Off day yesterday, Royals swept a doubleheader, let’s look at the draft order.
As it stands:
5. Washington (61-89)
6. Miami (64-86)
7. Minnesota (65-85)
8. Cubs (67-83)
9. Kansas City (69-82)
10. Colorado (70-79)
11. Mets (Kumar Rocker compensation)
12. Anaheim (72-78)
That puts the Cubs a game and a half “ahead” of the Royals, and two games “behind” the Twins entering this set.
The same thing, but going off of FanGraphs’s projected end-of-year records:
5. Washington (66.2-95.8)
6. Miami (69.0-83.0)
7. Minnesota (70.9-91.1)
8. Cubs (72.6-89.4)
9. Kansas City (74.7-87.3)
10. Colorado (75.2-86.8)
11. Mets
12. Detroit (77.6-84.4)
We stopped looking at this so much once we realized how likely it is to be unimportant, but there’s certainly some value to be had from picking higher in the draft, and picking eighth is sizably better than picking, say, twelfth.
As you can see, it’s likelier and likelier that the Cubs will end up in that eighth slot, but there’s plenty of time to wiggle, especially given just how many teams are packed in together here. Strong performances from players who will or might contribute next year—Willson Contreras, Kyle Hendricks, Ian Happ, Frank Schwindel, Patrick Wisdom, Alec Mills, Nico Hoerner, the bullpen, etc.—are still more efficient at improving the Cubs’ future outlook, but drafting high isn’t a bad thing in and of itself, and this is where that all stands.
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The Diaspora:
Jon Lester got his 200th win, beating Freddy Peralta in a is-this-still-2021? moment. Lester struck out two, walked none, and allowed two solo home runs over six innings of work. Great moment for the big man.
Craig Kimbrel took the loss for the White Sox, hitting a batter and allowing a run-scoring single in the eighth inning of a tied game in Detroit.
Around the Division:
With the win over the Brewers, the Cardinals picked up half a game on the idle Padres, a full game on the lost-to-the-Orioles Phillies, and nothing on the beat-the-Pirates Reds. St. Louis has now won nine straight, is three up on the Reds, and is fifteen and a half back of the Dodgers for the first Wild Card spot.
In other Cardinals news, they DFA’d Daniel Ponce de Leon.
The result kept the Brewers’ magic number at three, putting the ETA at Thursday at 4:05 PM for the division’s official clinching, though wins today and tomorrow are more likely for Milwaukee than a win Thursday. Ok, getting too deep into probability. Moving on.
Up Next:
Two with the Twins.
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Whom:
Cubs vs. Minnesota
When:
6:40 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Wrigley Field
Weather:
Cooler, with temperatures in the 60’s and rain possibly on its way in. The wind is expected to blow in from left at about fifteen miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Alec Mills vs. Griffin Jax
The Opponent:
Something of a non-prospect, Jax has been thrust into the Twins’ rotation due to attrition, and it hasn’t gone great. Over 69 innings, he’s got a 5.72 xERA and a 6.35 FIP, good for -0.5 fWAR. He’s allowed at least one home run in all but one of his eleven starts, and he allowed at least one in three of his four relief appearances. The wind’s blowing in tonight, so it could be a semi-historic evening for the righty, but yeah, it’s been a bad time.
It’s a bad time as well for the Twins as a whole, with Mitch Garver currently out on a rehab assignment, Andrelton Simmons having missed a series in Toronto due to immigration issues, and guys like Kenta Maeda, Taylor Rogers, Devin Smeltzer, and Randy Dobnak all done for the year. Come commiserate with us, friends.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are -120 favorites, with their guests at +100 for an implied win probability of about 52%. The over/under’s at eight and leans towards the under.
Cubs News:
I haven’t seen anything major.
Cubs Thoughts:
A good start for Alec Mills probably looks like this: Five or six innings, four or five strikeouts, one walk, zero home runs. That’s the goal tonight for him.
It’s something of a contact hitter’s night, given the weather, so hopefully we can get something good out of Nico Hoerner, whose xwOBA is only .311.
On the more powerful side, Patrick Wisdom and Frank Schwindel are closing in on Kris Bryant for the Cubs’ 2021 fWAR crown. Bryant sits at 2.6 while with the team. Wisdom’s at 2.3. Schwindel’s at 2.2. After a few more departed Cubs (Craig Kimbrel, Javy Báez) it’s Willson Contreras at 1.8. Then, you get to Mills. Anyway, something small to keep an eye on. Bryant is still mathematically the Cubs’ MVP.
In a similar vein, guess who the Cubs’ plate appearance leader is?
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.
.
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Ian Happ. Followed by Contreras, followed by Anthony Rizzo. In relief appearances, it goes Rex Brothers, Dan Winkler, then the three who got traded. In innings pitched, it’s more expected: Hendricks, Zach Davies, Adbert Alzolay, Alec Mills, Jake Arrieta. Just another reminder of how discontinuous this roster was.
