College Football Morning: An ACC Upheaval – Where Week 1 Took College Football

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This doesn’t have to be bad for the ACC. There are half a dozen ways it could be a good thing. But after a weekend we thought would be highlighted by the SEC, Big Ten, and Notre Dame, our eyes turn instead to a tumultuous Atlantic Coast.

Clemson vs. Miami vs. Louisville vs. Georgia Tech vs. NC State vs….

To briefly recap the last twelve months at Florida State University:

• The Seminoles, preseason co-favorites alongside Clemson, went 13–0 against a schedule which featured two teams ranked in the decisive College Football Playoff rankings. The higher-ranked of those two teams—LSU—was a non-conference opponent, not one supplied by FSU’s ACC schedule. The ACC gave FSU one ranked opponent. That was all the ACC could muster.
• The Seminoles, an undefeated power conference champion, were left out of the College Football Playoff in a shocking historic move. Most of this was likely due to FSU losing star quarterback Jordan Travis late in the season. Some was probably thanks to those two ranked victories. Alabama had four.
• The Seminoles, angered by this absence, correctly attributed it at least in part to the weakness of their Atlantic Coast Conference. They neglected to acknowledge the likely reality that in a more powerful Power Five league, they would not have gone 13–0.
• The Seminoles, reportedly lacking interest from the Big Ten and SEC, set about trying to leave the ACC through legal maneuvers. Their desired destinations? The Big Ten or the SEC. Clemson, who also reportedly lacks interest from the Big Ten and SEC, embarked on a parallel mission.
• The Seminoles, preseason ACC favorites and thereby a strong contender for a 2-seed or 3-seed in the College Football Playoff (positions not attainable to a team like them if they played in the Big Ten or SEC), opened the season against Georgia Tech, the ACC’s fifth-best team according to our model’s estimates. Georgia Tech would, for those wondering, be the eighth-best team in the Big Ten and the twelfth-best team in the SEC, again per our model’s estimates. The Seminoles lost to Georgia Tech.
• The Seminoles, 0–1 but still an ACC title hopeful, returned to Doak Campbell Stadium in hot, muggy Tallahassee to face Boston College, a program whose outlook is so bleak that yesterday at least one humble blogger compared the Eagles to Washington State, a program recently evicted from power conference status. Per our model’s estimates, Boston College is the 15th-best team in the 17-team ACC, even after beating Florida State by multiple touchdowns on the road, which they did. Our model estimates Boston College is one tenth of a point better than the Big Ten’s worst team and 4.5 points better than the worst the SEC has to offer.

We can talk about how good and bad this is for the ACC, but getting into that too quickly steals attention from this saga’s greatest attribute: Its humor. Florida State, granted prominence thanks to ACC weakness, blamed ACC weakness for their national lack of respect. Then, they laid down on the 419 Tifway Bermuda Grass of their own home stadium and let Boston College drive over their face as though Boston College was a monster truck. This, after being physically outmatched by Georgia Tech. As plenty of others have pointed out, Florida State managed to get its pants pulled down twice in what was technically the season’s opening week, and in both cases they did it in standalone TV windows, nationally broadcast moments in which every college football fan in the world had one viewing option: Watching Florida State lose. Two FBS programs are currently 0–2. Of the two, Florida State has played the weaker schedule. (The other is New Mexico, whose vanquishers—Arizona and Montana State—we’d currently have favored over Georgia Tech and Boston College respectively on neutral fields.)

This is very funny. This is very, very funny. I think even Florida State’s truest believers recognize somewhere deep down that this is very, very, very funny. Florida State sued for liberty from mediocrity and then lost to that very mediocrity, once on its home field. Florida State has a beautiful campus and is an integral piece of college football lore. Bobby Bowden is a legend. So is Jameis Winston. We are all still laughing very hard at FSU.

Usually for the ACC, Big 12, formerly the Pac-12, and occasionally the Big Ten (there was a time!), it’s a bad thing when the preseason favorite loses. Usually for the non-SEC leagues, the best thing for the conference is the favorite finishing 13–0, earning a playoff bid and saving the league from disrespect. The practice of measuring conference strength by the playoff status of the league’s best team is terribly stupid. But, it’s widespread. In peacetime, the ACC would be best served by Florida State or Clemson going 13–0.

This isn’t peacetime.

There’s a civil war going on in courtrooms in the Southeast. Florida State and Clemson succeeding in the ACC is actively bad for the long-term future of the conference. The best thing that can happen to the ACC is for 15 teams to get better at football and two teams—FSU and Clemson—to get worse. With a few exceptions (Virginia Tech, have you considered unplugging your football program and rebooting?), early indications point towards that happening. It might not be enough—Clemson is still the conference favorite, at least in our eyes—but it’s a start. Of course, if Miami wins the ACC this year with a Heisman-winning quarterback, it might sue the ACC this offseason in the hopes of joining the Big Ten (which would probably want it), but that’s a problem for this offseason. For now, the ACC just wants its dissidents to lose. So far, they’re 0–3.

Other ACC thoughts and observations:

• We said last week that DJ Uiagalelei was a problem but not the problem against Georgia Tech. That’s probably true of last night as well, but we may have underestimated the size of problem he constitutes. Florida State, who played against DJ Uiagalelei for a few years, had a lot of quarterback options in the transfer portal. Florida State chose DJ Uiagalelei.
• We have to mention Mike Norvell, who was in trouble after 2021 and on the rise early last year. At this moment, he’s a punchline. I think he’ll be allowed at least one really bad season. Even if the program’s culture issues multiply and FSU misses a bowl, I have a hard time imagining the athletic department would cut bait so early after a 13–1 campaign.
• Good for Boston College. Great for Boston College! Good for those young men. Our model might be low on them, but our model can be a little slow to adjust to Week 1 results. Even it has them likelier than not to make a bowl now.
• Clemson also lost this weekend, to which we all mostly said, “Yes, they played Georgia, that is what happens when everyone but Alabama and Joe Burrow’s LSU Tigers plays Georgia.” It’s not all that concerning for Clemson to have lost by 31 points and failed to score a touchdown, but…it’s concerning that that’s not concerning? They lost by 31 points and failed to score a touchdown. Clemson put together one of the best teams in history just six years ago. They still have the same head coach!
• I’m not sure Dabo Swinney’s refusal to use the transfer portal is the biggest problem. The program has plenty of talent, and while the portal could be used to plug vulnerable holes, the significance of those holes is overrated in the zeitgeist right now relative to the overall weakness of the team. The program’s biggest problem is that it keeps taking great recruits and turning them into college football players who are just okay, or in some cases are perplexingly actively bad, like Clemson-developed DJ Uiagalelei. It’s not Clemson’s fault FSU signed Uiagalelei, but it’s partly Clemson’s fault that Uiagalelei isn’t in the NFL. Staff turned over and this program stopped effectively developing its talent. The fact Swinney won’t adjust is a problem, but his portal absolutism is only part of that.
• How about Cam Ward? It would be hard for Ward to live up to all that hype he was receiving preseason, and Florida did look quite bad, but Ward is legitimately in the Heisman race and his team is legitimately in the playoff race. It’s too early to say Miami’s a great team, or even necessarily a good one. But they can be, and it’s fair to dream on that potential.
• Virginia Tech had an awful, awful time in Nashville. Kyron Drones was disappointing and then got hurt. The Hokies as a whole were outplayed by the team who’s probably still the worst in the SEC. Virginia Tech was hoping to turn a corner this year. I’m afraid they might have turned the wrong one. A great day for Vanderbilt, of course. Good for those young men.

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Before we go around the rest of this great nation of Division I football, a quick note on our model’s College Football Playoff bracketology: You can find it here. Kansas State moves up to the 3-seed, Mississippi moves in at Mizzou’s expense, and James Madison slides back into the 12-seed spot. Plenty more in that post.

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An Irish Hello

To ease us out of the ACC and into the SEC, what better topic than partial ACC member Notre Dame beating full SEC member Texas A&M in College Station?

Notre Dame should not feel like a title contender based on that performance alone. For one thing, it was their hosts’ first game under a new head coach. More than that, though, it seemed Notre Dame won the game mostly by managing the situation adeptly.

The Irish respected the crowd noise, accounted for it, and executed their plan to combat it. The Irish respected the pass rush, accounted for it, and executed their plan to combat it. The Irish respected their own vulnerabilities, accounted for them, and executed their plan to work around them. Riley Leonard did need to make two big throws late in the game, and he made them, but I don’t think anyone walked away from that game thinking “Riley Leonard is Patrick Mahomes now” or “That offensive line is nasty.”

What Notre Dame did on Saturday was earn themselves some breathing room with which to work on those vulnerabilities. They’re the second-likeliest team in the country to make the College Football Playoff, trailing only Georgia. They’re the likeliest team in the country to enter the postseason unbeaten. They did a lot to earn that, but they have to prove much more if they want this year’s team to earn mention alongside the Dawgs.

Walking out of the game, a Texas A&M senior stuck beside me at a crosswalk bemoaned the season as lost. I don’t think it is. If it was, though, it was lost a long time ago, back when Jimbo Fisher still wore maroon and white. This is Mike Elko’s first year. A&M fans seemed unwilling to treat it as such. This team may have received some unfair expectations thanks to analysts’ doubts about Notre Dame.

The SEC’s 13^th-Best Team

A popular line from the Florida State crew entering last night was that the SEC had gone 1–3 in Week 1’s most prominent nonconference games. Technically true, but a goofy way to cover for Virginia Tech. Also…

Come on, guys.

The Big Ten’s sixth-best team beat the SEC’s seventh.

The nation’s eighth-best team beat the SEC’s ninth.

The ACC’s third-best team beat the SEC’s thirteenth.

The SEC’s best team beat the ACC’s best. They won by 31 points and didn’t allow a touchdown.

ESPN does demonstrate some pro-SEC bias, just as it demonstrates some pro-ACC and pro-Big 12 bias from time to time. ACC conspiracy theorists aren’t wrong about that first part, even if they ignore the second (why would ESPN not want to promote a media property it owns on a steal of a contract). Using these small-sample non-conference records while ignoring the relative standings of the teams involved is a giveaway. A lot of what’s said is tongue-in-cheek.

Let’s talk about that 13th team in the SEC, though. Is Florida going to fire Billy Napier?

I, for one, really liked the Napier hire when it happened. He and his staff had turned Louisiana into a Sun Belt power. I thought he’d earned credibility and should be expected to succeed armed with Florida’s stupendous resources. One of college football’s two best coaches over the last twenty years was hired by Florida based on mid-major success. In hindsight, “What worked at ULL should work in Gainesville” was flawed logic on my part. Things are not working in Gainesville.

Florida is young. They are definitely young at a lot of positions. But this is Napier’s third season, and the Gators aren’t getting better. They have time to get better now. They have an opportunity ahead to improve. But if they don’t, it’ll be hard to criticize UF for pulling the plug.

Other SEC thoughts and observations:

• This conference currently has eight of the top thirteen teams in Movelor, our model’s rating system. Maybe Movelor’s being slow to react to LSU, but it’s not far from the norm on any of Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Mississippi, Tennessee, Missouri, or Oklahoma. So far, everyone respects those guys.
• Mississippi pounded Furman, and while there might have been some Paladin cruelty involved, it does take a better performance to win 76–0 than 56–20. It was 73–0 after three quarters. A bad weekend for the Clemson–Furman corner of the world.
• One quieter result that might be worth tracking: South Carolina only narrowly escaped Old Dominion, the ninth-best team in the Sun Belt by our estimate. (SP+ has the Monarchs slightly worse, so this isn’t one where we’re an outlier.)

Should Oregon or Michigan Be More Concerned?

Oregon allowed three sacks against Idaho. Michigan went three-and-out multiple times and found itself occasionally stuffed by Fresno State’s front seven.

Michigan still has its defense going for it. It’s possible that unit will be the best in the country. But the offensive problems are likely real, which puts a ton of pressure on the defense to play perfectly. Michigan was so good by the end of last season that our model still likes the Wolverines a lot—one 20-point victory does little to change that—but that’s a weakness of our model. These guys have a lot of work to do on the offensive side of the ball. If Davis Warren plays the same way against Texas he played against Fresno State, the Wolverines are going to be shuffling Alex Orji in a whole lot more. There are reasons Warren won the job over Orji in the first place.

Sherrone Moore and his staff can probably develop new powerhouse offensive linemen, even without the extra year of eligibility which enabled their national title. That’s something that takes years, though. Michigan isn’t there right now. Moore needs to get creative. He might be able to do that, but that’s a skill of his that hasn’t been tested before. Creativity isn’t what got him to this position.

As for the Ducks? Saturday was a bigger red flag. Our model may have been high on Michigan, but the broader college football world was not. Michigan playing like they did isn’t a huge departure from expectations. Oregon, meanwhile, wants to win the Big Ten this season and challenge for a national championship. Oregon wants Dillon Gabriel to win the Heisman. They can and he can, but that was a highly concerning start. Idaho, for those asking the right questions, is probably roughly two points better than Furman. It takes a better performance to win 76–0 than to win 24–14, and we aren’t even comparing Oregon to Georgia here. We’re comparing Oregon to Mississippi.

Other Big Ten thoughts and observations:

• Drew Allar and Miller Moss made one humble blogger feel very good about labeling them as Heisman sleepers last Thursday. Unfortunately for Moss, he doesn’t enjoy Allar’s playoff path. Aside from Notre Dame, I’m not sure any team in the country has a better route to a national championship than Penn State. Like Notre Dame, they’re on the fringe of national contention, not established as good enough to seriously discuss the possibility yet, but as with Notre Dame, the path to at least appearing in the national championship could be very straightforward should the Nittany Lions take care of business and catch one or two good breaks. In Penn State’s case, you could say this is karma for the entire history of the Big Ten East.
• Nebraska fans are hootin’ and hollerin’ over Dylan Raiola, and they might turn out to be right. Generally, five-star prospects become better players than the rest. There’s predictive power to recruiting rankings. What really matters for Nebraska is putting Raiola in positions to succeed. They have a little time. He’s only a freshman. But you could do worse than supporting your freshman quarterback with what Bill Connelly rates a top-ten defense, and the Huskers don’t play a top-40 team until they meet Ohio State on the final Saturday of October. I’m not saying they’ll get there undefeated, and the worst thing Nebraska can do is set expectations too high for Raiola. But if you’re the type who likes to guess at where College Gameday might end up, don’t sleep on Columbus for Week 9, even against a heck of a slate elsewhere.
• Nobody’s talking about Maryland, so we’ll keep talking about Maryland. Fringe top-25 team. Plenty of reasons to believe in the Terps.
• Northwestern has somehow become an exceedingly fun team, which is very funny to say after a 13–6 victory over the Ohioan Miami. The Wildcats are tough defensively. The Wildcats play hard. The Wildcats play in a pretty cool temporary stadium on the shore of Lake Michigan. David Braun was a brilliant accidental hire in Evanston.

An Oklahoma State-ment

It’s possible that South Dakota State is no longer that good, and that I am simply wrong about that. But Oklahoma State thrashed the Jackrabbits, and the likeliest explanation points to that meaning something. A lot of OK State’s season happens in September, so we should have more answers soon, but for the time being, we’d consider them a player in the Big 12 title race, probably still behind K-State and Utah but ahead of teams like Arizona and Kansas.

Other Big 12 thoughts and observations:

• Kansas State had a fine opener. Utah’s was dominant, and even against the ASUN/WAC’s third-best team (long story; that’s one league), the dominance was significant enough to note. Elsewhere, Arizona’s defense looked like a problem. A problem for Arizona. A big problem for Arizona.
• Arizona State turned in an great game against Wyoming, and while Wyoming’s just changed coaches and is, as much as we love ‘em, Wyoming, that’s still big for ASU, whom we’re no longer so sure is headed for the Big 12 basement.
• Similarly, Baylor stomping Tarleton was quiet but telling. The Bears took care of business. They’re a long way from what they so recently were, but that win was a step in the right direction.

The Mountains vs. the Sun vs. America

Here are the average Movelor ratings by conference for the Group of Five. This is measuring how far they are from the average FBS/FCS program in terms of point spread on a neutral field.

• Sun Belt: +7.3
• Mountain West: +6.9
• American: +6.2
• MAC: +3.1
• Conference USA: –3.8

For added fun, the ACC is at +18.0, the Big 12 is at +19.4, and the MVFC—the best conference in the FCS—is at +1.1, meaning yes, Conference USA is worse than the best FCS league. It’s also worse than the second-best FCS league, the Big Sky, but that’s closer (–3.4).

The point we’re trying to make here is that the race to be the best Group of Five conference is tight. The Sun Belt, Mountain West, and AAC are all close to one another in quality. Will the committee view it that way? We’re not sure. There’s been evidence in the past that they understand Conference USA is a step below the others, but we wouldn’t count on their Group of Five evaluations to be precise. Our view is that the committee has been slow to react to the Sun Belt’s improvement in recent years.

Also tight is the race to be the best Group of Five conference champion, a title which will earn its possessor a College Football Playoff berth. The Group of Five can put more than one team in the playoff. It cannot put zero in. The three best Group of Five teams, per Movelor? James Madison (20.0), Memphis (18.9), and Boise State (17.8). The three with the best playoff probabilities? James Madison (20.0%), Liberty (13.4%), and Memphis (11.7%). That’s with no CUSA-specific discount applied to Liberty’s résumé.

So far, the Mountain West has grabbed the mid-major headlines. Ashton Jeanty’s name is being said a lot between his six rushing touchdowns for Boise State against Georgia Southern and whatever he does this weekend against Oregon. Holy Cross transfer Matthew Sluka and UNLV rolled past Houston in a game where the Runnin’ Rebels nearly shut out the Coogs. The three MWC teams who played Week Zero—Nevada, New Mexico, and Hawaii—all looked strong in Week 1. Nevada upset Troy on the road. New Mexico gave Arizona’s defense hell. Hawaii led UCLA entering the fourth quarter, ultimately losing on a last-minute field goal.

Still, no Mountain West teams are among those three playoff-likeliest mid-majors listed above. Is the league eating itself alive?

Kind of.

If we were to expand the list of the best Group of Five teams to include two semi-independents, Oregon State and Washington State would top the list. Boise State has to play both of them. UNLV has to play Oregon State. Fresno State has to play Washington State. The Cougs and Beavers pop up on a lot of Mountain West schedules. That’s how that scheduling agreement works.

The Mountain West did have the foresight to make sure both OSU and WSU have to visit Boise, rather than sending their best playoff hope on the road. But these intermediate games against teams likely to be among the best unranked squads in the country are not helping the MWC’s playoff push. That’s probably why the Mountain West decided not to renew the scheduling agreement for next year.

When the agreement was made, it appeared a step towards a full merger between the parties. Now, that doesn’t seem so likely. Existing Mountain West schools don’t reportedly think Washington State or Oregon State would help them too much.

Is that true? Kind of. If Washington State and Oregon State were Mountain West members, the Mountain West would collectively have a much better playoff shot and a good chance to eclipse the Sun Belt as the best Group of Five league. How much that’s worth to a school like San Jose State, though, is unclear. San Jose State wouldn’t improve its playoff shot. Its conference would.

There’s also the question of whether existing MWC schools might be interested in trimming some of the fat. Theoretically, six or eight of those guys could wave goodbye and go join WSU and OSU in the vacant hermit crab shell that is now the Pac-12. This is very much a personal theory, not something that’s been reported, but I’m curious if some of the bigger Mountain West brands—San Diego State, Boise State, and Colorado State, perhaps—might be interested in breaking six teams away when the next legal opportunity comes. Those five schools plus San Jose State, UNLV, and Fresno State would have an average Movelor rating right now of +13.7, closer to the ACC than the current MWC is to the MAC.

Something to monitor.

Other Group of Five thoughts and observations:

• Texas State had a lot of preseason expectations in the Sun Belt. In their opener, they had a tough time. They did lead Lamar by three scores with five minutes remaining, but they also ended up needing to stop an attempted Lamar scoring drive that sought to tie it as time expired. Lamar recovered an onside kick but couldn’t get past the 50. Lamar is a peripheral contender in the Southland, which is not among the FCS’s strongest conferences.
• Up next for Texas State is UTSA, who was a little disappointing against Kennesaw State. Josh McCown’s son Owen is quarterbacking for the Roadrunners.
• Memphis and Tulane both pitched shutouts against overmatched FCS teams. Still, they were shutouts.
• Every FBS vs. FBS game involving a MAC team would have featured a MAC loss were UMass already in the league. Instead, the MAC went 1–5 against FBS competition, with the lone win coming against UMass. To be fair, the losses all came to Big Ten and ACC teams.
• As we noted when it happened, Jacksonville State looked terrible, but then Liberty went and let Campbell hang around. It wasn’t a scary game for the Flames, and sometimes the difference between a 17-point and 37-point victory can be small. But after Jax State made Conference USA look like Liberty’s for the taking, Liberty made Conference USA still appear an open race.

South Dakota State Should Be Worried

The nice thing for South Dakota State is that they showed some good flashes and that the team who beat them is a Big 12 contender.

The bad thing for South Dakota State is that we only currently have them a 2.9-point favorite against North Dakota State this year. The game’s in Fargo in October. Lose that, and they definitely lose the national 1-seed, and probably lose the 2-seed as well. In the FCS, that means at least one road trip in December on the path to the national championship.

Six FCS teams are ranked in Movelor’s top 100: South Dakota State (29th), North Dakota State (60th), Montana (76th), Montana State (78th), Villanova (94th), and Idaho (99th). One week in, that’s our best guess at the lay of the land.

Montana State won at New Mexico in Week Zero, but no FCS teams beat FBS teams in Week 1. Central Arkansas would have but for an unfortunate missed call against Arkansas State.

One FCS team who was themselves upset in Week 1? St. Thomas. The D3 power-turned-Pioneer League contender fell by three touchdowns to Division II Sioux Falls. This might be the first time since announcing its Division I transition that the St. Thomas athletic department has not appeared to be moving forward. Maybe water finally found its level over there, or maybe Sioux Falls is on its way to D2 national contention.  

Model Stuff

Movelor’s biggest surprises in Week 1 came from Stephen F. Austin and Mississippi. We had the line on the Furman/Mississippi game at 30.5 points, and that was 45.5 points too generous to the Paladins. We had the line on North American vs. Stephen F. Austin at 26.8, but SFA won by 77. With the latter, Movelor does still treat all non-D1 teams the same. With the former, Mississippi just beat the crap out of Furman.

Movelor was within half a point on five of the Week 1 games, getting the margin and victor correct in Fordham/Bowling Green, UNC/Minnesota, Northern State/South Dakota, Mississippi Valley State/Tennessee State, and James Madison/Charlotte.

We’ll get Movelor’s overall Week Zero and Week 1 stats up tomorrow when we publish its Week 2 predictions. More from us tomorrow, as always, and throughout the week as we approach this weekend’s games.

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