The final weekend of baseball’s regular season is upon us, and whether it’s due to the shortened season, the expanded playoffs, or college football’s late start, it feels too early. Still, it’s here, and here are the undecided races, with FanGraphs’ probabilities of who will win each (we’ve excluded races where only seeding is contested):
American League Central Champion
Minnesota Twins (66.9%), 0.0 games back
Chicago White Sox (29.1%), 1.0 game back
Cleveland Indians (4.0%), 2.0 games back
Heading into the week, it looked like the Sox had this wrapped up. Then, they went to Cleveland. Four losses later, the Twins have moved into control.
The White Sox do hold the tiebreaker over Minnesota should it come down to a two-way tie, but if it’s a three-way tie, Minnesota has the edge. Cleveland has the tiebreaker over the White Sox if those two are tied, but Minnesota has the individual tiebreaker over Cleveland.
In short, the Twins need to win the same number or more than the Sox this weekend, and not allow Cleveland to gain more than a game. The Sox need to keep Cleveland behind them and make up a game on the Twins. Cleveland needs to outright pass the Twins, meaning they need a sweep while the Twins get swept.
How likely are these scenarios? Well, the percentages are right there. The Twins host the Reds, who are fighting for a playoff spot themselves and will likely continue to be doing so through the weekend. The White Sox host the Cubs, who could wrap up the NL Central as early as today. Cleveland hosts the Pirates.
American League Central 2nd Place
Cleveland Indians (38.4%), 1.0 game back
Chicago White Sox (32.5%), 0.0 games back
Minnesota Twins (29.1%), 1.0 game ahead
These probabilities taken alone are a bit misleading—Cleveland’s less likely to catch the Sox than they are to stay behind them. But they’re certainly not locked into the seven-seed in the AL (though they might want to be…the AL Central’s runner up has to deal with Gerrit Cole and the Yankees in the Wild Card Series).
American League West 2nd Place
Houston Astros (99.7%), 0.0 games back
Anaheim Angels (0.3%), 3.0 games back
There is exactly one scenario in which the Angels pass the Astros and make the playoffs, and that is the one in which the Angels sweep the Dodgers and the Rangers sweep the Astros. It’s unlikely, but it’s technically possible. Three-in-a-thousand possible.
National League Central Champion
Chicago Cubs (91.1%), 0.0 games back
St. Louis Cardinals (8.7%), 2.5 games back
Cincinnati Reds (0.1%), 3.0 games back
Could the Cubs collapse again? Technically, yes. Practically, it’s unlikely. One-in-eleven unlikely. Though the Cardinals would probably win the tiebreaker in a scenario in which they were tied (this may be locked up—it’s still rather complex, though, and we aren’t taking the time to determine this with certainty unless things get closer), the Cardinals also have four games remaining against the playoff-possible Brewers, plus a potential doubleheader Monday in Detroit that will be played only if the games would decide a playoff berth or the division championship (not if they would decide seeding within the playoffs). While the Cardinals would be heavy favorites in each game Monday, that’s still two games, and more pressingly, the remainder of their series with the Brewers is going to be difficult to win. The Cubs really just need to win one and see the Cardinals lose two, which is coincidentally the most likely specific outcome of these next three days.
National League Central 2nd Place
St. Louis Cardinals (60.7%), 0.0 games back
Cincinnati Reds (22.5%), 0.5 games back
Chicago Cubs (8.8%), 2.5 games ahead
Milwaukee Brewers (8.0%), 2.0 games back
The Brewers missed a big opportunity to tie themselves to the Cardinals yesterday. If they do tie things up with St. Louis, they’d have the tiebreaker, but the Cardinals would likely be ahead in win percentage if this was purely a seeding consideration. In a three-way tie, it appears likely if not certain that the Cardinals would have the tiebreaker over the other two. In a Cardinals/Reds tie, the Cardinals hold the advantage.
National League East 2nd Place
Miami Marlins (84.9%), 0.0 games back
Philadelphia Phillies (14.3%), 1.0 game back
New York Mets (0.8%), 3.0 games back
The Marlins hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Phillies, and also the tiebreaker if this turns into a three-way tie. Should the Phillies fall off and the Mets sweep while the Marlins get swept, though, the Mets would win the tiebreaker with Miami.
The Marlins are playing the Yankees in the Bronx, but the Yankees are only playing for the possibility of being the nominal home team in the Wild Card Series—their only incentive is batting second for the first two or three playoff games, and they might be locked into their position within a day or two. The Phillies are playing the Rays in St. Petersburg, but the Rays, similarly, are only playing for seeding, and as with the Yankees may be locked into a specific seed in just 24 or 48 hours. The Mets are playing the eliminated Washington Nationals in Washington.
National League Wild Cards (two playoff spots)
Cincinnati Reds (65.2%), 0.5 games ahead of final spot
San Francisco Giants (47.1%), 0.0 games back of final spot
Philadelphia Phillies (36.3%), 0.5 games back
Milwaukee Brewers (25.9%), 1.0 game back
St. Louis Cardinals (17.8%), 1.0 game ahead
Miami Marlins (6.0%), 0.5 games ahead
New York Mets (1.3%), 2.5 games back
Colorado Rockies (0.4%), 3.0 games back
Chicago Cubs (0.1%), 3.0 games ahead
This is especially messy, with six teams within a game of one another, so let’s first add that the Giants play a four-game set with the Padres and the Rockies play a four-game set with the Diamondbacks, with the doubleheaders in each series happening today. For what it’s worth, the Rockies hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Giants.
Because head-to-head tiebreakers won’t be applicable in games across divisions, here’s where each team’s intradivision record stacks up entering games today:
St. Louis 20-16
Chicago 22-18
Cincinnati 21-19
Miami 21-19
Philadelphia 21-19
San Francisco 17-19
Milwaukee 17-19
New York 17-20
Colorado 16-20
And finally, because this is all else we can really give you at this point, here’s the overall playoff probability for each NL team beyond the four (Los Angeles, Atlanta, Chicago, San Diego) who’ve already locked up a spot:
Miami 90.9%
Cincinnati 87.9%
St. Louis 87.2%
Philadelphia 50.6%
San Francisco 47.1%
Milwaukee 33.9%
New York 2.0%
Colorado 0.4%
At its simplest level, Miami, Cincinnati, and St. Louis just need to avoid a collapse, while Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Milwaukee fight it out for the final playoff spot.
Enjoy.
