On October 13th, 2017, with less than a minute remaining in the second quarter, Clemson quarterback Kelly Bryant took a hit from Syracuse defensive tackle Chris Slayton. After a few minutes on the Carrier Dome floor, he was helped to the locker room, where he was diagnosed with a concussion. Already struggling (the Tigers trailed 17-14 at the time of the injury), Clemson limped to a 27-24 defeat, their first of the regular season.
After two more weeks of play, the first College Football Playoff Rankings of the year were unveiled, with five undefeated teams and ten one-loss teams among those ranked. Clemson, with two top-25 wins, was ranked ahead of three of these undefeated teams, and was ranked ahead of eight of their fellow one-loss teams. They were ranked ahead of Oklahoma, whose loss came to a ranked Iowa State and who’d beaten Ohio State on the road. They were ranked ahead of Ohio State, who’d beaten Penn State at home and lost only to Oklahoma. They were ranked ahead of TCU, who’d beaten ranked Oklahoma State and only lost to that same ranked Iowa State team. Of the eight one-loss teams ranked behind them, only one had lost to a team unranked in that edition of the rankings.
To be fair, Clemson had two top-25 wins—a victory over Auburn, who landed at 14th in the poll with two losses; and a victory over Virginia Tech, who landed at 13th with just the one loss. To continue to be fair, it’s reasonable to expect that the presence of Kelly Bryant in the second half would have been enough to make a three-point difference, though again, Clemson was trailing at the moment he suffered the injury, after nearly a full half of football.
At season’s end, Clemson was ranked 1st by the committee. They finished 12-1, with a 14-6 victory over Auburn at home (Auburn finished ranked 7th), a 38-3 neutral site victory over Miami (Miami finished ranked 10th), and victories at Virginia Tech and NC State by two touchdowns and one touchdown, respectively (the Hokies finished ranked 22nd, the Wolfpack finished ranked 24th). Behind them were Oklahoma (12-1, one loss to by-then unranked Iowa State, four top-25 wins including the road win at Ohio State), Georgia (12-1, one loss at Auburn, three top-25 wins including an avenging of the Auburn loss), and Alabama (11-1, one loss at Auburn, two top-25 wins). Syracuse failed to win a game after defeating the Tigers, finishing the year 4-8, in last place in the ACC’s Atlantic Division.
Now, we aren’t rehashing this to criticize the 2017 College Football Playoff Rankings. They were fine. Clemson had beaten Auburn, Georgia’d split with Auburn, Alabama’d lost to Auburn. Oklahoma’s loss came at home—though if we’re bringing up home-field, neither Georgia nor Bama got to play Auburn on their own land. No, we aren’t criticizing the 2017 CFP Rankings. What we’re doing is going through the one time in these last six years in which an injury-driven loss was a focal point for the committee. In our sample size of one, Clemson was forgiven that loss, climbing from what likely would have been a ranking of 3rd to 1st.
We don’t have a lot of information on how the CFP committees deal with injuries, because in college football, they’re rarely obviously impactful. If they are, they’re often lasting, and it becomes a matter of how it impacts a team going forward—though there isn’t a ton of information to suggest those play a significant role: all major (top four-impacting) ranking decisions with injury explanations available also have alternative, viable, numerically-based explanations. We do have one example of a time a team’s quarterback missed a half in a game in which his team was already playing badly. Even with the caveats, the loss was forgiven.
This is relevant this weekend, because it means Clemson effectively has one of those Aaron-Rodgers-just-drew-the-defense-offsides free plays. If they beat Notre Dame without Trevor Lawrence, this is a non-question. If they lose, history suggests it will be forgiven.
Of course, Clemson already had a free play, in a way. They’re playing Notre Dame on the road in a system in which they’ll still make their conference championship—and get a rematch with the Irish—if they lose. But it’s a doubly free pass. Because Trevor Lawrence is not going to be on the field.
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Other Games that Matter
BYU @ Boise State (Friday, 9:45 PM EST, FS1)
BYU’s trying to keep the undefeated season going and get a marquee victory. With the Pac-12 playing so few games, no undefeated teams in the SEC East, and no undefeated Big 12 teams (and likely none with fewer than two losses when this is over), the path is there for the Cougars. They’ve gotten a lot of airtime. They have a Heisman candidate in Zach Wilson. They’re playing on the blue turf against a team that might not lose another game.
For Boise State’s part, it’s not inconceivable that the Broncos could make the playoff four, though a lot more would have to break in their favor. Beating BYU, and doing it handily, would be a start.
Florida vs. Georgia (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST, CBS)
Texas A&M might have something to say about this being the SEC Runner-Up Game, but it’s almost certainly an elimination game within the tier of playoff contenders that’s on the outside looking in.
Games that Might Matter
Liberty @ Virginia Tech (Saturday, 12:00 PM EST, ACC Network)
UMass @ Marshall (Saturday, 2:30 PM EST, ESPN+)
South Alabama @ Coastal Carolina (Saturday, 8:00 PM EST, ESPNU)
Obligatory mention of the three Group of Five (or independent, in Liberty’s case) schools that don’t have a playoff path but are undefeated.
Houston @ Cincinnati (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST, ABC)
Obligatory mention of the undefeated Group of Five school that does have a path.
Arizona State @ USC (12:00 PM EST, FOX)
Stanford @ Oregon (Saturday, 7:30 PM EST, ABC)
Obligatory mention of the Pac-12 favorites, and yes, USC’s playing in the 9:00 AM local time game.
Rutgers @ Ohio State (Saturday, 7:30 PM EST, Big Ten Network)
Obligatory mention of the only team-that’s-in trying to avoid disaster this week.
