes go to the four highest-ranked conference champions. It doesn’t matter which conference they won.
Will it happen, though?
This second question—not whether it can happen, but whether it might—is entering a trendy moment in the college football blogosphere. Army and Navy are both undefeated with Notre Dame still on each schedule. Boise State only lost by a field goal to the current Big Ten favorite. I’m not sure a mid-major bye is actually likelier than it was earlier in the year—the Big 12 and ACC each have two undefeated teams, Clemson is playing well with one loss, and no mid-major can get to the selection show at 13–0—but it’s easier to picture than it was in August.
So, since we have our model’s simulations, let’s check the numbers: Will a Group of Five champion get a bye in the College Football Playoff?
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It’s not likely, but it’s more than a fringe possibility. In 24% of simulations, a Group of Five team does receive that coveted top-four spot. There are even 64 simulations—out of ten thousand, mind you—where two Group of Five teams get byes. Boise State does it the most often—15% of simulations feature a Boise State bye; no other mid-major is higher than 2%—but there are so many teams with at least a tiny angle that there’s a one-in-four chance some Group of Five team pulls this off. There’s a one-in-four chance some Group of Five team enters the playoff as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions in the country.
How does it happen?
The Big 12 has depth, but that can be a problem for a conference commissioner. If a mid-major gets a bye, it’s likeliest that the Big 12 is the odd conference out. In 57% of scenarios with a mid-major top-four seed, the Big 12 champion is not in the top four. In 34% of those scenarios, the ACC gets left off the bye line. The SEC and Big Ten are not immune, suffering the fate a respective 5% and 4% of the time. But the Big 12 takes the hit most often. It’s not the conference favorite these leagues have to worry about. It’s who could reach the conference championship and topple that favorite.
This is not a universal law—the committee is subjective, so few laws are universal—but generally, playing in a Group of Five conference is worth about one loss to the playoff committee. What I mean by this is that a 12–1 Boise State should be expected to be viewed comparably to an 11–2 Kansas State or SMU, and should expected to be viewed more kindly than a 10–3 Louisville. There are nuances, but that’s the idea.
What this means is that Boise State needs to hope on two-loss or three-loss conference champions. What that means is that Boise State needs to hope on two-loss or three-loss regular season runners up. This second piece is important. BYU and Miami both going 12–0 doesn’t spell doom for Boise State. For Boise State to get the bye, the Big 12 or ACC’s regular season champion doesn’t need to lose twice or three times or even once. In most simulations where Boise State gets the bye, it’s the regular season’s second-place team pulling off a conference championship upset and relegating a highly-ranked 12–1 or 11–2 team to an at-large bid.
The best thing for Boise State is not necessarily Iowa State or BYU or Miami or Pitt losing again in the regular season. The best thing for Boise State is someone like SMU, Louisville, or Texas Tech getting into their conference championship with a 10–2 or 9–3 record overall. Those three teams are specifically enticing because they each have a nonconference loss, one which weakens their playoff résumé but doesn’t affect their place in the conference standings. Texas Tech could go 7–2 in Big 12 play and finish the regular season 9–3 overall. That’s a good ally for the Broncos.
We mentioned that 0.64% chance that two Group of Five teams receive byes. There are more scenarios where two Group of Five teams make the playoff, with only one receiving a bye. Do the Big 12 and ACC league offices need to be worried about missing the playoff entirely?
No.
It could happen, but the probability is 1% for the ACC and 2% for the Big 12. Based on what we know right now, those conferences have a better chance of sending three teams to the playoff than none. There are more scenarios where their champion misses it, but in a decent share of those, someone from the conference at least gets an at-large bid, kind of like how TCU made the playoff two years ago after losing the Big 12 title game.
In sum: 1-in-4 chance a Group of Five team gets a bye. 15% chance Boise State specifically gets a bye. 3% chance either the ACC or the Big 12 misses the playoff entirely.
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Our stuff from the weekend:
- Updated CFP Bracketology, from our model.
- Wins Above Bubble, and two other approaches to a top 25.
- Updated playoff probabilities.
- Movelor’s Week 8 spreads.
- NIT Stu’s College Football Vibe Check.
More on Notre Dame (the impact of the Benjamin Morrison injury), Texas (whether the Longhorns should try to make the Red River Rivalry non-annual), and Iowa State (midseason takeaways) later today and tonight. Bark.
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