After all of that, there is no more dispute: Texas has clinched a spot in the Big 12 Championship. Here’s where every conference stands through games of Friday, November 24th. Details and explanations are available below.
- ACC: Florida State will play Louisville in the ACC Championship.
- Big 12: Texas has clinched first place in the Big 12. Second place is coming down to Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. If Oklahoma State beats BYU, they’ll play Texas for the Big 12 title. If BYU beat Oklahoma State, Oklahoma will play Texas for the Big 12 title.
- Big Ten: The winner of Ohio State vs. Michigan will win the East. Iowa has clinched the West.
- Pac-12: Washington will play Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship.
- SEC: Georgia will play Alabama in the SEC Championship.
- American: Tulane has clinched a spot in the AAC Championship and has also clinched home-field advantage. SMU will secure the other spot with a win over Navy. With an SMU loss, selected computer rankings would decide between SMU and UTSA.
- Mountain West: If UNLV beats San Jose State, UNLV will host Boise State in the Mountain West Championship. If San Jose State beats UNLV, the top two of those three teams (as judged by selected computer rankings) will play one another.
- Sun Belt: Troy has clinched the West. Barring a surprising pivot by the conference re: JMU, the East is down to Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State, with Coastal controlling its fate. Troy can clinch home-field advantage with a win this week, again barring that surprise pivot. With a Troy loss, a win by Coastal or App State, and no pivot, computers would decide home-field advantage.
- MAC: Toledo will play Miami–Ohio in the MAC Championship.
- Conference USA: Barring a shocking pivot by the conference re: Jacksonville State, New Mexico State has clinched second place. Liberty will play New Mexico State in the Conference USA Championship. Liberty will host.
ACC Football Tiebreakers
No need for tiebreakers here. Florida State and Louisville have finished their ACC seasons at 8–0 and 7–1, respectively. No one else will finish better than 6–2.
Big 12 Football Tiebreakers
Link: Tiebreaker Policy
This got really ugly, with the Big 12 refusing to clarify its tiebreakers until after Texas and Oklahoma’s final regular season games. With those games complete, though, we’re assured that Texas will finish conference play 8–1, that Oklahoma will finish 7–2, and that nobody else will finish better than 7–2, with Oklahoma State and Kansas State the only teams remaining who could reach that mark.
The Big 12 has now made abundantly clear that if Oklahoma State wins today against BYU, finishing 7–2 themselves, they’ll take second place and face Texas for the Big 12 Championship, winning the tiebreaker over Oklahoma and the potential tiebreaker over Kansas State by head-to-head result. If Oklahoma State loses, Oklahoma takes it, even if Kansas State wins. The Big 12 doesn’t say how, exactly, but our understanding is that this is because while Oklahoma and Kansas State didn’t play head-to-head, Oklahoma beat Texas while Kansas State lost to Texas.
So:
- If Oklahoma State beats BYU, Oklahoma State plays Texas for the Big 12 Championship.
- If BYU beats Oklahoma State, Oklahoma plays Texas for the Big 12 Championship.
Big Ten Football Tiebreakers
There won’t be any need for tiebreakers here. Iowa has clinched the West outright, and the winner of Michigan/Ohio State will do the same with the East.
Pac-12 Football Tiebreakers
Link: Tiebreaker Policy
With Oregon’s victory over Oregon State, Washington and Oregon are assured of finishing as the top two teams in the conference standings, with no tiebreakers needed.
SEC Football Tiebreakers
Georgia and Alabama clinched their divisions last week. No tiebreakers needed.
American Athletic Conference Football Tiebreakers
Link: Tiebreaker Policy
Tulane has clinched home-field advantage in the American’s conference championship, winning a hypothetical tiebreaker over SMU (whom they didn’t play head-to-head) because they were ranked this week and SMU was not. The second spot is down to SMU and UTSA.
If SMU beats Navy, the situation is simple: SMU will finish 8–0 in league play while UTSA finished 7–1, so the spot will go to SMU. If SMU loses to Navy, both SMU and UTSA will be 7–1, and because they didn’t play each other, a composite of four computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley, Wolfe) will be used. Entering the week, SMU outranked UTSA heartily, but a loss to Navy would presumably have a big impact, so we don’t want to say they’ve clinched just yet.
Mountain West Conference Football Tiebreakers
Link: Tiebreaker Policy
Atop the conference, after Boise State beat Air Force:
- UNLV: 6–1
- Boise State: 6–2
- San Jose State: 5–2
San Jose State visits UNLV today, meaning we’ll either need no tiebreaker or a three-way tiebreaker between all three teams. Boise State didn’t play UNLV head-to-head, so computer rankings will decide the tie. We don’t know for sure, but we think the Mountain West uses the same computer rankings as the AAC. If that’s the case, those favored UNLV heavily over the other two to enter the week, but they only favored Boise State narrowly over SJSU, and SJSU’s road win over UNLV would likely be more impressive to the computers than Boise State’s home win over Air Force (who isn’t ranked as highly as UNLV by the system). Our guess, then, is that San Jose State is in with a win, that UNLV is in whether they win or lose, and that UNLV will host. We aren’t positive about that, though.
Sun Belt Conference Football Tiebreakers
Link: Tiebreaker Policy
We’re not convinced that any NCAA rule is making James Madison ineligible for the Sun Belt Championship. In college basketball, multiple leagues allow transitioning teams to play in their conference tournament even though they’re ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. The Sun Belt as a whole would be best-served if James Madison played in the conference championship. This is true whether the Dukes are bowl-eligible or not. The other options in the East aren’t going to reach a New Year’s Six bowl themselves or move the needle enough on Troy’s résumé to help the Trojans, but JMU might help. The Sun Belt might as well take a shot with JMU. At this point, though, it is very unlikely the Sun Belt will reverse course. The Sun Belt has chosen the thing that is turning out to be potentially better for two Sun Belt teams at the expense of the other twelve. It’s unclear if they know they are doing this.
Meanwhile…
Troy has clinched the West Division.
Atop the East:
- James Madison: 6–1
- Coastal Carolina: 5–2
- Appalachian State: 5–2
- Old Dominion: 4–3
Relevant games this week:
- James Madison @ Coastal Carolina
- Georgia Southern @ Appalachian State
- Georgia State @ Old Dominion
James Madison could clinch the division with a win, were the Sun Belt to let them play. With a loss, either Coastal Carolina would win a head-to-head tiebreaker or there’d be a three-way tie between JMU, Coastal, and App State. Coastal would also win this tiebreaker, though, because they also beat App State. Coastal *also* beat Old Dominion, so in the scenario in which JMU is not allowed to play in the Sun Belt Championship but JMU does beat Coastal, Old Dominion has no chance and App State can only make it with a win. Any tiebreaker in any scenario goes to Coastal Carolina. Old Dominion is eliminated.
For hosting:
Troy is 6–1 in Sun Belt play. They lost to James Madison but did not play Coastal or App State. If there’s a tie between Troy and Coastal or App State, home-field advantage will be decided by the same computer rankings the AAC uses. I’m not sure where those would land, given Troy would have to lose to a bad Southern Miss team for a tie to happen.
Summarized:
- 7–1 Troy vs. 7–1 JMU: JMU hosts.
- 7–1 JMU vs. 6–2 Troy: JMU hosts.
- 7–1 Troy vs. 6–2 or 5–3 CCU/App State: Troy hosts.
- 6–2 Troy vs. 6–2 CCU/App State: Computers decide.
MAC Football Tiebreakers
Toledo has clinched the MAC West outright. Miami–Ohio has clinched the East, holding the head-to-head advantage over Ohio, the only team who could tie them (nobody could pass them). Toledo will play Miami–Ohio for the MAC Championship.
Conference USA Football Tiebreakers
Conference USA is in the same situation as the Sun Belt in that its chance of sending a team to a New Year’s Six bowl would be maximized by allowing Jacksonville State to play in its conference championship game if qualified. Jacksonville State wouldn’t have a chance themselves, but Liberty does have a chance, and if Jacksonville State is the better possible opponent, that’s who Conference USA wants Liberty to play. We doubt they’ll do this, having already announced that New Mexico State will play at Liberty for the conference title, but this was a dumb move by Conference USA, unless there’s a big difference between the NCAA’s football rules and basketball rules on this front.
If Conference USA were to reverse course, the winner of Jacksonville State’s game at New Mexico State this week would determine second place in the conference. Each enters the weekend 6–1 in league play. Liberty has clinched home field advantage in either scenario, with head-to-head victories over both possible opponents.
