Shooting for .500 on the MLB season.
More Head Coach Scores, Tournament Over Ratings, and Conference Under-ratings
The SEC might not have been overrated.
Today’s Best Bets: The AL Central and the Elite Eight
Seth Lugo vs. Gavin Williams, and how big of favorites Florida and Duke should be.
Today’s Best Bets: Underdogs
On the diamond and the hardwood…
Sweet 16 Desperation Rankings: How Bad Does Duke Need This?
A numeric approach to existential hope and dread.
Today’s Best Bets: Opening Day, the Sweet Sixteen, and Our First MLB Futures of 2025
A great big Thursday.
Today’s Best Bets: More NIT Quarterfinals
Injuries and conference ratings and the futures market.
College Basketball Coaching Carousel: Head Coach Scores
Sean Miller’s teams have been 72% worse than those of other coaches at Arizona and Xavier.
Today’s Best Bets: Will NIT Overs Keep Hitting?
The scoring keeps coming in the NIT. Is that a real trend?
How Good Is the SEC, Really?
Even after a strong second round, there’s evidence the numbers overrate the SEC.
128 NIT Scenarios Remain. How Likely Is Each One?
In 3.3% of simulations…
Today’s Best Bets: The Last Huge Day of Basketball
We went 5–5 yesterday in the basketball, and 6–5 overall. We’re 34–28 so far on NIT and NCAA Tournament games. NCAA Tournament totals are now 0.5 points lower, on average, than their kenpom mark. Their median deviation is 0 points. The second round games played so far saw some high numbers. The first round games […]
Atlantic 10 Teams Are Struggling This March
In the NCAA Tournament and NIT, A-10 teams are 2–4 as favorites.
Today’s Best Bets: Inflation and the NIT
2.6 points per PSI?
Big Ten Teams Didn’t Just Win Their First Round Games. They Dominated.
Over eight games, Big Ten teams outperformed their kenpom predictions by 11.5 points per game.
Today’s Best Bets: A Better Understanding (Hopefully) of the Overs
NCAA Tournament, Day 2.
Ken Pomeroy’s Theory that the SEC Is Overrated Is Aging Well
Also: Possible reasons the Mountain West is overrated.
Today’s Best Bets: Will NCAA Tournament Totals Follow the NIT?
NIT overs are hot, and we *think* the NCAA Tournament is using the same ball.