Our CFP Bracketology is back. We’ll have all the details about how it works posted somewhere on the site tomorrow, but the big picture is the same as last year: This is our model’s current best guess of where each team will finish the season. This isn’t the one likeliest bracket (the modal bracket, for those who want stats lingo). This is, in our model’s eyes, how every team’s average finish compares to every other team’s average finish.
More details? We simulate the remainder of the season 10,000 times. We select the five conference favorites and seven remaining teams with the highest average final playoff ranking. We seed those teams based on average ranking. We build the bracket according to our understanding of the CFP’s rules.
Flaws to be aware of: First, Movelor (our power rating) has a spotty early-season record, making virtually no updates from the end of last season’s rankings. Second, our model doesn’t presently account for any conference tiebreakers.
As for the bracket…
Peach Bowl Side
#1 Seed: Ohio State (Average Final CFP Rank: 6.1)
The AP likes the Longhorns. Movelor likes the Buckeyes. This weekend gives everybody a useful early test.
#8 Seed: Clemson (Average Final CFP Rank: 19.1)
#9 Seed: Arizona State (Average Final CFP Rank: 20.2)
Meeting the Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl in our bracket is one of the Middle 2 champions. Clemson is Movelor’s ACC favorite. Arizona State is Movelor’s Big 12 favorite. Their presence in the 8/9 game is fitting. (Apologies for erroneously giving that Big 12 favorite distinction to Iowa State last weekend. Movelor likes ASU enough to outweigh ISU already banking a conference win.)
#4 Seed: Oregon (Average Final CFP Rank: 13.1)
In our model’s bracket, you’re going to see three Big Ten teams seeded above any SEC teams. Does this mean our model thinks there’ll be three Big Ten teams ahead of the SEC’s first? No. What this reflects, in part, is how much easier Oregon and Ohio State and Penn State’s regular seasons are than Texas’s, Georgia’s, Alabama’s, etc.
To be fair, Movelor does think Oregon and Penn State are each a little better than Texas, and it isn’t impossible we’ll see this kind of scenario play out. If Ohio State wins on Saturday—and they’re favored to win—I’d imagine our bracket doesn’t look very different come Tuesday. But a lot of this is that the SEC has a stronger middle than the Big Ten, which had a stronger top end last year and might again this season.
#5 Seed: Texas (Average Final CFP Rank: 13.9)
#12 Seed: Boise State (Average Final CFP Rank: 36.4)
Meeting the Ducks in the Cotton Bowl? Probably the Longhorns, if this is the matchup. In the past, Movelor’s seen some ghosts with early Group of Five favorites. We’ve made some adjustments to bring it around faster (more on that tomorrow), but for the time being, our model likes teams that were good last year. With Boise State, that’s not a bad bet. It’s unlikely that the Broncos start 12–1 again, but it’s likelier than it is for any other Group of Five team, based on what we know. There’s an incumbency advantage too, since the committee doesn’t (and frankly can’t) give mid-majors the same scrutiny it gives the power conferences. Boise State has credibility. Credibility helps.
Fiesta Bowl Side
#2 Seed: Notre Dame (Average Final CFP Rank: 8.9)
The Fighting Irish have a frontloaded schedule. We’ll know a lot more about them at the end of September, when they’ll have visited Miami, hosted Texas A&M and Purdue, and visited Arkansas. For now, Movelor’s best guess is that they’re still probably very good. Beat Miami, and they’ll be in the driver’s seat.
#7 Seed: Alabama (Average Final CFP Rank: 16.6)
#10 Seed: Miami (Average Final CFP Rank: 21.7)
How easy is it to make the playoff out of the ACC? Movelor has LSU, Michigan, and Florida all rated as better football teams than Miami. LSU and Florida’s average final ranking lands outside the Top 25. Michigan’s is a spot and a half being Miami’s. If making the playoff is as life-or-death as people imply, there are strong arguments against ACC programs trying to join the SEC.
Will we see Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, as this bracket implies? Possibly. Movelor does care about bowl games, but Movelor also liked Michigan last year more than the consensus did. If we were to introduce a subjective volatility metric, we would crank that thing up on both these programs right now. Miami is always liable to explode. Alabama might have a power vacuum by Saturday night. But this is an objective process.
#3 Seed: Penn State (Average Final CFP Rank: 10.3)
A reminder here that 10.3rd is not the same as 3rd. Through Movelor’s eyes, Penn State’s got the third-best preseason situation. Without accounting for tiebreakers, though, it only has a 1-in-4 chance to win the Big Ten. As we said in the Oregon blurb, the Big Ten runner-up could absolutely wind up the 3-seed. It would probably require Notre Dame losing twice, no 13–0 team out of the Big 12 and ACC, and/or some SEC cannibalism. Not all that likely, especially when you factor in the little-p politics.
#6 Seed: Georgia (Average Final CFP Rank: 16.5)
#11 Seed: Mississippi (Average Final CFP Rank: 22.6)
We talked on Sunday about Movelor being higher on Mississippi than the experts. It’s not alone in that. SP+ and FPI are both Mississippi fans. Given Georgia’s talent and Lane Kiffin’s overperformance with finding productive transfers, both these teams might be underrated. But if you want to swap in LSU or South Carolina or Illinois in your head, go for it. Before the season starts, the experts are pretty good at what they do. It’s once the season gets going that the AP Poll gets batty.
Full Bracket
We’ll get the graphic put together for next week, but to spell it all out (these are seeds, not rankings):
Rose Bowl: #1 Ohio State vs. #8 Clemson or #9 ASU
Cotton Bowl: #4 Oregon vs. #5 Texas or #12 Boise State
Sugar Bowl: #2 Notre Dame vs. #7 Alabama or #10 Miami (FL)
Orange Bowl: #3 Penn State vs. #6 Georgia or #11 Mississippi
Peach Bowl: Rose Bowl Winner vs. Cotton Bowl Winner
Fiesta Bowl: Sugar Bowl Winner vs. Orange Bowl Winner
It’s fun to look at.
Tonight!
We’ll do this (and everything) in a more organized fashion before Week 2. For tonight, though, we’re just going to list Movelor’s spread for every game, kind of like how we did it for Week Zero. You can find those below. First, some little previews for tonight’s bigger games:
There’s going to be a lot of focus on the “post-Ashton Jeanty” version of Boise State. Really, this is mostly the same team as last year, for better and worse. Big opportunity for USF, and a pretty high-leverage game for playoff purposes as far as Week 1 Group of Five matchups go. Boise’s the Group of Five favorite until proven otherwise. Win ugly and they’re still probably ahead of the AAC favorite, whoever that might be. Lose, and the race immediately gets to its usual wide-open place. Fun way to kick off the weekend.
Tim Albin’s off to Charlotte and Greg Schiano got Rutgers to a bowl game last year, so the idea in Rutgers vs. Ohio is mostly confirmation of our priors. We assume those teams are headed in opposite directions. Are they?
East Carolina finished last season hot under then-interim, now-full time head coach Blake Harrell. However. All the teams they beat finished with losing records. However! One of those was NC State? The bottom line here is that this is a game NC State should win, even if ECU won eight months ago today. There is downside for the Wolfpack and upside for the Pirates. It’s not the other way around.
To combine a pair: Scott Frost is back at UCF while Matt Rhule enters Year 3 in Lincoln. Frost gets the post-Rich Rodriguez version of Jacksonville State. Rhule gets a potentially dangerous Cincinnati at Arrowhead Stadium. Frost should be fine tonight. Rhule should be too, but the risk and the consequence are both bigger. Scott Satterfield is a weird coach and a weird dude, but there’s a chance he knows what he’s doing and turns the Dylan Raiola era prematurely miserable for Husker fans. I don’t think you want Scott Satterfield as your coach if you’re trying to make a playoff. You could do worse if you’re trying to get to 7–5 and figure out the future from there.
Last—for us at least—Wisconsin gets a chance to feel good about itself. Miami–Ohio is usually competitive by season’s end, but they haven’t opened with a win since 2020, a year they only got to play three games. As with Rhule’s, Luke Fickell’s downside is catastrophic, but the risk tonight is smaller.
As for Movelor (Movelor treats all sub-D1 teams the same):
- Boise State by 10.8 at USF
- Bowling Green by 28.6 over Lafayette
- Indiana State by 23.5 over McKendree
- Rutgers by 6.6 over Ohio
- Youngstown State by 21.5 over Mercyhurst
- Wyoming by 4.5 at Akron
- Delaware by 40.0 over Delaware State
- Eastern Illinois by 8.4 over Dayton
- Houston Christian by 21.1 over Arkansas Baptist
- Louisiana Monroe by 26.3 over Saint Francis (PA)
- NC State by 5.8 over East Carolina
- Towson by 17.6 at Norfolk State
- Lindenwood by 5.6 at St. Thomas
- UCF by 4.3 over Jacksonville State
- Drake by 21.1 over Upper Iowa
- Duke by 29.2 over Elon
- Missouri by 39.9 over Central Arkansas
- Oklahoma State by 16.6 over UT Martin
- Samford by 9.7 over West Georgia
- Houston by 16.5 over Stephen F. Austin
- Minnesota by 21.8 over Buffalo
- Alcorn State by 20.2 at Northwestern State
- UAB by 21.2 over Alabama State
- Nebraska by 10.7 vs. Cincinnati
- Wisconsin by 6.0 over Miami (OH)
- San Diego State by 11.1 over Stony Brook
Tomorrow we’re planning a more customary Week 1 preview. Thanks as always for bearing with us. The child is healthier. I am getting there. The Barking Crow still exists, for now.
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