For those who enjoy our Cubs bits…sorry for dropping the ball this offseason. We lost our grip on things in October and are just now catching up. We’re never going to be your best bet for single-minded in-depth coverage of the Cubs, or any other individual team, but we like to provide 1) worthwhile analysis and 2) a safety net where you can make sure you haven’t missed something important happening, and we haven’t really done that over the last few months, so our bad on that. That said…
We’re doing it now. What follows is a catch-up on the Cubs offseason, for both our benefit and yours. Credit to Tim Dierkes at MLB Trade Rumors for his own offseason review of the Cubs, which helps us out a lot here. Credit also, as always, to FanGraphs for their numerous resources.
We’re breaking this up into five sections. The first, Who’s New?, will look at whom the Cubs added, both on the field and off it. The second, Who’s Gone?, will look at which players departed. The third, Where Did Our Friends Go?, is especially relevant right now in Cubs history, as we locate last year’s diaspora. The fourth, What Does the Team Look Like Now?, will be a breakdown of the current rosters and the injured list. The fifth, How Good Are We Going to Be?, will examine the Cubs’ 2022 outlook. Ready? Let’s begin.
Who’s New?
There are three categories here: significant on-field additions, significant off-field additions, and insignificant on-field additions. To be clear, the third category isn’t players who don’t matter. Every player can matter. It’s players who weren’t brought in to shape the franchise in a massive way. Players who will hopefully work out, but who aren’t the big bets from the front office. The filler characters.
Significant On-Field Additions
- Seiya Suzuki
- Marcus Stroman
The Cubs were necessarily busy in free agency, but they weren’t as busy as many hoped. Really, it was just two significant signings. The first was Stroman, who agreed to a three-year, $71 million-dollar shortly before the lockout commenced. He’s not starting on Opening Day, but he’s expected to be the Cubs’ best pitcher in 2022. The second was Suzuki, who signed for five years and either $85M or $100M, depending on whether or not you include the posting fee involved with international signings like this one. Suzuki, the Cubs’ expected right fielder, is 27 years old and has been playing his prior career in Japan. He’s still developing (hitters generally peak at 30), but he’s already projected to be the Cubs’ best all-around player this year, and while that might not be saying too much (spoiler alert for the last section: it’s a rough outlook), he’s a cornerstone who’s expected to be here when the tides turn and the Cubs are a contender again, something that can be said with equivalent certainty of no one else on the active roster.
Significant Off-Field Additions
- Carter Hawkins
- Greg Brown
If you were to point to the two most crucial issues which hampered the Cubs from capitalizing on their post-2016 promise, they would be developing minor league pitching and developing major league hitting. Enter Hawkins, enter Brown.
Hawkins, the new general manager (Jed Hoyer will still be calling a lot of the shots, filling Theo Epstein’s role from the previous Epstein-Hoyer tandem), comes with a track record of developing excellent pitching with the Cleveland Guardians. Again and again, Cleveland has brought great starters into the league, and while that’s not going to be the only thing Hawkins focuses on, his developmental pedigree is the clear draw.
Brown, the new hitting coach, previously a minor league hitting coordinator for the Rays, is 41 years old (four years older than Hawkins), and was the head coach for nine years at Nova Southeastern University, a Division II school in Florida. I’m not very informed on his overall hitting philosophy, (Is Nico Hoerner’s his kind of swing? Would Kris Bryant’s have been? Is it not that simple?) but the more important point about Brown is that he has experience working with young hitters, which the Cubs have a lot of in this current iteration. Even Suzuki, again, is just 27. This is a young team.
Insignificant On-Field Additions
- Wade Miley
- Yan Gomes
- Jonathan Villar
- Andrelton Simmons
- Clint Frazier
- Drew Smyly
- Mychal Givens
- David Robertson
- Chris Martin
- Daniel Norris
- Jesse Chavez
These aren’t nobodies. But they’re all role players. Givens, Robertson, Martin, Norris, and old friend Chavez will form much of the backbone of the bullpen. Frazier and Villar figure to start the season on the bench, where Simmons will likely join them once healthy. Gomes is the backup catcher, signed on a two-year deal (everyone else on this list is on a one-year contract, with some options thrown in here and there) and potentially starting quite a few games if Willson Contreras gets traded, which we’ll get into below. Miley and Smyly are rotation-fillers, and Miley’s currently hurt but he should be the better of the two when all’s said and done. (Barring surprise, you could allow Miley to start a playoff game. If Smyly were in position to start one, you might want to have your bullpen guys show up even earlier than usual.)
Overall, it’s not a bad crop, but it’s guys who are mostly here to help bide time. Hopefully, they break out, but more likely, they’re filling the roster.
Who’s Gone?
The MLB Trade Rumors list of “notable losses” consists of Zach Davies, Matt Duffy, Sergio Alcántara, Eric Sogard, Robinson Chirinos, and Rex Brothers, which is mostly a reminder of how stripped-down this team was by the end of last year. Of the six, Duffy and Chirinos are the most noteworthy—Duffy ended up signing a one-year deal with the Angels, Chirinos signed a one-year deal with the Orioles. Nothing major lost here, as much as we liked Duffy and as good as others occasionally were (not you, Davies and Sogard). Tommy Nance was recently DFA’d and claimed by the Marlins. He may well have been a pine tar guy, but we’ll never know for sure. Wish him the best, of course.
Where Did Our Friends Go?
Ah, yes. The diaspora. Anthony Rizzo returned to the Yankees on a two-year deal. Kris Bryant signed with the Rockies for six years. Javy Báez is a Tiger now, and will be for four seasons should he complete his contract there. Kyle Schwarber signed for four years with the Phillies. There are others, of course, but those are the big four. That’s where they are now. Expect solid performance but nothing earth-shattering from any of them. The problem isn’t that the Cubs let them go. The problem is that the Cubs failed to develop them, leading to a situation where it made sense to let them go. Hopefully Hawkins and Brown change that.
What Does the Team Look Like Now?
The active roster’s at 28 for the month of April due to the abridgement of spring training. One of the guys below will have to be removed from it before tomorrow, but we don’t know who. Most speculation says it’ll either be Alfonso Rivas or Michael Rucker.
Active Roster: Pitchers
- Kyle Hendricks (SP)
- Marcus Stroman (SP)
- Drew Smyly (SP)
- Alec Mills (SP)
- Justin Steele (SP/RP)
- Rowan Wick (RP)
- David Robertson (RP)
- Mychal Givens (RP)
- Chris Martin (RP)
- Daniel Norris (RP)
- Scott Effross (RP)
- Ethan Roberts (RP)
- Jesse Chavez (RP)
- Keegan Thompson (RP)
- Michael Rucker (RP)
On the roster, the only left-handers are Steele, Smyly, and Norris, although Miley is also a lefty and one would assume he’ll bump Steele to the ‘pen when he returns, so long as that’s an option. Steele’s currently slated to start Friday’s game, but that will likely be postponed, so if I’m reading things correctly, it’s possible he won’t actually start until Sunday, April 17th, against the Rockies in Colorado. In short, really just four starters right now, two of them (Smyly, Mills) come with big question marks, one of them (Hendricks) is coming off a bad year. The bullpen has a lot of guys who could be pretty good, and have been great for at least one stretch of their career so far. Overall, though, none of the veterans are thriving entering the year, and Effross, Roberts, Thompson, and Rucker are uncertain entities.
Active Roster: Hitters
- Willson Contreras (C)
- Yan Gomes (C)
- Frank Schwindel (1B)
- Alfonso Rivas (1B/OF)
- Nick Madrigal (2B)
- Nico Hoerner (SS)
- Patrick Wisdom (3B)
- Jonathan Villar (INF/OF)
- Seiya Suzuki (OF)
- Jason Heyward (OF)
- Ian Happ (OF)
- Rafael Ortega (OF)
- Michael Hermosillo (OF)
- Clint Frazier (OF)
Yes, Jason Heyward’s still around, still muddling through. Rough situation for all involved there. Willson Contreras is also still around, which is surprising—normally, you want to trade a catcher in the offseason because knowing a pitching staff is such a big deal at that position, and the Cubs and Contreras don’t seem to agree on anything regarding an extension beyond this year besides that it’s not happening (could always change). Madrigal is a cornerstone, like Suzuki, but he missed a lot of time last year with a torn hamstring (part of why the Cubs were able to get him for as cheap a price as they did), so there are questions there. Schwindel and Wisdom were each sensational for a stretch last season, and there’s a little optimism around each, though not an overwhelming amount, and projections are higher on Wisdom than the conventional wisdom would suggest. Happ really righted the ship down the stretch last year, and there’s upside from the rest of the outfield but plenty of accompanying downside. Hoerner only turns 25 in May and has a great glove, but pessimism abounds regarding his bat, and he had a lot of injury troubles last season himself.
It’s one of those corps where it wouldn’t be surprising to see only two players still here from it 24 months from now. Those two being Suzuki and Madrigal, who are each playing their first regular season game for the Cubs tomorrow.
Injured List
- Andrelton Simmons (SS, 15-Day)
- Wade Miley (SP, 15-Day)
- Codi Heuer (RP, 60-Day)
- Brad Wieck (RP, 60-Day)
- Adbert Alzolay (SP, 60-Day)
- David Bote (INF/OF, 60-Day)
- Alexander Vizcaino (SP, Restricted List)
Simmons is out with a shoulder injury, but shouldn’t miss a terrible amount of time. He’s got a good glove, terrible bat in recent years. Miley has elbow inflammation but will hopefully be back around the month’s end. Bote is still recovering from offseason shoulder surgery, which I believe stemmed from that dislocation last summer. Alzolay has a lat injury. Heuer underwent Tommy John surgery—he was the other big return in the Craig Kimbrel deal, but Madrigal was always the centerpiece of that, enamored with Heuer as many were at the time (don’t get attached to relief pitchers, folks). Wieck has an elbow strain but I haven’t heard the dreaded TJ words there. We don’t really know what’s going on with Vizcaíno—the Restricted List is a mysterious beast—but we hope he and those around him are ok. He’s a minor leaguer right now, but on the 40-man roster when active. Good prospect, long ways to go.
Rest of 40-Man Roster
- Miguel Amaya (C)
- Nelson Velazquez (OF)
- Christopher Morel (3B/OF)
- Greg Deichmann (RF/LF)
- Alexander Canario (OF)
- Brailyn Marquez (SP)
- Cory Abbott (SP)
- Anderson Espinoza (SP)
- Manuel Rodríguez (RP)
None of these guys are the Cubs’ best prospects anymore. Part of this is due to their own withering—Amaya was hurt much of last year, Marquez missed the whole of last year between illness and injury—but part of it is that the Cubs really restocked the farm system via recent trades, the draft, and international signings. Of the Cubs’ top ten prospects on FanGraphs, I believe only Brennen Davis was in the organization before the 2020 draft, and of the rest of the top ten, five were acquired through the Yu Darvish, Kris Bryant, and Anthony Rizzo trades.
All of this is to say, don’t expect any immediate contributions from these players at the MLB level. Of the nine listed here, I’d be surprised to see any but Deichmann, Abbott, and Rodríguez over the next month.
How Good Are We Going to Be?
It doesn’t look great, guys. On paper, the Cubs are better than just six MLB teams, using FanGraphs’s depth charts. Somehow, that list of six doesn’t include the Reds, who really sold off in the post-lockout months. FanGraphs’s playoff odds have the Cubs finishing 75-87, with a 6.6% chance of reaching the playoffs and just a 3.1% chance of winning the division. Those odds are probably accurate, but the overall record is likely to be worse, because the Cubs will probably be sellers again this trade deadline.
Contreras is due to be a free agent this offseason. Heyward, Hendricks, Gomes, and Happ are all set to be free agents after 2023. Villar has an option for next year, as do Smyly and Givens, but Simmons, Robertson, Norris, and Chavez are all on pure one-year deals. There’s a reason the Cubs grabbed so many bullpen assets, and it’s not just that they needed to construct a bullpen with a pretty bad starting pitching staff. Relievers are always in demand in July, and it’s possible Contreras will be in demand as well. It’s even possible Gomes or Happ or yes, even Hendricks could be dealt. The only players to count on for 2023 are Madrigal and Suzuki.
Is there a path to not selling? Yes. One-in-twenty isn’t nothing, and that’s just to make the playoffs. All the Cubs have to do to make this fun is be in playoff contention. That said…the odds of being in playoff contention can’t be much higher than one-in-ten, and being on the fringe will likely lead the front office to sell expiring assets. It won’t be as big a selloff as last year—what’s left to sell, after all—but unless the Cubs are competing for the division title, selling is probably the destination.
What needs to happen for the Cubs to compete for that division title? And why not a wild card spot?
The problem with the wild card spot is that there are three clearly competitive teams in each of the NL West and the NL East. Even with an extra spot, the Cubs would need the bottom to fall out for at least two of those to really have a chance. Given two are the Mets and Phillies, and given the Giants struck a little gold last year and the Padres combusted, maybe it can happen, but the likelier path is the division.
Within the Central, FanGraphs has the Brewers winning 89 games, the Cardinals winning 82, and the Reds right there with the Cubs, with the Pirates behind both. Those aren’t insurmountable totals. What the Cubs probably need is the Brewers to land somewhere around 84 or 85 wins, the Cardinals to not overachieve, and the Cubs to be at better than a .500 pace halfway through July. Is that doable? Sure, it’s possible. It’s not that far outside the realm of possibility. Maybe Hendricks and Stroman become a fearsome 1-2 punch. Maybe Suzuki and Madrigal break out, and Contreras and Happ rise back up, and Wisdom and Schwindel bop and Hoerner’s bat comes around. Maybe Heyward has a little renaissance. Maybe someone from the bench shocks the world. Maybe the bullpen ends up being elite.
It’s a lot of maybes, but you don’t need all of them to hit. You need half of them to hit. Well, possibly three-quarters, actually. Regardless, in the short term a reasonable goal (we’re all about reasonable goals with the Cubs) is to manage a .500 record over the month of April, losing the series with Atlanta and Tampa Bay but splitting the rest and grabbing one extra win against either the Pirates, Rockies, or Brewers (the Cubs only play five teams in April, playing six each against the Brewers and Pirates). Of course, it wouldn’t be surprising to have more than one game postponed, but you get the picture. Split the two-game set. Avoid getting swept. Steal series where you can steal series. And hopefully, when late May rolls around and the weather gets nice and the Cubs have gotten through a west coast trip and half their games against Los Angeles, San Diego, and Atlanta, we’ll look up and they’ll be hanging around. People forget: Last year was a lot of fun for the first few months.
