A law of the 2021 MLB Playoffs seems to be this:
If you write a team off, they will immediately win their next game.
The Dodgers are alive.
What Happened
Los Angeles 11, Atlanta 2
Atlanta had the lead. Freddie Freeman took Joe Kelly yard for two runs in the first. The NL East champions had an ace on the mound. They were on their way.
Chris Taylor had other plans.
A four-hit, three-home run day from the utility man later, Atlanta lay in the dust of Dodger Stadium in smithereens, traveling back home with a 3-2 lead much too familiar after last year’s similar script ended in a seven-game elimination.
Of course, if you write a team off…
The Heroes
Win Probability Added leaders, from FanGraphs:
- Taylor (0.38)
- Freeman (0.13)
What It Means
Atlanta remains favored to win the series, but it’s down to two-in-three on FanGraphs, while the Astros still sit at three-in-four to win the ALCS and two-in-five to win the World Series. The Dodgers’ World Series repeat chances rise to one-in-five.
Other Notes
- Jorge Soler returned to the Atlanta roster, replacing Christian Pache. Dylan Lee replaced Huascar Ynoa. Andy Burnes replaced Justin Turner for Los Angeles. Kelly left the game with a biceps strain and likely won’t pitch again this postseason, replaced on the roster by good friend David Price.
- Fourteen balls were hit 104 mph or harder. Eleven by the Dodgers.
- After Kelly left, the Dodgers bullpen recorded 25 outs without allowing a run, yielding just three hits while striking out nine and walking none. Evan Phillips, Corey Knebel, and Brusdar Graterol contributed a combined eight of the strikeouts.
- Trea Turner and Cody Bellinger each had three hits. Albert Pujols was on base three times. A.J. Pollock homered twice.
- Eddie Rosario had two more hits.
- Every Atlanta pitcher allowed at least one home run.
***
Tonight:
The Basics
Where: Minute Maid Park
When: 8:08 PM EDT
Broadcast: FS1
Starting Pitchers: Luis Garcia (HOU), Nathan Eovaldi (BOS)
Odds: HOU -115; BOS -105; o/u 9 (u -115) [English translation: The Astros are roughly 51% likely to win; the Red Sox are roughly 49% likely to win; the expected number of runs scored is something like 8.9]
The Details
Can the Red Sox even it up? They’ll have Eovaldi on the mound just three days after 24 pitches and a Laz Diaz misfire gave way to a furious Astros rally in Game 4. For the Astros, Luis Garcia’s knee is fine, but the memory of yielding a first-inning grand slam and walking three in his last start, with another dud before that one, loom large in the mind. One would assume everyone is available for Houston save Framber Valdez, with Game 4 hero Cristian Javier relevant in that context. For the Red Sox, everyone but Chris Sale and presumably Eduardo Rodriguez will be good to go (Rodriguez could theoretically go on three days’ rest, but one would guess that’ll only happen if this goes into extras).
It’s a war of attrition for these weathered pitching staffs, and the offenses figure to keep weathering them. As the Astros showed in Games 4 and 5, it’s a crack in a fountain right now. Once the water starts coming through, it’s only going to get worse.
The Stars
Eovaldi’s been a playoff hero before, including within this postseason. Will he show up again tonight? Will Garcia have a moment? Or is this going to be all about the bats?
