College Football Bracketology: Week 9, 2024

This bracketology is our college football model’s best current prediction of where the College Football Playoff field will ultimately land. It is not a reflection of where things currently stand. Here’s a link to an explanation of how it all works. Here’s another link to our model’s homepage, where you can access CFP probabilities, national championship probabilities, single-game spreads, and more.

Cotton Bowl Side

First Round: 9-seed Tennessee at 8-seed Notre Dame
First Round: 12-seed Boise State at 5-seed Ohio State

Rose Bowl: 1-seed Oregon vs. ND/Tenn winner
Fiesta Bowl: 4-seed Kansas State vs. OSU/Boise winner

Orange Bowl Side

First Round: 10-seed Penn State at 7-seed Miami (FL)
First Round: 11-seed BYU at 6-seed Georgia

Sugar Bowl: 2-seed Texas vs. Miami/PSU winner
Peach Bowl: 3-seed Clemson vs. UGA/BYU winner

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The movement this week:

• While Texas remains the SEC favorite (thanks to remaining regular season schedules), its average final CFP ranking is now poorer than Oregon’s. Oregon takes over the top seed.
• Kansas State is the Big 12 favorite again, with its blowout road win over West Virginia and Iowa State & BYU’s home struggles. This moves K-State back to the 4-seed. Iowa State is bumped out of the projected field.
• Georgia rises into the 6-seed with its win at Texas. Miami rises to the 7-seed with its win at Louisville. Notre Dame drops to the 8-seed.
• Tennessee moves into the field with its win over Alabama. Penn State drops to the 10-seed, and Alabama falls out.

More details:

• Alabama is our new first team out, followed by SMU, Iowa State, and LSU.
• Our model projects 8.8 of these 12 teams to make the eventual playoff, meaning we expect three of these twelve to drop out.
• The model projects 3.7 SEC teams, up from 3.5 last week. The model expected one of Georgia and Tennessee to win, but both winning increased the expected SEC presence. Our best guess is that four playoff teams come from the SEC.
• The Big Ten’s projected to contribute 2.7 playoff teams, down a little bit from 2.8 last week. No big developments there—just some SEC encroachment.
• The ACC and Big 12 are up to a combined projected 3.7 playoff teams after sitting at 3.6 last week. All six core playoff contenders in these leagues won, and James Madison’s loss lessens the probability of the Group of Five wriggling its way into two bids.
• Nine Group of Five teams now have better than a 1-in-100 playoff shot. Louisiana and Western Kentucky are newly both theoretical possibilities. JMU is now well south of the 1-in-100 threshold. In probability order, the nine are Boise State, UNLV, Army, Tulane, Liberty, Navy, Memphis, WKU, and Louisiana.

Looking ahead to Week 9:

• Alabama hosts Missouri, possibly needing a win to retain a realistic playoff chance. At this point, margin’s mattering for the Tide as well. Playoff probability can drop with a win.
• LSU and Texas A&M meet in College Station, each looking to climb the bubble.
• Boise State and UNLV play Friday night, but given the playoff bid’s tie to a conference championship, UNLV won’t necessarily pass the Broncos in our projection even if they win. Again, margin matters, in this case potentially determining the hypothetical favorite in a MWC Championship rematch.
• Further down the bubble, Indiana hosts Washington and Pitt hosts Syracuse, each trying to stay undefeated.
• In total, six of the twelve teams in our bracket play an opponent with at least five wins. Oregon hosts Illinois. Texas visits Vanderbilt. Notre Dame’s playing Navy in New Jersey. Penn State’s at Camp Randall. Ohio State welcomes Nebraska to the Horseshoe.

Plenty more, of course, as the week goes on. Here’s how the picture’s changed week over week. Apologies again for the continued deterioration of this table’s readability. We swear we’ll get it fixed soon.