College Basketball Probabilities
NOTE: THIS IS NOT YET UPDATED FOR THE 2025–26 COLLEGE BASKETBALL SEASON. UPDATE COMING SOON. MORE INFO HERE.
Our college basketball model simulates the remainder of the season 10,000 times, including the selection process and postseason tournaments. Here’s how the model works, in full detail. For your purposes here, all you really need to know is that we start these simulations with Ken Pomeroy’s kenpom ratings, allowing the ratings to change depending on whether a team is exceeding expectations or underwhelming expectations in a specific simulation. All credit to Pomeroy for doing the real work here. We just took his numbers, applied them to the NIT, and added a little wrinkle.
This is best viewed on a computer, but if viewing on an iPhone, sometimes double-tapping with two fingers will expand the screen to fit the full table.
Last Updated: 2:30 AM EDT, Wednesday 4/2
NIT Probabilities
| Team | Second Round | Quarterfinals | Final Four | Championship | Champions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Irvine | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 63.0% |
| Chattanooga | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 37.0% |
| North Texas | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Loyola Chicago | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kent State | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UAB | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bradley | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oklahoma State | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| SMU | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Santa Clara | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| San Francisco | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stanford | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arkansas State | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacksonville State | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Mason | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dayton | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Saint Joseph's | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Florida Atlantic | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| North Alabama | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Utah Valley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samford | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northern Iowa | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northern Colorado | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| San Jose State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Furman | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| St. Bonaventure | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Middle Tennessee | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Georgia Tech | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cal State Northridge | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Saint Louis | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wichita State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UC Riverside | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NCAA Tournament Probabilities
| Team | First Round | Second Round | Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Championship | Champions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 57.3% | 34.7% |
| Florida | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 51.7% | 22.2% |
| Houston | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 42.8% | 22.7% |
| Auburn | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 48.3% | 20.5% |
| Tennessee | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michigan State | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alabama | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Texas Tech | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kentucky | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Purdue | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mississippi | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michigan | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maryland | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arizona | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| BYU | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arkansas | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Iowa State | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Illinois | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Saint Mary's | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oregon | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Baylor | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colorado State | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UConn | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| New Mexico | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| St. John's | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gonzaga | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wisconsin | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Texas A&M | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UCLA | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Creighton | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| McNeese | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| North Carolina | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Xavier | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mount St. Mary's | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alabama State | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marquette | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mississippi State | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oklahoma | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Memphis | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vanderbilt | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liberty | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lipscomb | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grand Canyon | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Troy | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Akron | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Morris | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bryant | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Norfolk State | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Missouri | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clemson | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kansas | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louisville | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| VCU | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UC San Diego | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Georgia | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Utah State | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| High Point | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Yale | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UNC Wilmington | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wofford | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Montana | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Omaha | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| SIU Edwardsville | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Texas | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| American | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| San Diego State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Saint Francis | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
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