College Basketball Probabilities

Our college basketball model simulates the remainder of the season 10,000 times, including the selection process and postseason tournaments. Here’s how the model works, in full detail. For your purposes here, all you really need to know is that we start these simulations with Ken Pomeroy’s kenpom ratings, allowing the ratings to change depending on whether a team is exceeding expectations or underwhelming expectations in a specific simulation. All credit to Pomeroy for doing the real work here. We just took his numbers, applied them to the NIT, and added a little wrinkle.

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Last Updated: 2:30 AM EDT, Wednesday 4/2

NIT Probabilities

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Team	Second Round	Quarterfinals	Final Four	Championship	Champions

Team	Second Round	Quarterfinals	Final Four	Championship	Champions
UC Irvine	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	63.0%
Chattanooga	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	37.0%
North Texas	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Loyola Chicago	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Kent State	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
UAB	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Bradley	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Oklahoma State	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Showing 1 to 8 of 32 entries

NCAA Tournament Probabilities

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Team	First Round	Second Round	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final 4	Championship	Champions

Team	First Round	Second Round	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final 4	Championship	Champions
Duke	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	57.3%	34.7%
Florida	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	51.7%	22.2%
Houston	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	42.8%	22.7%
Auburn	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	48.3%	20.5%
Tennessee	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Michigan State	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Alabama	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Texas Tech	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Kentucky	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Purdue	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Mississippi	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Michigan	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Maryland	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Arizona	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
BYU	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Arkansas	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Showing 1 to 16 of 68 entries