North Dakota State is rolling. Southern Utah has become a wrecking ball. The Cats and the Griz are on a collision course.
We’re going conference by conference, focusing on playoff probabilities and the chances teams make their conference championship. If you want this for the FBS, here you go. Some fine print:
- Probabilities come from Wednesday morning, after the Tuesday night games but not inclusive of anything else. If they differ at all from what we listed elsewhere, it’s just normal deviations from a “small” sample of simulations. 10,000 simulations is a lot, but probabilities wobble by a percentage point or two when you only run that many in every set.
- Movelor is our model’s power rating system. It gives us spreads.
- Our model currently only accounts for two-way and three-way ties that can be solved by direct head-to-head. No other conference tiebreakers are included in our model yet this year. We’ll start adding more next week.
- We’re only focusing on games with conference championship and playoff impact. That leaves us with plenty of games, but there are always games left out.
- When we list out the standings, we only go down far enough to include teams with a 5% or better chance of winning their conference title.
MVFC
Standings:
- North Dakota State: 5–0
- North Dakota: 4–0
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- North Dakota at South Dakota (North Dakota by 12.8)
- Northern Iowa at Illinois State (Illinois State by 8.2)
- Indiana State at South Dakota State (South Dakota State by 31.8)
- Youngstown State at North Dakota State (North Dakota State by 30.7)
- Southern Illinois at Murray State (Southern Illinois by 20.8)
Playoff probabilities:
- Illinois State: 29% right now, 39% with a win, 4% with a loss
- North Dakota: 95% right now, 99% with a win, 76% with a loss
- North Dakota State: 100%
- South Dakota: 6% right now, 23% with a win, 2% with a loss
- South Dakota State: 100% right now, 100% with a win, 99% with a loss
- Southern Illinois: 49% right now, 53% with a win, 13% with a loss
- Youngstown State: 44% right now, 87% with a win, 43% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- North Dakota: 13% right now, 14% with a win, 8% with a loss
- North Dakota State: 85% right now, 85% with a win, 80% with a loss
Big Sky
Standings:
- Montana: 4–0
- Montana State: 4–0
- UC Davis: 4–0
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Idaho at Northern Arizona (Northern Arizona by 4.4)
- Montana State at Northern Colorado (Montana State by 25.7)
- Montana at Weber State (Montana by 16.5)
- Sacramento State at Eastern Washington (Eastern Washington by 0.1)
- Idaho State at UC Davis (UC Davis by 15.4)
Playoff probabilities:
- Eastern Washington: 4% right now, 8% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Idaho: 3% right now, 7% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Montana: 100% right now, 100% with a win, 99% with a loss
- Montana State: 100% right now, 100% with a win, 98% with a loss
- Northern Arizona: 74% right now, 89% with a win, 49% with a loss
- Sacramento State: 8% right now, 16% with a win, 0% with a loss
- UC Davis: 98% right now, 100% with a win, 88% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Montana: 27% right now, 29% with a win, 13% with a loss
- Montana State: 64% right now, 65% with a win, 50% with a loss
- UC Davis: 9% right now, 10% with a win, 2% with a loss
UAC
Standings:
- Tarleton State: 5–0
- Abilene Christian: 3–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Tarleton State at Abilene Christian (Tarleton State by 10.1)
- Austin Peay at Southern Utah (Southern Utah by 1.0)
Playoff probabilities:
- Abilene Christian: 31% right now, 74% with a win, 17% with a loss
- Austin Peay: 48% right now, 86% with a win, 15% with a loss
- Southern Utah: 4% right now, 7% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Tarleton State: 100%
Conference championship probabilities:
- Abilene Christian: 16% right now, 66% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Tarleton State: 84% right now, 100% with a win, 33% with a loss
Ivy League
Standings:
- Harvard: 3–0
- Dartmouth: 2–1
- Penn: 2–1
- Yale: 2–1
- Princeton: 2–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Brown at Penn (Penn by 12.0)
- Columbia at Yale (Yale by 25.6)
- Dartmouth at Harvard (Harvard by 11.6)
Playoff probabilities:
- Brown: 1% right now, 2% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Dartmouth: 83% right now, 97% with a win, 79% with a loss
- Harvard: 99% right now, 100% with a win, 94% with a loss
- Penn: 25% right now, 31% with a win, 3% with a loss
- Yale: 72% right now, 74% with a win, 20% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Dartmouth: 14% right now, 64% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Harvard: 54% right now, 65% with a win, 15% with a loss
- Penn: 4% right now, 5% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Yale: 27% right now, 28% with a win, 1% with a loss
CAA
Standings:
- Rhode Island: 5–0
- Monmouth: 4–0
- Villanova: 5–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Monmouth at Bryant (Monmouth by 13.7)
Playoff probabilities:
- Monmouth: 90% right now, 95% with a win, 68% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Monmouth: 46% right now, 53% with a win, 13% with a loss
Southland
Standings:
- Lamar: 4–0
- Southeastern Louisiana: 4–0
- Stephen F. Austin: 4–0
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Lamar at Incarnate Word (Incarnate Word by 4.7)
- East Texas A&M at Southeastern Louisiana (Southeastern Louisiana by 18.2)
- UTRGV at Stephen F. Austin (Stephen F. Austin by 17.0)
Playoff probabilities:
- Lamar: 54% right now, 87% with a win, 35% with a loss
- Southeastern Louisiana: 73% right now, 78% with a win, 34% with a loss
- Stephen F. Austin: 94% right now, 98% with a win, 73% with a loss
- UTRGV: 3% right now, 26% with a win, 0% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Lamar: 7% right now, 12% with a win, 5% with a loss
- Southeastern Louisiana: 27% right now, 30% with a win, 6% with a loss
- Stephen F. Austin: 65% right now, 70% with a win, 33% with a loss
SoCon
Standings:
- Mercer: 5–0
- Western Carolina: 4–0
- Chattanooga: 3–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Mercer at Furman (Mercer by 12.7)
- Western Carolina at Chattanooga (Chattanooga by 0.4)
Playoff probabilities:
- Chattanooga: 7% right now, 13% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Furman: 2% right now, 8% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Mercer: 87% right now, 94% with a win, 56% with a loss
- Western Carolina: 37% right now, 56% with a win, 20% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Chattanooga: 6% right now, 12% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Furman: 0% right now, 2% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Mercer: 64% right now, 67% with a win, 48% with a loss
- Western Carolina: 30% right now, 41% with a win, 19% with a loss
SWAC
Standings, East Division:
- Jackson State: 3–1
- Alabama State: 3–1
- Bethune-Cookman: 3–1
Standings, West Division:
- Prairie View A&M: 4–0
- Texas Southern: 3–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Alabama State at Prairie View A&M (Alabama State by 13.8)
- Alcorn State at Texas Southern (Texas Southern by 8.6)
- Mississippi Valley State at Bethune-Cookman (Bethune-Cookman by 24.1)
- Jackson State at Florida A&M (Jackson State by 18.2)
Playoff probabilities:
- Alabama State: 30% right now, 36% with a win, 0% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Alabama State: 26% right now, 31% with a win, 4% with a loss
- Bethune-Cookman: 2% right now, 2% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Jackson State: 55% right now, 61% with a win, 11% with a loss
- Prairie View A&M: 15% right now, 28% with a win, 12% with a loss
- Texas Southern: 1% right now, 2% with a win, 0% with a loss
OVC–Big South
Standings:
- Tennessee Tech: 5–0
- Gardner-Webb: 3–1
- UT Martin: 3–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Gardner-Webb at Tennessee Tech (Tennessee Tech by 19.1)
- UT Martin at Eastern Illinois (UT Martin by 4.8)
Playoff probabilities:
- Gardner-Webb: 19% right now, 63% with a win, 14% with a loss
- Tennessee Tech: 99% right now, 100% with a win, 95% with a loss
- UT Martin: 5% right now, 8% with a win, 1% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Gardner-Webb: 5% right now, 48% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Tennessee Tech: 90% right now, 95% with a win, 42% with a loss
- UT Martin: 5% right now, 8% with a win, 1% with a loss
Patriot League
Standings:
- Lehigh: 3–0
- Lafayette: 3–0
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Georgetown at Lehigh (Lehigh by 22.4)
- Lafayette at Holy Cross (Holy Cross by 3.4)
Playoff probabilities:
- Georgetown: 2% right now, 20% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Holy Cross: 2% right now, 3% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Lafayette: 15% right now, 26% with a win, 8% with a loss
- Lehigh: 99% right now, 100% with a win, 94% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Georgetown: 2% right now, 20% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Holy Cross: 2% right now, 3% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Lafayette: 15% right now, 25% with a win, 8% with a loss
- Lehigh: 79% right now, 82% with a win, 46% with a loss
Pioneer League
Standings:
- Drake: 4–0
- Dayton: 4–1
- Presbyterian: 3–1
- Butler: 3–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Drake at Butler (Drake by 4.5)
- Valparaiso at Presbyterian (Presbyterian by 32.9)
- Dayton at San Diego (San Diego by 2.5)
Playoff probabilities:
- Butler: 13% right now, 34% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Dayton: 15% right now, 31% with a win, 2% with a loss
- Drake: 54% right now, 73% with a win, 21% with a loss
- Presbyterian: 45% right now, 46% with a win, 5% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Butler: 13% right now, 34% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Dayton: 14% right now, 31% with a win, 2% with a loss
- Drake: 54% right now, 73% with a win, 21% with a loss
- Presbyterian: 16% right now, 16% with a win, 1% with a loss
NEC
Standings:
- Central Connecticut State: 3–0
- Duquesne: 3–1
- Stonehill: 2–1
- Mercyhurst: 2–2
- LIU: 1–2
- Robert Morris: 1–2
- Wagner: 1–2
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- LIU at Central Connecticut State (Central Connecticut State by 6.9)
- Robert Morris at Stonehill (Stonehill by 4.6)
Playoff probabilities:
- Central Connecticut State: 44% right now, 53% with a win, 23% with a loss
- LIU: 5% right now, 16% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Stonehill: 7% right now, 10% with a win, 1% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Central Connecticut State: 43% right now, 52% with a win, 22% with a loss
- LIU: 5% right now, 15% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Stonehill: 7% right now, 10% with a win, 1% with a loss
MEAC
Standings:
- Delaware State: 1–0
- Howard: 1–0
- South Carolina State: 1–0
- Morgan State: 0–1
- Norfolk State: 0–1
- North Carolina Central: 0–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Norfolk State at Delaware State (Delaware State by 17.5)
- Morgan State at South Carolina State (South Carolina State by 12.6)
- North Carolina Central at Howard (North Carolina Central by 8.9)
Conference championship probabilities:
- Delaware State: 34% right now, 37% with a win, 10% with a loss
- Howard: 9% right now, 23% with a win, 4% with a loss
- Morgan State: 3% right now, 13% with a win, 0% with a loss
- North Carolina Central: 14% right now, 20% with a win, 0% with a loss
- South Carolina State: 40% right now, 47% with a win, 12% with a loss
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