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My first memory of watching Colin Kaepernick play football comes from a 2010 late-season game in the WAC. Boise State entered Reno 11–0, 3rd in the BCS standings. Nevada was 10–1 itself, ranked 19th. The further temperatures dropped, the more Mackay Stadium became a madhouse, Nevada’s own fans answered loudly by a sizable contingent wearing blue and orange, emboldened by Thanksgiving weekend to make the trip.
At halftime of that game, the Broncos led 24–7, and it appeared we’d have business as usual in the Western Athletic Conference. Boise State was an annual force by this point, winners of 70 of their last 72 WAC games. This was the moment Boise State’s western mid-major dynasty peaked. Because coming out of the locker room, Kaepernick led the Wolf Pack back, ultimately upsetting Boise State with the help of an uncharacteristic pair of missed Kyle Brotzman field goals. The first of those, a game-winning attempt at the end of regulation, I remember as a controversial call. Mackay Stadium’s goalposts were on the shorter side.
The game was a classic, and as one responded to instant college football classics in 2010, my 16-year-old self went and “liked” Colin Kaepernick on Facebook before I went to bed. For years, Colin Kaepernick was included in my “likes,” not because of my personal opinions on police brutality (I am anti-brutality, for the record) but because that game was so much fun. If you have eighteen minutes, or even just one or two, here’s a long set of highlights.
Boise State would not have won the national championship had they won that game. Auburn and Oregon both finished the season undefeated playing more challenging schedules than what Boise State faced. The four-team playoff wouldn’t have come any faster had Boise State cracked the BCS title game, and the twelve-team playoff—the one which now guarantees at least one mid-major a spot—probably wouldn’t have arrived any sooner either. But that hypothetical undefeated 2010 Boise State, the one in the universe where Brotzman makes the kick? That’s the kind of team who needs to be in the College Football Playoff.
Boise State’s more famous team, the 2006 Broncos who finished 13–0 and Statue of Liberty-ed Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, was not the best team in the country. In back-testing, they finish that year 18th in Movelor, our model’s rating system. Oklahoma finishes 7th. Invent a time machine, and Oklahoma’s favored in that rematch, as are more than a dozen other teams. 2010 Boise State? Had the Broncos beaten Nevada, they would have finished the year rated as the best team in all of college football. They wouldn’t have won the national championship, but they would have been the best. Movelor’s top five at the end of the 2010 campaign goes Oklahoma, Boise State, TCU, Auburn, Oregon. There’s a margin of error with these things, and the quintet was separated by less than a field goal, with Ohio State in the same mix. But there’s a chance Boise State or TCU was the best team in the country when that season ended. TCU went undefeated and should have earned a chance to prove themselves. Boise State didn’t, but came very close to the same fate.
In the seasons following 2010, Boise State wasn’t the same. Chris Petersen put together another one-loss season the next year, but the Broncos weren’t what they so recently had been, and in 2012, they lost multiple games for only the second time in Petersen’s tenure. They were still good throughout the Bryan Harsin years, but they weren’t what they were in the late 2000’s. From Petersen’s debut season in 2006 through that final 12–1 record in 2011, Boise State finishes in Movelor’s top 25 in every single time. From 2009 through 2011, they always finish in the top ten. Today? Well, they’re good again, but they’re not quite in Movelor’s top 25, and ESPN’s FPI and SP+ average out to a 30th-place ranking for the Broncos right now. Today’s Boise State is nowhere near what we once saw on that blue turf.
Still, in a lot of ways, this twelve-team playoff was built for Boise State. It was built for TCU too, and for Utah and UCF, and of course for television executives and Greg Sankey’s butler. But the point of this twelve-team playoff, the redeeming thing when looking through a college football institutionalist lens, is that it makes sure we’re not accidentally excluding the best and most deserving team in the country. College football’s greatest asset as a sport has always been its drive to name the best and most deserving team the champion. It hasn’t always worked, but the industry has constantly worked towards achieving that objective, something unique in an American sporting landscape which consistently prioritizes entertainment over competition. I’m concerned college football’s getting away from this. There weren’t many national title implications to Alabama/Georgia, Oregon/Ohio State, and Texas/Georgia, exciting as two of those games were in the moment. But the redeeming thing about this setup, besides that entertainment value, is that Boise State will get a chance if they’re the best.
Provided they can earn it.
Provided they don’t get knocked off by Colin Kaepernick on Black Friday in Reno.
Speaking of that game…
Boise State goes to Nevada tomorrow night! It’s not Reno, and the Friday isn’t Black, but Boise State plays a University of Nevada football team, and there’s a playoff bid in the balance. It’s UNLV this time hosting the big blue Broncos from Boise. All eyes turn to the Mountain West.
UNLV’s drawn plenty of attention of its own this year, and for those wondering, I would say that yes, Hajj-Malik Williams has outplayed Matthew Sluka at quarterback. It’s not an easy comparison, because the competition has been different, but UNLV’s passing game has improved and Williams has been as capable a runner as we expected, even if he hasn’t been a “turn your head and watch” guy like Sluka is when a play starts to break down. UNLV’s solid! Movelor, FPI, and SP+ rate them somewhere between 40th and 60th in the country, of similar capability to someone like TCU, aimed towards a 7–5 finish playing in the Big 12. The Rebels did lose to Syracuse—that was their loss—and Syracuse isn’t phenomenal and the loss came at home. But within the Expanded Group of Five (Go5 plus Pac-12, non-ND independents, and the FCS), Movelor rates UNLV the fifth-best team. They’re high-octane offensively. Defensively, they’re probably pretty weak, with questions surrounding whether they can keep their turnover margin as high as it currently is, the third-largest in the FBS.
Boise State? They’re probably the best team in that Expanded Group of Five, though it does depend on whom you ask. SP+ has Army ahead of the Broncos by half a point, and FPI doesn’t publish its FCS ratings (if it has them) but I doubt FPI has NDSU or SDSU ranked better than 22nd in Division I. I haven’t checked the Heisman odds yet this week, but I’d imagine running back Ashton Jeanty is either the favorite or only narrowly behind Cam Ward, with more touchdowns per game than anyone in the country and a mind-blowing 9.9 yards per carry to his name. Oregon isn’t known for its front seven, but it still says something that Jeanty managed 192 rushing yards against the Ducks. One would imagine Boise State’s plan is to hand the ball off, clear space (their offensive line is not discussed enough), and let Jeanty cook. He’s had a week off to rest his legs after Hawaii threw everything it had at him and held him to his lowest yards-per-carry on the season. This is Ashton Jeanty’s chance to chase the Heisman.
What happens if UNLV puts nine in the box and simply gives its safeties the night off? As much as I want to see someone try that, it’s probably a bad idea. Maddux Madsen isn’t great, but he’s generally played within himself this year, understanding that the role of Boise State’s passing game is not to make plays itself but to keep defenses honest enough to give Jeanty what little space he needs. My hunch is that you can probably rattle Madsen, and UNLV’s secondary would love to put Madsen in the same blender they used to chop up Mikey Keene. But the identity Spencer Danielson brought to Boise State’s head coaching role when he took it over last year was one of simplicity and physicality. It’s not working for Danielson on the defensive side of the ball—Boise State is weak over there, though at least not as flimsy as their hosts—but offensively, it’s going great. This offense is on par with units like Kansas State’s and SMU’s, even with a limited quarterback.
What does the game mean for the season? In our model’s latest simulations, Boise State makes the playoff 72% of the time with a victory and 14% of the time in defeat. For UNLV, those numbers are 42% and 2%. The winner of this game will be the Group of Five favorite.
One note on those probabilities, since we’ll be mentioning them in conjunction with a lot more games: Our model still doesn’t have any conference tiebreakers programmed in yet. We’ll start adding those in specific, relevant scenarios this weekend, but we’re at the point where that might be affecting a few things, so we wanted to mention it. It shouldn’t be affecting anything too majorly, and we’re more concerned with teams’ at-large chances than their automatic bid hopes, but we want to be transparent. We want to earn your trust.
Moving on.
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The Other Big Games
LSU at Texas A&M
Going over to the SEC: After primetime losses on Labor Day Weekend, LSU and Texas A&M are each unbeaten. Those losses are different, LSU’s more damaging both at the time and now (I think that brief stint of USC relevance has warped a lot of memories when it comes to the Trojans’ preseason expectations), and their paths to 6–1 have also been different, LSU’s more prominent between that crazy South Carolina game and the win over Mississippi. Each has looked terrible at times (A&M had an uncomfortable time against Bowling Green) and great in other moments. Each has played well lately, turning this game into one of unexpected playoff consequence.
It’s hard to know if Conner Weigman’s an issue for Texas A&M or not. He was highly effective against Missouri, but he struggled against Mississippi State, much as he did against Notre Dame before spending most of September out with an injury. As expected, defense is A&M’s calling card so far under Mike Elko, while Brian Kelly’s offense hasn’t missed much of a beat with Jayden Daniels in the NFL and Mike Denbrock back in South Bend. An issue for A&M here is that LSU’s defense is more vulnerable to the pass than the run, and A&M’s probably a little stronger on the ground.
It’s another big game in College Station. The winner’s the last unbeaten SEC team in conference play. The loser’s well on their way to a playoff race exit. Kyle Field is going to be rocking under the Saturday night lights.
Playoff probabilities:
- LSU: 47% with a win, 11% with a loss.
- Texas A&M: 22% with a win, 2% with a loss.
Notre Dame vs. Navy
Is Navy one of the 25 best teams in the country? No. Unless…
We aren’t quarreling for a second with Navy’s top-25 ranking. They’re one of the 25 most accomplished teams in the country, and while the biggest reason the AP poll sucks is that it doesn’t define what it’s ranking, we’d prefer to rank accomplishment at this stage in the season. Navy’s 13th in Wins Above Bubble and 24th in our approximation of the CFP rankings.
When the NCAA banned cut blocking outside the tackle box, Army and Navy were in trouble. It’s hard to build big offensive lines at the service academies. Penei Sewell would be less useful in war today than he would have been in the days before gunpowder. Paradoxically, this is starting to work out? By being forced into reinvention, Army and Navy suddenly boast highly efficient offenses, trailing only Boise State in yards per rush attempt despite running the ball more often than anyone else in the country. They’re also tops in passing yards per attempt, and while Bryson Daily’s deserving of Heisman attention up at West Point, Midshipman Blake Horvath is putting up big numbers of his own in Annapolis.
This will be a new kind of test for Navy.
Memphis is a worthy foe, 50th in Movelor and averaging a 61st-place ranking across SP+ and FPI. That still isn’t great, though, and Navy caught Memphis immediately after the Florida State upset. Aside from Memphis, Navy hasn’t played anybody of any sort of note. Their other three AAC opponents have been UAB, Charlotte, and Temple, three of the worst four teams in the league. Air Force is comparably horrible. Bucknell’s the worst team in one of the worst FCS conferences. Notre Dame might not be top-five good, like Movelor has them, but they’ve achieved final scores like they are, and that includes the debacle against NIU. Notre Dame’s six wins have come by an average of 27 points. They beat Texas A&M on the road by two possessions. Notre Dame is good. Navy hasn’t seen anyone like Notre Dame this year.
Theoretically, Navy should be able to prepare pretty well for Riley Leonard. If there’s any program that can ready itself for a mobile quarterback with big unpolished tools, it’s Army or Navy. But unless Notre Dame outsmarts itself, the Irish should roll Navy here, and that should be the end of the undefeated Navy dream. Notre Dame might outsmart itself—that’s been a hallmark of the Marcus Freeman era despite general success overall—and as the NIU game showed, a big play or two can flip a whole Saturday. But unless Notre Dame comes out flat for the early kickoff, the Irish should, again, roll Navy. I personally don’t think they’ll come out flat for a game in an NFL stadium against a ranked opponent.
Playoff probabilities:
- Notre Dame: 82% with a win, 24% with a loss.
- Navy: 31% with a win, 7% with a loss.
Navy could still make the playoff in the event where they lose. When Boise State also loses, that 7% number climbs to 9%. But if Navy shocks us and beats Notre Dame, they’ll have more going for them than a win over Notre Dame. They’ll be a team good enough to beat Notre Dame, and that might make them the legitimate AAC favorite. As for Notre Dame, in that scenario? Unlike NIU, Navy will at least probably continue to be ranked as the year goes along. It’s not impossible for 10–2 Notre Dame to make the playoff.
Penn State at Wisconsin
We’ve got a test at Camp Randall.
After two underwhelming wins, a blowout loss to Alabama featuring Tyler Van Dyke’s blown out knee, and a thumping in the second half at USC, Wisconsin has pulled it together. The Badgers have crushed Purdue, Rutgers, and Northwestern, and while that list is Purdue, Rutgers, and Northwestern, crushing any collection of teams with that degree of consistency is hard. Movelor, FPI, and SP+ are all in agreement: Wisconsin is one of the 25 best teams in the country.
For Penn State, then, this is largely an opportunity. The Nittany Lions aren’t being taken seriously yet as a national title contender, and that’s fair. They haven’t played like one so far, and they earned their perennial bridesmaid reputation over the Big Ten East era. A win on Saturday wouldn’t change any of this. A big win might. If Penn State can blow out Wisconsin, that Ohio State game next weekend will take on new life. We won’t be wondering if Penn State can make the playoff. We’ll be wondering if Penn State could be a serious threat to win it all.
There’s little doubting of Penn State’s defense, and that’s scary stuff for Wisconsin. The Badgers have gotten more big plays out of Braedyn Locke than people expected, but again: Purdue, Rutgers, and Northwestern. Wisconsin’s best hope is that this becomes a very Penn State vs. Wisconsin kind of game, something decided in the teens while its own good defense makes us use the word “setback” when discussing Drew Allar. It’s pretty simple for Luke Fickell: Force some turnovers and make some stops, and you’ll probably win. Let Tyler Warren do what he did against USC, and you are in deep, deep trouble.
Penn State’s at enough risk of losing this game that the downside is real. Part of that, though, comes from the reality where a loss to Wisconsin would confirm Penn State probably isn’t among the ten best teams in the country. The loss itself would hurt, but a large share of the pain would come from what it would say about Penn State’s chances of winning all their post-Ohio State games.
In total, then, we have three Penn State possibilities: A big win might get them into the national championship discussion. A narrow win will keep them on the playoff track. A loss will make things very dicey, and will probably lead to a situation where they’re a big home underdog next week against the Buckeyes.
Playoff probabilities:
- Penn State: 70% with a win, 23% with a loss.
- Wisconsin: 2% with a win, 0.03% with a loss.
Washington at Indiana
College Gameday! We’ve arrived at it at last.
Washington has played one other game which kicked off at 9:00 AM Seattle Time, and it ended with the Iowa Hawkeyes scoring 40 points on these poor Pacific souls. I bring that up because it’s easy to say, “This is the week we learn something about Indiana,” and I don’t think that’s true. We’ll learn something about Indiana, but we aren’t really going to know who Indiana is until they get to Columbus, unless they lose one of these games before then.
Similarly, I’m not particularly worried about the Indiana offense without Kurtis Rourke. He’s been great, and Washington’s defense is on the good side of things, but I’m excited to see Tayven Jackson free from Walt Bell’s offense on a late-stage Tom Allen team. I understand the concern for the Hoosiers—the Huskies should be a capable team, and Rourke was a security blanket because you could count on him to make solid decisions and throw the ball accurately—but there are worlds where this works out really well for IU. Rourke was not this quarterback at Ohio, even in his really good year in 2022. Let’s see what Tino Sunseri’s done with Jackson.
For Washington…man. This is a pride game. You joined the Big Ten, you got punked by Washington State before you’d even played a conference game, and while your win over Michigan was a “top-ten” upset, you lost to Rutgers and just allowed the Iowa Hawkeyes to score 40 points. The last time Iowa scored 40 against a Big Ten team came more than three years ago, and a lot of that was Taulia Tagovailoa throwing five picks.
Washington isn’t better than Indiana. Even Movelor, very slow to react to the Hoosiers, hardly has the Huskies ahead in power rating, and Movelor has Washington an underdog in Bloomington. I’m unsure how good Washington’s pass defense is—they haven’t exactly faced air raid teams in their Big Ten schedule so far—and I’m unsure if Washington can overpower Indiana up front the way I’d imagine Ohio State will in a few weeks. For Washington, though, the message needs to be that these players are bigger, stronger, and faster than Indiana’s, and that they’re playing the Indiana Hoosiers with a backup quarterback. Then, Jedd Fisch needs to remember that Grady Gross is not Adam Vinatieri in his prime.
Playoff probabilities:
- Indiana: 35% with a win, 3% with a loss.
- Washington: 0%.
I do think Movelor’s low on Indiana, but it should find the ballpark this week, win or lose. These probabilities, then, should be fairly accurate. Indiana probably won’t finish the season with anything like a ranked win.
SMU at Duke
From Indiana to Duke. It’s like the fates wanted to remind us college basketball’s coming soon.
(Just kidding. Indiana’s probably in for another bad basketball year. Thankfully, the program should get a new coach come March or April.)
Entering the season, SMU’s name was thrown around a good amount as an ACC sleeper. Of course, this negated their sleeper status, but the theory generally went that if Clemson stunk and Florida State underwhelmed, the ACC could fall into SMU’s hands, much as it could fall to Miami or Louisville or NC State. We weren’t calling SMU a contender, and we don’t have a great word for a team who can win a conference by default.
More than halfway through the season, SMU’s a dark horse in the ACC race, and not because of anything Clemson’s doing wrong. In fact, both Clemson and Miami have outperformed their preseason expectations, so while Florida State and NC State have been atrocious, SMU isn’t in this position because of someone else’s impotence. SMU is playing good football. And what makes this even more surprising is that three games into the season, after SMU stunk it up against Nevada and lost at home to BYU, we wrote SMU off. Since then, they’ve blown out TCU and FSU, beaten Louisville on the road, and obliterated fellow ACC debutant Stanford in Palo Alto. Now, they get Duke in Durham, trying to remain favored in every remaining ACC regular season game.
Duke, meanwhile, isn’t nothing. It hasn’t always been pretty in Manny Diaz’s return to head coaching, but the Blue Devils are 6–1, and their defense—true to Diaz form—is worth worrying about. Only Texas has allowed fewer yards per pass attempt this year than Duke. This could be a problem for SMU, who does run the football a lot but isn’t especially efficient on the ground.
Rhett Lashlee seems to have things running smoothly in University Park, which was a concern about SMU coming into the year. We knew SMU had the talent to compete in this conference, but early signs pointed to struggles to get that talent productive and aligned. Quarterback Kevin Jennings torched Louisville on the ground, and that’s probably the top factor Diaz wants to keep in check. The argument in SMU’s favor is that they’re good, they’re versatile, and Duke’s offense doesn’t do much. The argument in Duke’s favor is that this is a home game and Diaz knows how to coach a defense.
The consequences? With a reasonably high chance both Miami and Clemson finish ACC play 8–0, and with a loss already to SMU’s name, SMU’s going to be in a world of hurt if they go down again. It’s their first ACC season, so expectations weren’t originally this high, but they’ve earned themselves a lot of hope. For Duke, there isn’t as much at stake, but they could eventually reach 10–2 if they win this week, and I’d imagine this athletic department wouldn’t mind playing spoiler against the new kid on the ACC block.
Playoff probabilities:
- SMU: 57% with a win, 13% with a loss.
- Duke: 4% with a win, 0% with a loss.
The Games With Playoff Impact
BYU at UCF
Kansas at Kansas State
In the Big 12, BYU’s getting its own big test, flying all the way to Orlando to try to remain unbeaten. Iowa State’s been keeping pace, and while BYU has the head-to-head advantage over Kansas State, that doesn’t take K-State off the Cougars’ heels. Iowa State made life hell for Jacurri Brown when he threw the football, but Iowa State’s got a better defense than BYU, and UCF’s rushing attack was devastating in Ames, with both Brown and running back RJ Harvey breaking off monster runs. I wouldn’t make too much of the “backup quarterback” tag placed on Brown. This offense is still the best UCF is capable of.
Is that enough to upset BYU? Yes. In fact, some wouldn’t even call it an upset. Betting markets currently have UCF favored in this game, and while Movelor and SP+ disagree, the point is that it’s close. BYU has plenty left to prove, and for as fun as last week’s win over Oklahoma State became, it wasn’t a particularly strong BYU performance.
K-State, meanwhile, has to deal with a pesky Kansas team who both has and hasn’t fallen apart. Kansas is 2–5, but four of their losses came by fewer than seven points, Jalon Daniels is always dangerous, and while systems differ, FPI has the Jayhawks all the way up at 35th. Kansas State knows all of this and won’t take KU lightly in this rivalry game, but it’s not a layup for the Wildcats, who cannot afford to lose to their archrival in a season where that archrival’s probably going to miss a bowl.
Playoff probabilities:
- BYU: 74% with a win, 28% with a loss.
- Kansas State: 64% with a win, 16% with a loss, 66% with a win and a BYU loss.
K-State wanting BYU to lose is new, but the Wildcats need to make the Big 12 Championship somehow.
Florida State at Miami
This should be straightforward? We would think? But boy, even after all the losses, Florida State remains scary.
Cam Ward Heisman watch is in full effect.
Playoff probabilities:
- Miami: 85% with a win, 32% with a loss.
Nebraska at Ohio State
Illinois at Oregon
Two take–care–of–business games in the Big Ten, though both Nebraska and Illinois probably don’t see them that way. Big opportunities for both underdogs, of course, and we’ll obviously take them seriously if they impress. (This especially goes for Illinois, who’d become a playoff contender with an upset win.) The basic story on both teams is that it’s been a good year, but it’s only progress. There’s a long way to go.
Playoff probabilities:
- Ohio State: 96% with a win, 61% with a loss.
- Oregon: 94% with a win, 58% with a loss.
- Illinois: 33% with a win, 0.6% with a loss.
- Nebraska: 0%.
I was curious about Nebraska, who’d be 6–2, but that is a clean 0.00%. No rounding needed. Our model evidently doesn’t think you can lose by 49 to Indiana and make the College Football Playoff. Call it old-fashioned, I guess.
Oklahoma at Mississippi
Missouri at Alabama
Texas at Vanderbilt
There’s plenty happening in the SEC, as is often the case. Oklahoma is out as far as the playoff is concerned, so no need to check the numbers on them, but they’re trying to do something more important than making one individual playoff, which is to right the ship. Vanderbilt only makes the playoff in one of our 10,000 latest simulations, winning the SEC and getting the 4-seed, and in that simulation, yes, they do beat Texas. Mostly, though, this is about Mississippi trying to make a statement and get some attention back, Alabama looking to avoid disaster, Missouri trying to cause disaster for Alabama despite likely playing without Brady Cook, and Texas trying to take their lingering Georgia frustrations out on Vanderbilt while quieting any quarterback controversy.
Playoff probabilities:
- Texas: 93% with a win, 51% with a loss.
- Alabama: 50% with a win, 8% with a loss.
- Mississippi: 28% with a win, 0% with a loss.
- Mizzou: 21% with a win, 0% with a loss.
The Interesting Games
Syracuse at Pitt
Man, this is a fun week. Tonight, undefeated Pitt hosts Philly Kyle and the one-loss Syracuse Orange. I don’t think anybody harbors serious playoff hopes for Syracuse, but it’s theoretically possible, and Pitt’s getting to the point where if they win this, they’re in the mix. On top of all of that, it’s a little bit of an Old Big East matchup, with Pitt joining that league in 1982 after its founding in 1979.
Playoff probabilities:
- Pitt: 10% with a win, 0.6% with a loss.
- Syracuse: 2% with a win, 0% with a loss.
Rutgers at USC
The playoff dream in Los Angeles is all the way dead, but hosting Rutgers on a short week is not exactly the place you want to be if you’re Lincoln Riley trying to pull this season back together. As we said above, it’s helpful to remember that expectations weren’t particularly high for USC this year. They probably aren’t getting enough credit for the LSU win. But losing to Maryland on top of the Minnesota loss is just disastrous. Lose this one, and the Trojans will be likelier than not to miss a bowl.
Cincinnati at Colorado
Travis Hunter’s in a hard spot because he only gets one chance in his life to win the Heisman and his only path to the Heisman involves playing an outrageous number of snaps, something which could put his NFL career in jeopardy. Meanwhile, Colorado’s holding onto a shred of playoff hope. We’ve got them 5% likely with a win in this one.
Michigan State at Michigan
Getting back to backs and walls, what happens if Michigan State upsets Michigan? Is Sherrone Moore on the hot seat? I know the NCAA investigations are looming, but it’s so unlikely the NCAA actually manages to enact any meaningful punishment that as Moore continues to bumble around this quarterback situation, I’d personally encourage rashness. If he’s not the guy, he’s not the guy. We wrote more about that whole mess yesterday.
Tulane at North Texas
With Liberty’s loss, Tulane already picked up a little playoff probability this week. This road trip’s a big test to see if they can keep it. If Navy loses to Notre Dame, it won’t be a conference loss, but Tulane still plays Navy head-to-head, so making the AAC Championship is fully in Tulane’s hands. (Unlike Clemson, Miami, and SMU in the ACC, who could all finish the season 8–0 in conference play.)
What else is in Tulane’s hands? Not everything. They need Boise State to lose, preferably to UNLV because that’s Boise State’s toughest remaining game. They’d probably like either Boise State or UNLV to lose again, then, especially as Tulane’s own Oklahoma loss looks worse and worse. But given the losses were to Oklahoma and Kansas State, Tulane is not out of this, which brings it back to the part that is in the Green Wave’s control: If Tulane plays its best football these last six games, Tulane will not only get to 11–2, but will pick up convincing wins over Navy, Memphis, and Army along the way. What does “best football” entail this weekend? Giving a 5–2 respectable North Texas a what-for in Denton.
Tulane gets to a 13% playoff probability with a win, and if they lose, they’re still at 1%, even with a best possible record of 10–3. Army’s got a great résumé already, and Tulane will most likely get the chance to beat them.
(Movelor) Top 25 FCS Games
South Dakota at South Dakota State
In the FCS, there might not be much hope for South Dakota, which is funny to say because Movelor rates South Dakota the FCS’s fourth-best team.
I will say: There’s enough uncertainty here about both programs that it wouldn’t be entirely shocking if South Dakota pulled off the upset. SP+ actually thinks South Dakota’s the better team here, but SP+ is a bit of a black box, and that’s especially true when it comes to how it treats levels lower than the FBS, where I’m not sure there’s as much statistical detail available.
Movelor’s a lot simpler than SP+, and it’s aggressive in how it handles the top tier of the FCS, willing to do things like call the Jackrabbits a 16-point favorite in this game. Movelor was also built to handle FCS games with just as much accuracy as FBS ones, and we see a lot of blowouts between MVFC powers.
Anyway, SDSU’s coming off the loss to NDSU, and South Dakota’s trying to ascend to a new territory. The last time the Coyotes finished ahead of the Jacks in the conference standings was back in 2000 in the Division II North Central Conference. The pair hasn’t been in the same league in each of those years, and USD did tie SDSU in the MVFC table as recently as 2021. But this is a big-time big brother/little brother matchup within the state of South Dakota.
Western Carolina at Mercer
Moving to a different South, WCU’s the last unbeaten team in SoCon play, while Mercer was the conference favorite until Samford came out of nowhere and put up 55 on them last weekend. Adding intrigue, Western Carolina has a bad nonconference loss to Campbell, who’s 2–5 overall and languishing at the bottom of the CAA. I add that because WCU’s very much on the playoff bubble.
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That’s that for upcoming games. Among those that have already happened this week, a quick nod to Kennesaw State, who got their first FBS win in attention-grabbing fashion, toppling Liberty on Wednesday Night Conference USA Football Live on CBS Sports Network™.
Liberty had already fallen off enough that we suspected a loss was coming, but this does simplify that corner of the Group of Five playoff world. They’d been tracking around 10% or 15% playoff-likely, and now they’re down to 0.2% in our model’s latest simulations, or 1-in-500. Kennesaw State, meanwhile, can breathe a sigh of relief. They won’t go winless, and there’s finally some progress to point towards after their decision to move to the FBS was met with a sudden downturn in on-field performance. This team was not this bad a few years ago.
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Resources for the week ahead:
- Our College Football Playoff Bracketology
- Movelor’s Week 9 spreads
- Our model’s playoff probabilities
For the betting-inclined, we’ll be publishing our futures picks for this week over at the site later today. Plenty more content on the way between now and Saturday morning, universe-permitting.
Bark.
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