Marcus Semien has reached the playoffs twice in his career. Seven of his nine career postseason games came in the expanded 2020 format. In the three years since, the 32-year-old has been, by fWAR, the tenth-best player in baseball, up there near Shohei Ohtani and José Ramírez and Mookie Betts. He hasn’t gotten another postseason chance, though, and entering this week, his Rangers sit half a game outside of playoff position after spending most of the year comfortably above the cut line.
Why do we focus on Semien, rather than Ohtani or Francisco Lindor? Because as the Rangers have faded and the leverage has grown larger, Semien has only played better and better. This weekend, he homered twice and doubled twice as Texas rallied from a Friday loss to take their series over Oakland. Since the All-Star Break, his wRC+ is up to 150, fifty percent better than the average major leaguer. Since the beginning of August? 154. Since the beginning of September? 220. What Marcus Semien is doing is a little bit like a marathoner starting their kick. It might not be enough, but it sure is something to watch.
Here’s what else went down this weekend.
The Stars
Zac Gallen is another stud with little postseason exposure (he’s actually never made the playoffs), and he too might be turning in his best with the pressure on. On Friday, Gallen threw a complete-game shutout against the Cubs, who are fourth in the majors in scoring since their hot streak began on July 21st. Gallen struck out nine in the effort and allowed just five batters to reach base, none of the five making it safely to second. It was a dominant performance amidst a statement weekend for Arizona, who leads a frenzied NL Wild Card pack by half a game.
The Brewers are trying to stay out of that Wild Card pack, and yesterday it was Corbin Burnes leading the way, throwing eight no-hit innings before yielding after 109 pitches. The no-hitter lasted through the tenth, but with one out in the eleventh, Oswaldo Cabrera doubled to score Anthony Volpe, tying a game the Yankees would go on to win in 13. Milwaukee still sits comfortably atop the NL Central, six losses clear of the playoff cut line with only twenty games to play, but it was a missed opportunity for the Crew.
For as good as those outings were, Pablo López’s was even better, with the Twins starter allowing the Mets to put only twelve balls in play, striking out fourteen over eight scoreless innings. The Twins continue to wait for the rest of the American League to finish up, leading Cleveland now by 7.5 games with little hope of improving their home-field lot.
Tanner Scott didn’t have the most noteworthy weekend in the box score, but the Marlins closer—reinstalled after trade deadline acquisition David Robertson struggled in August—struck out four of the nine Phillies he faced, wriggling out of a jam on yesterday as the Marlins took a crucial series in their effort to hang with Arizona. The efforts were good enough to lead the league in Win Probability Added over these last three days.
At the plate, Mike Yastrzemski had a nice time, not homering once but notching a 1.750 OPS anyway, only making two outs as the Giants swept the Rockies. They too are in this NL Wild Card situation. It is a big situation.
And, finally, Yandy Díaz had a big day on Saturday, leading all hitters in weekend WPA via his RBI double in the 7th, which gave the Rays a brief lead, and his walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth. The Rays took three of four over the Mariners, keeping the Orioles potentially within reach and pushing Seattle back to the knife’s edge themselves.
The Series
In the American League:
- The Rays, as mentioned, won three against Seattle after losing the opener on Thursday.
- The Rangers took those two of three from the visiting A’s.
- The Astros won two out of three against the Padres.
- Baltimore won two of three over the Red Sox, scoring a combined 24 runs over the first two games of the set.
- The Blue Jays swept the Royals, passing the Mariners in the standings to climb to fifth place, far from safety.
- Minnesota took two of three from the Mets, dropping yesterday’s despite López’s strong effort.
The NL:
- The Diamondbacks took those three of four from the Cubs, who did manage to avoid the sweep yesterday.
- Miami took those two of three in Philadelphia, coming out of a Dodgers–Phillies week with four wins and only two losses.
- The Reds struggled in St. Louis, losing the first two of the weekend before winning yesterday to avoid outright disaster.
- The Giants bounced back against the Rockies, taking three straight after entering having lost six in a row.
- Milwaukee fell yesterday, but still took two out of three in the Bronx.
- The Dodgers went to Washington and won two out of three against the Nats.
- And, in Atlanta, the best team in baseball won another series, taking down the Pirates two games to one.
The Situation
In the competitive divisions, the movement was as follows:
- The Rays gained half a game on the Orioles, now sitting three games but four losses back. The Orioles most likely hold the tiebreaker there.
- The Rangers and Astros each gained a game and a half on the Mariners. Houston now leads Seattle by 2.5 and Texas by an even three, though Seattle and Texas each only trail by two in the loss column. Seattle and Texas each hold a potential tiebreaker over Houston. A tie between the two remains unsettled, as does a three-way tie.
- The Brewers gained a game and a half on the Cubs, now leading by three games but four losses.
With the Wild Cards, as always, it was busy.
Toronto gained two and a half on Seattle and a single game on Texas, leaving the standings there as follows:
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5. Toronto: 80–63
6. Seattle: 79–64
7. Texas: 78–64
…
This week, the Blue Jays and Rangers meet for four games in Toronto. Seattle welcomes Anaheim for three. Houston is hosting the A’s, looking to potentially put the division away by Monday (they visit the Royals this weekend). The Rays are in Minnesota for three. Baltimore is hosting the Cardinals. The Jays would be very happy with a series split. Everyone else could really use a series win.
In the NL, the Diamondbacks climbed two games on the Cubs, a game and a half on the Phillies, and half a game on the Brewers. The Marlins lost half a game to Arizona. The Giants gained half a game on Arizona. The Reds lost a game and a half on Arizona. That leaves the standings as follows:
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3. Milwaukee: 79–63
4. Philadelphia: 78–64
5. Chicago: 77–67
6. Arizona: 75–69
7. Miami: 74–69
8. San Francisco: 73–70
9. Cincinnati: 74–71
…
This week, the Phillies are already underway in a four-game series against Atlanta which begins with a doubleheader today. The Cubs are in Colorado for three while the Brewers host Miami for four. The Diamondbacks are over in Queens, playing four against the Mets. The Giants host Cleveland for a trio. The Reds will play three in Detroit beginning tomorrow night. Milwaukee and Philadelphia have nowhere to climb but would like to create some space and avoid slipping into the fray. The Cubs are looking to find some safety, but it’s hard to gain ground on all four teams behind them at once. Everyone else is just looking to win baseball games and climb towards whatever the necessary number of wins is to grab this 6-seed, likely somewhere around 86 or 87.
This Week’s Best Games
Tyler Glasnow is opposite Sonny Gray tonight at Target Field, with Brandon Woodruff vs. Jesús Luzardo also a great one. Zack Wheeler faces Max Fried tomorrow while Max Scherzer takes on Hyun Jin Ryu. Blake Snell is listed against Ryan Pepiot in Los Angeles on Wednesday. On Thursday, Kevin Gausman and Nathan Eovaldi close out that series up in Canada.
Who’s Hot
Since August 1st, the Dodgers have the best record in baseball, at 28–10. On the month of September, the Orioles, Blue Jays, and Marlins are all 7–2.
On the mound, Cole Ragans has still been the best since the beginning of August, having thrown nearly fifty innings and allowed just nine earned runs. Over everyone’s last two starts, Glasnow’s been the best, striking out twenty and walking only one over thirteen innings of work.
Among position players, Mookie Betts still leads the league in fWAR since the beginning of August, having scored 37 runs in just 41 days. Since September began, Kyle Schwarber leads, having clubbed six home runs.
In WPA, Bryce Harper leads since the start of August, having added 3.85 wins to Philadelphia’s outcomes. On the month, it’s Seiya Suzuki, with 1.07 of the stuff.
(If you are reading this before the Phillies–Braves day game ends, it’s getting good. Trea Turner just homered to pull the Phils within two.)
