We were low on BYU.
Early in the year, we thought they weren’t even going to make the NIT. We thought last year’s magic was gone, and that Mark Pope had his work cut out for him building back to what the Cougars had before the pandemic dashed their hopes.
Pope was quicker than we thought.
As of this morning, our updated bracketology projects Provo’s finest to nab a 4-seed. In the median simulation, they sweep their home games against San Francisco and Saint Mary’s this week, then take advantage of a favorable WCC Tournament bracket to win their semifinal before falling to Gonzaga in the conference championship. So while our model is higher than the Bracket Matrix average, which had the Cougars at a 7-seed entering yesterday, it’s also accounting for the fact that Brigham Young is one of the few schools nationally who’s likely to lose only once more before Selection Sunday, with the added benefit that the loss will likely come from Gonzaga, arguably the best college basketball team in history.
How have the Cougars done it? For the most part, they’ve just avoided mistakes. Their only loss to a non-tournament team came in Malibu against Pepperdine. Their only home losses were to Gonzaga and Boise State. They did enough in nonconference play—beating San Diego State and Utah State on the road—to give their résumé some pop.
Alex Barcello has been excellent—a 45% three-point shooter, the senior might be the only non-Zag in the WCC who would get significant minutes on Gonzaga’s roster—but he hasn’t fully been alone. Matt Haarms has been a shotblocking force. Richard Harward and Caleb Lohner’s rebounding numbers are excellent. Brandon Averette has struggled with turnovers but has efficiently managed distribution from the point. There’s little at which BYU is excellent, statistically, but they’re good in a number of areas—interior defense, defensive rebounding, shooting efficiency, ball movement. All of this has them aimed at the fourth seed line, and with Clemson currently their projected counterpart in the second round, the Sweet Sixteen is neatly within their sights.
Today’s other movement:
Moving Up: Florida
Our model didn’t know Sharife Cooper would be out for Auburn last night, but the young star was, and Florida waltzed to a 17-point road victory over a decent basketball team. It wasn’t a stunner, but the downside was large enough and likely enough that the win changes the picture for the Gators, who will have plenty more opportunities to climb over the next two and a half weeks.
Moving Down: Virginia Tech
Coming back from a Covid break is hard enough without having to play a surging Georgia Tech. The Hokies were Moses Wright’s latest victim, as the big man poured in 26 while his hosts limped to a blowout defeat. Virginia Tech isn’t in grave danger. But it is on the edge of the bubble.
Moving In: Georgia Tech, Georgia State (auto-bid), James Madison (auto-bid)
Speaking of Georgia Tech, they’re a projected 12-seed now, just above the First Four, and our model thinks they’re fairly likely to make the ACC semifinals, a run that would almost certainly put them in the bracket.
We continued our effort to input conferences’ treatments of postponements and conferences’ tournament plans into our model, with the SoCon and Sun Belt our ninth and tenth leagues updated (joining the A-10, A-East, A-Sun, Big South, Horizon, MVC, OVC, and WCC). With the Sun Belt abandoning the double ladder for the year, Georgia State becomes the tournament favorite there, while James Madison has ever-so-narrowly edged Northeastern as our favorite in the CAA (it is very close between those two teams).
Moving Out: Seton Hall, Northeastern (auto-bid), Texas State (auto-bid)
Texas State was the corollary loser with Georgia State’s good news. Seton Hall made room for Georgia Tech. For what it’s worth, the model’s currently projecting one bid thief, and projecting SMU’s bid to be the one thieved.
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Planning on another update tomorrow. Not sure we’re in every-day mode yet, but we might be, and regardless, we always like the beginning of conference tournaments, so we’ll be enjoying periodically checking in on Horizon League scores tomorrow night.
