Iowa lost to Purdue. Of less surprise but perhaps equal ultimate importance, Arizona State lost to Utah. We lost two of our “factors” in the playoff race.
Let’s start by taking inventory.
As we’re starting to talk about rather regularly, over our seven years of data, the 28 playoff teams have come from the following buckets:
- Undefeated Power Five/Notre Dame team (11 out of 11 possible teams)
- One-loss Power Five conference champion (14 out of 15 possible teams)
- One-loss Power Five not conference champion (3 out of 11* possible teams) [*2014 Baylor and 2014 TCU included in this bucket and not as conference champions because committee deemed them not conference champions]
Clearly, it’s hard to miss the playoff if you win a Power Five league and lose one time or fewer. It’s impossible to miss the playoff if you’re an undefeated Power Five team, with Power Five including Notre Dame. It’s possible to make the playoff with one loss if you don’t win your Power Five conference, but it depends on a lot of things. Here are the teams who still have even just a technical chance at each bucket:
Undefeated Power Five/Notre Dame team:
- Georgia
- Oklahoma
- Oklahoma State
- Michigan
- Michigan State
- Wake Forest
Here are the teams with still-viable paths to the next bucket:
One-loss Power Five conference champion:
- Georgia
- Oklahoma
- Oklahoma State
- Michigan
- Michigan State
- Wake Forest
- Kentucky
- Iowa
- Alabama
- Ohio State
- Oregon
- Penn State
- Mississippi
- Baylor
- North Carolina State
- Pittsburgh
And here’s who, I’m fairly sure, could finish as a one-loss Power Five team, but not a conference champion:
- Georgia
- Oklahoma
- Oklahoma State
- Michigan
- Michigan State
- Wake Forest
- Kentucky
- Mississippi
- Baylor
- Notre Dame
That’s seventeen teams left with a “traditional” playoff path—the sixteen from the second bucket, plus Notre Dame. What happens if we don’t get four from those buckets? What happens if we do, but enough of them are underwhelming (say a one-loss Wake Forest wins the ACC but gets bludgeoned by Army along the way) that the committee turns elsewhere? One would imagine these are the next three buckets, in unknown and probably mixed order:
Two-loss Power Five conference champion:
There are a number of teams with a path here, but the big one to note is probably Clemson, which still has the talent, has as many as seven games left, lost one of its games to the best team in the country and the other in two overtimes on the road to a currently-ranked team, and, again, has the talent. Clemson’s lurking. Clemson might not be dead.
Two-loss SEC/Big Ten not conference champion:
It’s hard to imagine a two-loss team that doesn’t win its league making it from anywhere but the SEC or Big Ten, so while this bucket’s border is a little aggressive, it’s probably realistic. Alabama’s the big one here, in the scenario in which Texas A&M wins out and Bama’s only other loss comes to Georgia. A&M fans would be livid, of course, and with some reason, but that’s why you don’t lose to Mississippi State at home. Another possibility here would be Ohio State, who still has to host Penn State and travel to Michigan, with other very real threats along the way.
Undefeated Group of Five team:
Cincinnati, SMU, Coastal Carolina, San Diego State, and UTSA are the only teams with a path to achieving this status, with Cincinnati the only one with an imaginable path to actually getting a playoff bid. Their path probably looks like the following:
- Go undefeated
- Get only three teams from those first three buckets (which means there are only three teams with one loss or fewer in the whole Group of Five), except the fourth is…
- …Notre Dame, which has a viable path to get to 11-1, with a remaining schedule of USC (H), UNC (H), Navy (H), Virginia (A), Georgia Tech (H), Stanford (A)
If this path materializes, maybe a two-loss Alabama gets in ahead of Cincy, but a two-loss Iowa? A two-loss Oregon? I don’t know. Maybe I’m wrong here. We’d find out, I guess.
Overall, then, using our “contenders” and “factors” dichotomy (contenders = teams it’s reasonable to think will make the playoff, factors = teams it’s reasonable to think could make the playoff), I’d say we line up as follows:
Contenders: Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Alabama
Two of these guys have losses! One would have to play Georgia in Atlanta! But, yes. These are our contenders.
Factors: Oregon, Cincinnati, Michigan
Michigan’s got a lot of schedule ahead of it. Oregon doesn’t, but it’s also not a great team. Cincinnati doesn’t either, but it’s got the weight of a few instances of demonstrated eye rolls towards the AAC from the committee, with last year’s rankings seeming to move the goalposts on Group of Five teams as a whole.
We’ll keep watching those other ten teams from above, but for the moment, it’s hard to see any individual one of those mounting a one-loss campaign. Even including Oregon here might be stretching it, but dropping them would require a lot of questioning of ourselves.
Let’s go around the country:
Big Ten
Purdue took down Iowa, and did it cleanly, snatching four interceptions and one not-empty beer used as a projectile by the crowd as Iowa’s offensive impotence finally caught up to it. Purdue protected the ball expertly, which is what you have to do, and also managed to pick apart Iowa through the air, amassing 8.8 yards per attempts on a whopping 43 throws. Impressive by Purdue. Clarifying on Iowa. They are who we suspected, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they were underdogs at Wisconsin in two weeks in a game that could end up being the Big Ten West championship.
That’s right, Wisconsin: You’re back in familiar territory. There technically has to be a best team in the West, and there’s a non-zero chance it’s you. Thank goodness you held off Army last night.
Elsewhere in the league, Michigan State beat Indiana on the road by five while Minnesota took down Nebraska in Minneapolis in a game the Huskers might have needed for bowl eligibility. Nebraska had played encouragingly of late, but that…I think we’re at the point where if Scott Frost were fired on any given day, it wouldn’t be a surprise.
Ohio State returns next week, visiting Indiana. Michigan returns as well, hosting Northwestern.
Pac-12
Arizona State, we hardly knew ye.
The Sun Devils went to Salt Lake City and gave up 28 unanswered second half points to lose by two touchdowns. Brutal, and much like Wisconsin, Utah now seizes control of a bad division. You want a Group of Five playoff path? Utah lost to San Diego State, but has a path to going 11-2 and winning the Pac-12. If that happens and SDSU’s undefeated, and there’s a spot to be had? I don’t think so, but it could put the committee in a fun position (fun for us, not them).
Oregon, as we mentioned yesterday, survived Cal on Friday night to stay alive and very hard to understand. Maybe Ohio State’s just worse than we realize?
UCLA beat Washington in Seattle to stay alive in the title race and push the Huskies back under the water. The Bruins host the Ducks next weekend, looking to finish off their own conference for yet another year.
SEC
What the hell, Knoxville?
You know those moments where everyone’s joking around and then someone massively crosses the line? That was Tennessee fans last night. Being mad about a close call? (Which was the right call, right?) Normal. Throwing all those things? All those many things? Not normal.
Anyway, happy for Lane Kiffin, who now has Mississippi 5-1 with a manageable path left. If we get Iron Bowl chaos and Mississippi makes the SEC Championship…but that’s getting out over our skis.
LSU beat Florida, and as with Ohio State, starting to wonder if Alabama just isn’t that good. Auburn beat Arkansas, and did it handily in Fayetteville. Georgia whooped Kentucky, as expected. Texas A&M whooped Mizzou, answering a question of ours. Alabama smoked Mississippi State. Lot of time for a lot of teams to get a lot of things together. No great games next week in this league (*fate laughs*), but Georgia’s off and Alabama hosts Tennessee.
Big 12
Oklahoma State roared back to beat Texas. Baylor took care of BYU at home. Oklahoma took care of TCU at home, albeit with some rough defense. Iowa State won Farmageddon, and the race for second place is still clarifying in this league but it feels like we’ve at least sorted out that Oklahoma State, Baylor, Iowa State, and Texas are the pack, though it should be noted that Oklahoma State does host Bedlam this year.
The Pokes go to Ames next weekend. Texas and Baylor are off. Oklahoma visits Kansas.
ACC
In the ACC’s biggest game of the weekend…NC State beat up on Boston College in Chestnut Hill. 33-7. The Wolfpack are in control in the Atlantic, though perhaps only temporarily. They get Miami next week down in Florida.
Pitt beat Virginia Tech soundly, and could theoretically be on its way to the most Pitt season in history: 12-1 with no ranked wins and a home loss to Western Michigan. God bless Pitt.
Clemson, as we mentioned, escaped the Carrier Dome with a win on Friday. Their offense is horrible, but it might not matter. They go to Pitt next weekend while Wake Forest visits Army. The Pac-12 and these guys owe each other gift baskets.
Cincinnati
The Bearcats had no problem with UCF, racing out to a 35-0 first-half lead in a game that ended 56-21. They visit Navy next weekend, and if they win that, they’ll have a close eye later in the day on Notre Dame’s visit from USC in South Bend.
Other Group of Five Undefeateds
SMU was idle this weekend, but returns Thursday night to host Tulane. Coastal Carolina was also off—they visit Appalachian State in a big one on Wednesday. San Diego State survived a two-overtime minefield in San José Friday night. They visit Air Force on Saturday. UTSA smoked Rice in the Alamodome. They’ll visit Louisiana Tech on Saturday.
FCS
South Dakota beat Northern Iowa on the road, giving the Coyotes a big bubble boost while putting the Panthers on their heels at 3-3 heading into a trip to South Dakota State. Would assume UNI needs to get to 7-4, but which is doable but hard, but I don’t know the landscape.
Montana lost at home to Sacramento State, their second conference loss of the year and a big win for the Hornets. Montana State and Eastern Washington are the leaders in the Big Sky, with Weber State already at four losses after dropping one at home to the Bobcats. They have to go to Cheney next week, which should leave them hoping on what I believe is a rare 6-5 bid.
Jackson State keeps marching through the SWAC, with Alabama State their latest victim.
***
Next week’s another rather quiet one, with those mid-week Group of Five games grabbing some attention before a weekend where the theme seems to be suspect undefeated or one-loss Power Five teams facing tests. Wake Forest visits Army. Oregon visits UCLA. Oklahoma State visits Iowa State. NC State visits Miami. I don’t know where College Gameday’s going, but maybe that SDSU/Air Force game? Air Force is 6-1. Undefeated Harvard/Princeton matchup, too, but that feels pretty darn unlikely. Wonder if any good D-II or D-III games are going on.
