College Basketball Probabilities

Our college basketball model simulates the remainder of the season 10,000 times, including the selection process and postseason tournaments. Here is how the model works, in full detail.

If you notice any irregularities or have questions of any sort, please contact me through the information available on our about page or on twitter: @joestunardi. If you’re looking for bracketology or Bubble Watch, those links are here:

This is best viewed on a computer, but if viewing on an iPhone, sometimes double-tapping with two fingers will expand the screen to fit the full table.

Last Updated: Tuesday 4/2

TeamConferenceMake NCAA TournamentWin NCAA TournamentMake NITWin NIT
Indiana StateMissouri Valley0.0%0.0%100.0%56.0%
UtahPac-120.0%0.0%100.0%44.0%
UConnBig East100.0%50.2%0.0%0.0%
PurdueBig Ten100.0%38.6%0.0%0.0%
AlabamaSEC100.0%8.5%0.0%0.0%
NC StateACC100.0%2.7%0.0%0.0%
Seton HallBig East0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
GeorgiaSEC0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
UNLVMountain West0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
VCUAtlantic 100.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
Ohio StateBig Ten0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
CincinnatiBig 120.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
Wake ForestACC0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
IowaBig Ten0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
Boston CollegeACC0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
South FloridaAmerican0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
MinnesotaBig Ten0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
Virginia TechACC0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
BradleyMissouri Valley0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
North TexasAmerican0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
VillanovaBig East0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
PrincetonIvy League0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
SMUAmerican0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
San FranciscoWCC0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
Appalachian StateSun Belt0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
Saint Joseph'sAtlantic 100.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
ProvidenceBig East0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
ButlerBig East0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
UCFBig 120.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
XavierBig East0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
LSUSEC0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
Kansas StateBig 120.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
UC IrvineBig West0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
RichmondAtlantic 100.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
CornellIvy League0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
Loyola (IL)Atlantic 100.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
DukeACC100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
TennesseeSEC100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
IllinoisBig Ten100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
ClemsonACC100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
HoustonBig 12100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
MarquetteBig East100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
CreightonBig East100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
GonzagaWCC100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
ArizonaPac-12100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
North CarolinaACC100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Iowa StateBig 12100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
San Diego StateMountain West100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
BaylorBig 12100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
ColoradoPac-12100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Texas A&MSEC100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NorthwesternBig Ten100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Grand CanyonWAC100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Utah StateMountain West100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
James MadisonSun Belt100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
YaleIvy League100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Michigan StateBig Ten100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
KansasBig 12100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
DaytonAtlantic 10100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
TexasBig 12100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Washington StatePac-12100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
OregonPac-12100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
DuquesneAtlantic 10100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AuburnSEC100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
WisconsinBig Ten100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Saint Mary'sWCC100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
New MexicoMountain West100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FloridaSEC100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NebraskaBig Ten100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
TCUBig 12100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Florida AtlanticAmerican100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
VermontAmerica East100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
OaklandHorizon League100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
KentuckySEC100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
BYUBig 12100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Texas TechBig 12100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Colorado StateMountain West100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Mississippi StateSEC100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NevadaMountain West100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
South CarolinaSEC100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
DrakeMissouri Valley100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
McNeeseSouthland100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Boise StateMountain West100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
SamfordSoCon100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
VirginiaACC100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
College of CharlestonCAA100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UABAmerican100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Morehead StateOhio Valley100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
StetsonASUN100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
LongwoodBig South100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
South Dakota StateSummit League100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
WagnerNEC100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
ColgatePatriot League100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Montana StateBig Sky100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AkronMAC100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Western KentuckyConference USA100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
HowardMEAC100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Long Beach StateBig West100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Grambling StateSWAC100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Saint Peter'sMAAC100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
PittACC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
WashingtonPac-120.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
SyracuseACC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
St. John'sBig East0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Florida StateACC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
OklahomaBig 120.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
MemphisAmerican0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
MississippiSEC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
IndianaBig Ten0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UMassAtlantic 100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
MarylandBig Ten0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
George MasonAtlantic 100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
St. BonaventureAtlantic 100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Penn StateBig Ten0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
RutgersBig Ten0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
TempleAmerican0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
BrownIvy League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FairfieldMAAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Texas SouthernSWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UC DavisBig West0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Delaware StateMEAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UTEPConference USA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Kent StateMAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UT ArlingtonWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UMass LowellAmerica East0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
ArkansasSEC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
USCPac-120.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Oklahoma StateBig 120.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
CharlotteAmerican0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
StanfordPac-120.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Norfolk StateMEAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sam Houston StateConference USA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
QuinnipiacMAAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
ToledoMAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
SouthernSWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
LibertyConference USA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
OhioMAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Jackson StateSWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Alabama A&MSWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
MaristMAAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
HawaiiBig West0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
SeattleWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
RiderMAAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Middle TennesseeConference USA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
South Carolina StateMEAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Bethune-CookmanSWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Bowling Green StateMAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Stephen F. AustinWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NiagaraMAAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UC RiversideBig West0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Central MichiganMAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Miami (OH)MAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cal State NorthridgeBig West0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
New Mexico StateConference USA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
California BaptistWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Morgan StateMEAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UCLAPac-120.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Western MichiganMAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
TulaneAmerican0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Wichita StateAmerican0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
East CarolinaAmerican0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
TulsaAmerican0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Fresno StateMountain West0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
GeorgetownBig East0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
CalPac-120.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Arizona StatePac-120.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
MontanaBig Sky0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Louisiana TechConference USA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
LehighPatriot League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Alcorn StateSWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
IonaMAAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NichollsSouthland0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Alabama StateSWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
CanisiusMAAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UC Santa BarbaraBig West0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Utah ValleyWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FIUConference USA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cal State BakersfieldBig West0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Abilene ChristianWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
WyomingMountain West0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Coppin StateMEAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Saint LouisAtlantic 100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
La SalleAtlantic 100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FordhamAtlantic 100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Oregon StatePac-120.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Notre DameACC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
RiceAmerican0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UTSAAmerican0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
MichiganBig Ten0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
MissouriSEC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Miami (FL)ACC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Georgia TechACC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
MerrimackNEC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
MilwaukeeHorizon League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Stony BrookCAA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
DenverSummit League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Idaho StateBig Sky0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Texas A&M-Corpus ChristiSouthland0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
BryantAmerica East0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sacramento StateBig Sky0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
LamarSouthland0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Mount St. Mary'sMAAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Jacksonville StateConference USA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
New HampshireAmerica East0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
DavidsonAtlantic 100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
ManhattanMAAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Rhode IslandAtlantic 100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
SienaMAAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
HofstraCAA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Weber StateBig Sky0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Arkansas StateSun Belt0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Northern KentuckyHorizon League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
East Tennessee StateSoCon0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cleveland StateHorizon League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
TowsonCAA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
OmahaSummit League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Portland StateBig Sky0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Santa ClaraWCC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
New OrleansSouthland0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
LouisvilleACC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
San Jose StateMountain West0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UNC AshevilleBig South0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Austin PeayASUN0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Eastern WashingtonBig Sky0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
ChattanoogaSoCon0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
DrexelCAA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FurmanSoCon0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Northern ColoradoBig Sky0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Boston UniversityPatriot League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
North DakotaSummit League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
BucknellPatriot League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
DelawareCAA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Texas StateSun Belt0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
MonmouthCAA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
North Dakota StateSummit League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Southeastern LouisianaSouthland0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Northwestern StateSouthland0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Air ForceMountain West0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
High PointBig South0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Central Connecticut StateNEC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Little RockOhio Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Western CarolinaSoCon0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UNC GreensboroSoCon0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Kansas CitySummit League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
TroySun Belt0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Gardner-WebbBig South0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Northern IowaMissouri Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
LouisianaSun Belt0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
WoffordSoCon0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Arkansas-Pine BluffSWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
MaineAmerica East0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
MercerSoCon0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Oral RobertsSummit League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
BinghamtonAmerica East0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AlbanyAmerica East0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Northern ArizonaBig Sky0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NortheasternCAA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
MarshallSun Belt0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UMBCAmerica East0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
South DakotaSummit League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
IdahoBig Sky0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Georgia SouthernSun Belt0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
CampbellCAA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cal State FullertonBig West0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
San DiegoWCC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
George WashingtonAtlantic 100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
William & MaryCAA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
West VirginiaBig 120.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
HamptonCAA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UT MartinOhio Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Western IllinoisOhio Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
WinthropBig South0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
BelmontMissouri Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
RadfordBig South0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
PresbyterianBig South0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Missouri StateMissouri Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UICMissouri Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Charleston SouthernBig South0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Ball StateMAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
EvansvilleMissouri Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
The CitadelSoCon0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Loyola MarymountWCC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
PepperdineWCC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
ElonCAA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
VanderbiltSEC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Youngstown StateHorizon League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Wright StateHorizon League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
North AlabamaASUN0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Purdue Fort WayneHorizon League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sacred HeartNEC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
JacksonvilleASUN0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Green BayHorizon League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AmericanPatriot League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
LafayettePatriot League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Southern IllinoisMissouri Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Tennessee StateOhio Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
SIU EdwardsvilleOhio Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Murray StateMissouri Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NavyPatriot League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Georgia StateSun Belt0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
South AlabamaSun Belt0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Illinois StateMissouri Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Southern MissSun Belt0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
LIUNEC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Eastern IllinoisOhio Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
USC UpstateBig South0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Holy CrossPatriot League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Saint FrancisNEC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Coastal CarolinaSun Belt0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
ValparaisoMissouri Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
PortlandWCC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Houston ChristianSouthland0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Eastern KentuckyASUN0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
LipscombASUN0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
North FloridaASUN0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
ArmyPatriot League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Robert MorrisHorizon League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Old DominionSun Belt0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Louisiana MonroeSun Belt0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Loyola (MD)Patriot League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Incarnate WordSouthland0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Florida Gulf CoastASUN0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Kennesaw StateASUN0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
HarvardIvy League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Tennessee TechOhio Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
ColumbiaIvy League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
StonehillNEC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
North Carolina A&TCAA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
VMISoCon0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Central ArkansasASUN0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Eastern MichiganMAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Detroit MercyHorizon League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Southern UtahWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
TarletonWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NJITAmerica East0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Le MoyneNEC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
PennIvy League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
BellarmineASUN0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
QueensASUN0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
DePaulBig East0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UC San DiegoBig West0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cal PolyBig West0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
IUPUIHorizon League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Chicago StateIndependent0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
DartmouthIvy League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
BuffaloMAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Northern IllinoisMAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
LindenwoodOhio Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Southern IndianaOhio Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Southeast Missouri StateOhio Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Texas A&M-CommerceSouthland0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
St. ThomasSummit League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Florida A&MSWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Mississippi Valley StateSWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Utah TechWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
PacificWCC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

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