So it turns out the committee loves Boise State.
This bracketology is our college football model’s best current prediction of where the College Football Playoff field will ultimately land. It is not a reflection of where things currently stand. Here’s a link to an explanation of how it all works. Here’s another link to our model’s homepage, where you can access CFP probabilities, national championship probabilities, single-game spreads, and more.
Cotton Bowl Side
First Round: 9-seed Tennessee at 8-seed Penn State
First Round: 12-seed Indiana at 5-seed Ohio State
Rose Bowl: 1-seed Oregon vs. PSU/Tenn winner
Fiesta Bowl: 4-seed Boise State vs. OSU/IU winner
Orange Bowl Side
First Round: 10-seed Alabama at 7-seed Notre Dame
First Round: 11-seed BYU at 6-seed Georgia
Peach Bowl: 2-seed Miami vs. ND/Bama winner
Sugar Bowl: 3-seed Texas vs. UGA/BYU winner
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We’ve got more on the rankings themselves in a separate post, but after last night’s rankings, this is where our model stacks up the contenders’ average outcomes. At the moment, Boise State has a better average final CFP ranking than anyone in the Big 12.
Is this going to hold up? Our model leans towards yes. Incorporating last night’s games and rankings, our simulations now show us a 57% probability that Boise State gets a bye. There are scenarios within those simulations where a conference other than the Big 12 loses that bye, but most of the time, it’s the Big 12 getting the boot. Our model was previously underestimating what the committee would think of Boise State, but as we’re also seeing with Indiana and SMU, the committee is more in line with public opinion than it is with previous precedent. There’s nothing necessarily right or wrong about that. But it’s surprising.
More movement:
- The committee also really likes Penn State, enough to not only push the Nittany Lions back into our projected field but also earn PSU a home game. Again, our model narrowly expects this to hold up. Penn State’s average final CFP ranking is 8th in our model’s newest simulations.
- With Penn State moving in, SMU moves out. SMU’s still narrowly likelier than not to make the playoff—both they and Indiana check in at 52% (Indiana dropped from the 8-seed to the 12-seed)—but it was a bad night for the Mustangs.
More details:
- SMU is our first team out, followed by Mississippi, LSU, and Texas A&M. What that means is that those are the four teams with the next-best average final CFP ranking in our simulations.
- Our model projects 10.0 teams to make the playoff from among these 12. That’s a little higher than it was going into the rankings. The rankings solidified the picture a tiny bit more.
- Going back to Boise State and BYU for a minute: I don’t have this data readily available, but my guess is that if BYU beats Utah, BYU will move back into the 4-seed projection. Still, Boise State’s 12-seed expectations have risen. They’re in the middle of this thing.
Our next update will follow the Week 11 games. Until then, here’s how the picture’s changed throughout the season.
