Apologies to the White Sox, but we’re probably going to have to spend a lot of time on that Red Sox/Rays game here.
What Happened
Boston 6, Tampa Bay 4 (13 innings)
The rule states that if a player accidentally bumps a ball over the wall after it’s hit the ground or the wall (or both), it’s a double, and any runners on base advance two bases. It makes sense. It’s also very unfortunate for the Rays.
If you missed it yesterday, the Rays had a man on first with two outs in the top of the thirteenth, trying to crack through against Nick Pivetta, who was in the fourth inning of a stunningly dominant relief outing that may have saved the Red Sox’ season. Yandy Díaz was on first. Kevin Kiermaier hit one to the gap. Hunter Renfroe couldn’t handle it, accidentally bonking it over the wall into the bullpen.
The Rays did not score.
It would have been a triple, most likely, and even if it wasn’t a triple, Díaz was scoring from first. In reality, though, he didn’t, and in the bottom of the inning, Christian Vázquez took Luis Patiño over the monster to end a game that was everything you want playoff baseball to be. There were unexpected heroes. There were dramatic shifts in the game’s course. There was a war of attrition, one that required Pivetta to stand in the breach and hold back the tide. He held. The Red Sox caught a break. Vázquez ended it.
Chicago (AL) 12, Houston 6
In Chicago, Tony La Russa either learned from his Game 2 mistake or finally found his line, pulling Dylan Cease in the second inning trailing 3-1 with runners on first and second. His replacement, Michael Kopech, didn’t fare much better, but the Sox roared back in the bottom of the third to grab a 6-5 lead, and though La Russa gave Kopech a longer leash than was perhaps wise, the Sox took the lead for good in the bottom of the fourth, turning a 6-6 tie into a 9-6 ballgame that would end with the White Sox flipping the pressure to the Astros’ side of the field.
The Heroes
Win Probability Added leaders, from FanGraphs:
- Pivetta: 0.61 (unreal)
- David Robertson: 0.30 (held the Red Sox at bay in the tenth and eleventh)
- Kyle Tucker: 0.28 (doubled in the first, homered in the third)
- Leury García: 0.27 (third-inning three-run home run to make it 6-5 in Chicago, also doubled)
- Yasmani Grandal: 0.23 (third-inning two-run home run to make it 5-3 Houston)
- Garrett Whitlock: 0.23 (got the Red Sox through the end of the eighth and top of the ninth)
- Vázquez: 0.23 (the Red Sox were already in business thanks to a Renfroe walk)
- Austin Meadows: 0.23 (first-inning two-run homer)
- JT Chargois: 0.22 (got the Rays through the end of the eighth and bottom of the ninth)
- Kyle Schwarber: 0.20 (first-inning home run got it back to 2-1 Rays)
What It Means
The Astros have to wait a bit longer to clinch an ALCS appearance, and that becomes even longer with today’s game already rained out. I don’t know how big a question the pressure thing is with them, but it’s something of a question.
With the Astros losing, the Dodgers become the World Series favorites again at FanGraphs, checking in at 23.4% likely. The Astros are still AL favorites on the site, but they’re only narrowly ahead of Boston.
The Rays are now facing elimination. Tonight.
Other Notes
- Brandon Lowe’s struggles continued. 0-for-6 with three K’s.
- Wander Franco had two hits, including a home run off Hansel Robles in the eighth that led to the Randy Arozarena double that tied the game.
- Manuel Margot came off the bag on a steal in the tenth, ending what would have been a two-out situation with a runner in scoring position.
- Kyle Schwarber made a bad error at first base early, but got through it and held the line until they brought Bobby Dalbec in for him in extras.
- Kike Hernández had three more hits, including another home run.
- Robertson threw 40 pitches for the Rays and will likely be unavailable today. Patiño seemed the most likely Game 4 starter, but will not be starting tonight.
- Pivetta threw 67 pitches on two days of rest after throwing 73 pitches in Game 1.
- Zack Greinke made a relief appearance for the Astros, getting out of the fourth after Yimi García couldn’t get an out.
- Ryan Tepera and Aaron Bummer combined to get eleven outs, striking out seven batters without allowing a baserunner.
***
Now, today, in chronological order. Atlanta’s up first:
The Basics
Where: Truist Park
When: 1:07 PM EDT
Broadcast: TBS
Starting Pitchers: Ian Anderson (ATL); Freddy Peralta (MIL)
Odds: ATL -115; MIL +105; o/u 8 (o -120) [English translation: Atlanta’s about 52% likely to win; Milwaukee’s about 48% likely to win; the expected number of runs scored is something like 8.24]
The Details
It’s a really good game on paper. Peralta, just 25, strikes out batters at an outrageous clip and has lowered his walks just enough to become a dominant starter, finishing the regular season with a 3.12 FIP, 2.72 xERA, and 4.0 fWAR. Anderson, just 23, hasn’t enjoyed the success of his six 2020 starts, but he’s been fine this year (4.12 FIP, 4.30 xERA) and was strong in four postseason starts last year, struggling with walks against the Dodgers but still allowing just two runs over more than eighteen innings of October work.
The bullpens are fresh. The starters are good. The lineups are flawed. It’s about as even a match as you could hope for.
The Stars
It starts at the top of the order for the home team: Jorge Soler. Freddie Freeman. Ozzie Albies. Austin Riley. For the visitors, it’s all about Peralta and the bullpen. Just trying to keep it all within arm’s reach at all times.
***
Astros/White Sox has been rained out, so…Boston:
The Basics
Where: Fenway Park
When: 7:07 PM EDT
Broadcast: FS1
Starting Pitchers: Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS); Collin McHugh (TB)
Odds: BOS -108; TB -102; o/u 9½ (u -120) [English translation: The Red Sox are roughly 51% likely to win; the Rays are likely 49% likely to win; the expected number of runs scored is something like 9.26]
The Details
Questions of fatigue all over the place as the Rays go to a bullpen game and the Red Sox turn to their Game 1 starter, who left that game in the second inning. Can the Rays bounce back from an emotionally draining loss last night? Can the Red Sox keep their foot on the gas and close this out at home? It’s an unconventional Marathon Monday, and there’s a ball-don’t-lie element in the air where the Red Sox might have gotten away with it last night.
The only reasonable expectation is probably chaos.
The Stars
Can Kike Hernández keep it up? Can Kyle Schwarber navigate first base? Do the Red Sox have a bullpen that can get them through this or will it be one of those days where the real star is the Rays as an organization? Wander Franco’s been consistently producing. Randy Arozarena keeps making noise. Kevin Kiermaier was almost the hero of heroes last night. Whole team efforts, either way.
***
And finally, Giants/Dodgers resumes in Los Angeles:
The Basics
Where: Dodger Stadium
When: 9:37 PM EDT
Broadcast: TBS
Starting Pitchers: Max Scherzer (LA); Alex Wood (SF)
Odds: LA -200; SF +180; o/u 7½ (u -120) [English translation: The Dodgers are roughly 65% likely to win; the Giants are roughly 35% likely to win; the expected number of runs scored is something like 7.26]
The Details
Former Dodger Alex Wood had a good year, turning in a 3.48 FIP and 3.87 xERA over 26 starts and not missing a beat after missing a few weeks in early September. He’ll have his hands full with the Los Angeles lineup, and the expectation is there’ll be little room for error with Scherzer opposite him.
The Stars
The Giants need someone in the lineup to come through, whether it’s Buster Posey again, Kris Bryant, or a lesser name. The Dodgers need Scherzer to pitch like Scherzer, and not like the Scherzer who’s had some mild struggles his last three times out.
Another day takes off. We don’t know where it’ll land, but in terms of the ultimate picture, with at least two more teams on the brink and one possibly eliminated, it’ll be a long way from here.
