College Football Bracketology: Week 5, 2024

This bracketology is our College Football Model’s best current prediction of where the College Football Playoff field will ultimately land. It is not a reflection of where things currently stand. Here’s a link to an explanation of how it all works. Here’s another link to our model’s homepage, through which you can access CFP probabilities, national championship probabilities, single-game spreads, and more.

Cotton Bowl Side

First Round: 9-seed Mississippi at 8-seed Oregon
First Round: 12-seed James Madison at 5-seed Alabama

Sugar Bowl: Texas vs. Oregon/Miss winner
Fiesta Bowl: Utah vs. Alabama/JMU winner

Orange Bowl Side

First Round: 10-seed Penn State at 7-seed Tennessee
First Round: 11-seed Notre Dame at 6-seed Georgia

Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Tenn/PSU winner
Peach Bowl: Clemson vs. UGA/ND winner

**

Three big moves this week:

• Memphis lost to Navy, so with James Madison blowing out UNC, the Dukes are back into the Group of Five’s playoff spot. They’re only about 3-in-10 likely to make it, but they’re the clear favorite, and they’d probably be the team chosen if the season ended today.
• BYU beat Kansas State, so with Utah winning in Stillwater, the Utes are our new Big 12 favorites. Their average final ranking is worse than Clemson’s, so Clemson moves back into the 3-seed, but when this is the pair, that split isn’t quite as meaningful, since Utah would be in the Fiesta Bowl as the 3-seed anyway (and right now it’s looking like two of Texas, Alabama, and Georgia will occupy the 5-seed and the 6-seed slots, lessening the competitive advantage of the better seed). When it was Kansas State, they and Clemson were grappling for the right to play in the Peach Bowl, where at least Clemson would probably enjoy a greater crowd advantage.
• With the win over Oklahoma, Tennessee’s projection improved enough to where it would get them a home game. This bumps Mississippi down to playing Oregon on the road.

More details:

• Miami is our first team out, followed by Michigan, Louisville, and Washington State.
• Our model expects 7.63 of these teams to make the eventual playoff. There’s a lot of shuffling yet to come.
• The ACC is now narrowly favored to send multiple teams to the playoff. In the average scenario, the SEC sends four, the Big Ten sends three, the ACC sends two, the Big 12 sends one, and one of Notre Dame/Washington State makes it in addition to the Group of Five’s representative.
• The Mountain West is the likeliest conference to send its champion to the Group of Five’s position. JMU is nearly the Sun Belt’s only hope.

Looking ahead to the Week 5 games:

• Depending how Georgia/Alabama goes, we might have a new SEC favorite, which would mean a new top overall seed (which could be one of those two or could be Ohio State).
• Louisville goes to Notre Dame in a big one for 1) the at-large bubble and 2) us learning how good Louisville is, and through that how seriously they’ll challenge in the ACC.
• Oklahoma State’s at Kansas State, and while that shouldn’t change who the Big 12 favorite is, it might clarify the picture a little.
• Penn State hosts Illinois. Most likely, Penn State wins and not a lot changes with their situation. Our model still doesn’t expect Illinois to be a great feather in the cap by the end of the year.
• Washington State plays on the blue turf in Boise, which should give us clarity on the seriousness of both those teams’ chances. Elsewhere in the Mountain West, UNLV hosts Fresno State in the year’s first meeting within the Mountain West’s big four.
• James Madison hosts Ball State, which should make next week the first week our 12-seed holds steady. Liberty’s playing Appalachian State on the road, though, and it’s possible the Flames’ 12–0 chances will improve enough with a win to vault them past the Dukes.

How the picture’s changed, week by week: