It was, as promised, a busy baseball weekend.
We didn’t know what that would mean off the field.
At the moment, I don’t personally have a great idea of what’s going on with Wander Franco. He’s been accused of grooming a 14-year-old girl, an allegation that appears to be sourced from a vague Instagram story. Major League Baseball is looking into the matter, and Franco reportedly did not travel yesterday to San Francisco, where the Rays begin a series tonight with the Giants. It is a hazy situation right now. So, we’re going to talk about the baseball on the field.
The Stars
Cedric Mullins did the Mariners dirty out in Seattle yesterday, pulling what would have been the game-tying home run back off the bat of Ty France in the bottom of the ninth, and then, when the Mariners tied it anyway, homering in the top of the tenth to give the Orioles a 5–3 win. Making matters worse for Seattle, George Kirby threw nine innings of shutout baseball the night before only to see his team fall 1–0 in the tenth inning, with Félix Bautista finishing off a lights-out combined performance from six Baltimore pitchers which began with Cole Irvin surprising in his return to the rotation. Irvin struck out six and walked one over five innings of work.
The Giants almost got a complete game shutout out of Logan Webb yesterday, but when J.P. Martinez doubled with two outs in the ninth, Gabe Kapler turned to Camilo Doval, who allowed an infield single to Ezequiel Duran which scored Martinez, who was running on the play. The game then tied, 1–1, the Giants were next to get their backs against the wall. After the Rangers scored in the top of the tenth, Will Smith recorded two outs before Patrick Bailey hit a walk-off two-run shot into the left-field corner, saving San Francisco from a Rangers sweep.
Sandy Alcantara went all nine for the Marlins on Saturday, holding the Yankees to just one run in a 3–1 Miami victory. Yesterday, the Yankees had an easier time scoring, bringing a 7–2 lead into the eighth and a 7–3 lead into the ninth. After two hits, an out, a walk, and a Clay Holmes error, though, Luis Arraez cleared the bases with a triple to tie the game, and Jake Burger went on to single him home. A brutal collapse for the Yankees, but a magnificent series win for the Marlins, who maintained their playoff position from Friday morning.
The Nationals won’t gain much of standings consequence from this, but they pulled off quite the comeback of their own against the A’s yesterday, erasing what had been a 7–2 ninth-inning deficit. Jeter Downs had the walkoff single there after Zach Gelof homered twice for Oakland.
In the other big performances of the weekend, Matt Olson clubbed three home runs in four games for Atlanta while Andrés Giménez went 8-for-14 for the Guardians with a walk, a double, and a home run down in Tampa Bay, capping it off with a 4-for-4 day yesterday which included a stolen base. Not a bad way to wait out your buddy’s suspension.
The Series
At the top of the NL, Atlanta won three of the four against the Mets while the Dodgers swept the Rockies in three. Further down…
- The Phillies dropped two of three against the Twins.
- The Giants lost two of three to the Rangers.
- The Brewers swept the White Sox in three.
- The Marlins took two of three from the Yankees.
- The Cubs won two of three in Toronto.
- The Reds won two of three against the Pirates, coming back to win the finale in extras yesterday in the second half of a doubleheader.
- The Diamondbacks broke their losing streak after nine straight, winning Saturday and yesterday to take their series from the Padres.
From the AL perspective:
- The Orioles won two of three against the Mariners.
- The Rays took two of three from the Guardians.
- The Rangers won their three-game series in San Francisco.
- The Astros won two of three against the Angels.
- The Twins took two of three in Philadelphia.
- The Blue Jays lost their series to the Cubs.
- The Red Sox took two of three from the Tigers.
- The Yankees lost their series to the Marlins.
The Situation
Where does all of this leave us?
In division races:
- The Brewers gained a game on the Cubs and Reds.
- The Twins picked up a game on the Guardians.
In the Wild Card pictures:
- The Phillies, Giants, and Padres lost a game on the Marlins, Cubs, Reds, and Diamondbacks.
- The Blue Jays, Mariners, Yankees, and Angels lost a game on the Rays, Astros, and Red Sox.
Overall, not a lot of change. Here’s how we see each league’s playoff picture, plus what everybody’s up to over the front half of this week.
American League
- Division Favorites (>85%): Minnesota
- Playoff-Likely (>85%): Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Texas, Houston
- Competing: Toronto, Seattle, Boston, New York (AL), Anaheim, Cleveland
The top four in the AL remain separated from the pack. Of those four, the Rangers probably have the easiest matchup these next three days. They’ll host the Angels while the Orioles swing down to San Diego, the Rays fly out to San Francisco, and the Astros go to Miami.
In the Central race, the Twins are now ahead by four and a half games, and that lead stands a good chance of holding still until the weekend. Minnesota hosts Detroit for two on Tuesday and Wednesday while the Guardians visit the Reds for a pair.
In the Wild Card push, the Blue Jays hold a leg up, with roughly twice the chance of the Mariners to, per FanGraphs, make the playoff field (66.5% vs. 33.7%). The Red Sox then check in at about half of the Mariners’ probability (16.3%), followed by the Yankees (5.8%) and Angels (1.5%). That’s also the order of the standings, with the key number being that the Jays lead the Mariners by a game and a half and the Red Sox by three games.
The Mariners and Blue Jays are even in the loss column, meaning Seattle’s played three fewer games so far than Toronto. They’ll make two of those up this week, going to Kansas City for an advantageous four-game set while the Jays host the Phillies for a pair. The Red Sox play three in Washington beginning tomorrow, while the Yankees visit Atlanta for three games and the Angels, as mentioned above, visit Texas.
With the Angels below .500 and Mike Trout still only hitting off a pitching machine, they’re the next team up on the chopping block. They’ve got a better record than Cleveland by two games but they’re chasing a very different division situation, sitting in fourth place, 11.5 games back, rather than second place, 4.5 games back. It might not happen this week, but that’s where the attrition is happening on the bottom end. Things don’t look good in the Bronx either, though, and the Guards are struggling themselves, now down below ten percent in FanGraphs playoff probability.
National League
- In (>99%): Atlanta, Los Angeles
- Competing: Milwaukee, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Miami, Chicago (NL), Cincinnati, Arizona, San Diego
There were some big developments in the NL race. First, the Brewers climbed two games up the ladder against the Phillies and Giants, which could prove consequential if the Cubs or Reds catch that pack. Second, the Reds and Diamondbacks each showed some life after brutal respective stretches. Their situations still aren’t great—they’re each about 1-in-5 likely to make the field, per FanGraphs—but they’re alive. Lastly, the Padres dropped two at a bad time. San Diego is still so good on paper, but they’re just as close to the Mets and Pirates in the standings as they are to the Diamondbacks, and the Diamondbacks are sitting in ninth place in the National League.
The opportunities are there this week for the Cubs and Reds. While the Reds host those two against the Guardians, the Cubs will be hosting the White Sox for a pair. Milwaukee? They’ve got a three-game series in Los Angeles which begins tomorrow. The Dodgers have won eight straight, pulling within four games of Atlanta at the top of the league (the Braves host the Yankees for those three games).
In the East, the Phillies visit Toronto for that pair while the Marlins host Houston for three. It’s a big opportunity for the Marlins, because while they sit half a game up on the Cubs and Reds for the final playoff spot, they’re less than 50/50 likely, per FanGraphs, to make that cut, and FanGraphs presumably sees the Astros as one of their tougher opponents the rest of the way.
Out West, the Giants are hosting the scandaled Rays for three while the Diamondbacks visit Colorado for a trio and the Padres host the Orioles. That reads as a good situation for the Diamondbacks on paper, except that they’re still chasing the Cubs and Reds before they even get to the current playoff field.
The Padres are good enough on paper that it would take a lot right now to really put them away. The Diamondbacks are in a riskier situation, visiting a bad team in the Rockies. Playing a bad team on the road is great for the standings, where you can gain a lot of ground fast, but bad in playoff probability, where the expectation is that you’ll perform well but that expectation still has you only making the playoffs in one of every five simulations.
The Best Games
Some starting pitching matchups which jump off the page:
- Tonight’s best might be Max Fried against Clarke Schmidt, with the latter having bounced back from a rough start to become a solid contributor to this Yankees staff. Brady Singer’s also been better lately—he’ll go against Logan Gilbert—and Patrick Sandoval and Braxton Garrett aren’t bad, opposing Max Scherzer and Framber Valdez, respectively. The Giants are sending their bullpen out there against Tyler Glasnow, but it’s been a heck of a bullpen in these games.
- Tomorrow, two trade deadline characters square off in the form of Lucas Giolito and Jordan Montgomery while Jack Flaherty faces Michael Wacha. Elsewhere, Nick Pivetta is matched up with Josiah Gray and Zack Wheeler is lined up to face Yusei Kikuchi.
- On Wednesday, Reese Olson faces Kenta Maeda in one that’s interesting, but the main events are great: Justin Verlander vs. Jesus Luzardo. Aaron Nola vs. Kevin Gausman. James Paxton vs. MacKenzie Gore. And that’s before we get to the Brewers/Dodgers series, which gets its own bullet point.
- The Brewers and Dodgers don’t have the two best rotations in the league on paper, but they’re up there for the deepest. Even with the Brewers trotting out their fourth and fifth starters, we’ve got Adrian Houser vs. Bobby Miller tomorrow, Wade Miley vs. Clayton Kershaw on Wednesday, and Corbin Burnes vs. Lance Lynn on Thursday. That’s a fun list.
Who’s Hot
Over last week, Jose Altuve (.520 average), Matt Olson (.538 OBP plus four home runs), and Trea Turner (.481 average) were the best position players in baseball. On the month, it’s Olson (.500 OBP, seven home runs), Freddie Freeman (.423 average, seemingly fine after taking that pitch to the kneecap on Saturday), Altuve (.500 OBP), Cody Bellinger (.422 average), and Franco (4 HR, 1 very bad allegation). Since the All-Star Break, it’s Freeman (.400 average, .485 OBP), Bellinger (nine home runs, .387 average), and Ha-seong Kim (.460 OBP, eleven stolen bases).
On the mound since the All-Star Break, Devin Williams is tied for third in fWAR despite only pitching out of the bullpen. He hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last sixteen outings, and he’s only allowed a baserunner in five of those. The last time it didn’t go well for him? July 5th, when the Cubs rallied and Mike Tauchman doubled to tie it and Brian Anderson made a bad throw against Nico Hoerner’s speed to give the Cubs a lead. The win invigorated the Cubs on the heels of another dramatic win the day prior and a tough loss that Monday, with Chicago going on to go 13–8 over the rest of the month, playing themselves into the playoff race and…
Sorry. Got carried away.
Also pitching well since the break is Kikuchi, who’s allowed no earned runs or one earned run in each of his last five starts, keeping the ball in the park and keeping his walks below his strikeouts each time out. Over his last three outings, he’s gone a combined 19 innings, striking out 17 and walking just four. After four seasons of collective disappointment and a late-spring swoon, the Blue Jays hurler might finally be putting it together in a consistent way.
