The Cubs battled back yesterday, winning a high-leverage, high-pressure game on the back of one of their only two reliable starting pitchers. It kept the weekend at “frustrating” rather than “catastrophic,” but still left the lead over the Cardinals at an uncomfortable two and a half games, with the Brewers and Reds not much further behind.
It’s the Brewers and Reds the Cubs have to deal with next; the former for three nights at Wrigley, the latter this weekend in Milwaukee. The road doesn’t get easier from there. Aside from a four-game set in Pittsburgh, the Cubs close it out with games against the three good AL Central teams, all of whom are better than anyone the Cubs’ NL schedule has to offer.
This difference in quality between AL Central and NL Central contenders is noteworthy. By virtue of a combination of playing in the National League and starting the season with remarkable starting pitching, the Cubs have had some cushion to work with. They’ve also gotten to play the bulk of their schedule against a division that ranges in quality from mediocre to the Pirates. Nobody, at this point, would accuse the Cubs of being a great team, but they’re less mediocre than their competition, and that’s been the life raft that currently projects to carry them forward into the playoffs, where they could well line up as the NL’s second-most likely representative in the World Series thanks to a combination of a favorable draw (should the Cubs win the division, they’d almost certainly line up on the side opposite the Dodgers and Padres), attrition (Max Fried went on the Injured List today for Atlanta), and—again—mediocrity (the Phillies, Marlins, Mets, Giants, and Rockies don’t exactly strike fear into anyone’s heart).
The question, then, is whether the Cubs can hold onto the division lead, something they failed to do each of the past two years. The answer is, of course, yes, so I suppose the real question is whether they will.
There are certainly things going well for the Cubs. Yu Darvish is a Cy Young contender. Ian Happ is in the second tier of MVP candidates (if one counts Fernando Tatís Jr. as the sole inhabitant of the top tier). Jason Heyward and Jason Kipnis are each having career seasons at the plate. There are some immensely talented bats in the lineup that are liable to turn on at any time.
The problem, of course, is that those bats haven’t turned it on. Kris Bryant and Javy Báez both have wRC+’s under 60 (i.e., they’re more than 40% worse than an average MLB hitter). Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras, and Kyle Schwarber have all been above average, but not by the margin one would ask. Excluding Kipnis and arguably David Bote, role players aren’t doing anything good at the plate. The offense has a perfectly average 100 wRC+.
On the mound, things aren’t much different. The rotation that looked so good out of the gate has nosedived, with Alec Mills regressing, Jon Lester imploding, and Tyler Chatwood and José Quintana physically breaking. Adbert Alzolay has pitched well, and that’s good, because he’s currently the third starter. But it’s only been two starts for Alzolay, and one of those was three weeks ago. The bullpen has done better than at the start, but aside from Jeremy Jeffress and Rowan Wick, there aren’t any solidly reliable arms there either.
Of course, the Cubs could well hang on without improving against any of these issues. Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Happ, and Heyward could do enough to hold off the pack (which, it should be noted, will likely do some cannibalization of its own with the Reds yet to play three each against the Brewers and Cardinals, and the Brewers and Cardinals yet to play all ten of their games against one another). The NL Central, as has been said, is mediocre.
But even so, hanging on is no sure thing. And while we talk a lot about winning each series in these posts, and that’s of course the goal these three nights against the Reds, there could be a lot of pressure on Darvish tomorrow night to just keep the Cubs from getting swept. He’ll be facing Trevor Bauer. Mills opposes Tyler Mahle tonight. Alzolay has to match Sonny Gray on Thursday.
The pressure’s only rising.
