The playoff field is set. Here’s how likely Movelor thinks each team is to win the national championship, and whether I (Movelor’s creator) think the power rating system is right or wrong.
1. Ohio State: 28%
I’m tempted to put this probability higher, and it seems like others are as well. Curt Cignetti’s accomplishments at Indiana are remarkable, and the Hoosiers deserve all the credit in the world for winning the Big Ten this year. But I have to believe that Ohio State will be tougher to beat in January than in a semi-exhibition game the week after they finally took down Michigan.
2. Indiana: 20%
The concerns with Indiana are twofold. First, they’ll either have to go through Oregon again or we’re going to learn that Texas Tech is even better than Oregon. Either way, that’s a tough matchup. Second, their depth is untested, and three rounds of football against top-13 teams (Movelor has Alabama 12th and Oklahoma 13th) often leave teams bruised. I think Movelor overestimates Indiana’s probability. That said, if it is significantly overestimating Indiana, it would be the first time that’s happened in these last two years. With a few minor exceptions, Indiana’s power rating under Cignetti has only ever gone up.
3. Oregon: 16%
I don’t think the Ducks are a great team, but 16% is probably selling them short. They’re the fourth-most talented team in this, and they’ve shown a higher ceiling so far than two of the other three. As contenders become perennial contenders and the playoff becomes an expectation more than a goal, focus shifts from peaking in the regular season to peaking in January. Oregon has the talent for that to have been this year’s approach. I’m buying the Ducks at this number.
4. Texas Tech: 15%
Texas Tech shares Indiana’s depth concern. Texas Tech also has to worry about Oregon. Texas Tech should also probably be concerned about how its offense could hold up in a potential Indiana matchup, not to mention a matchup against Ohio State. These guys haven’t seen a defense with bodies like the Buckeyes’ or the schematic torture Indiana puts teams through. This number, again, should probably be a little lower.
5. Georgia: 9%
I’m buying here too. A big question about Movelor is whether it’s right about how low the top of the SEC has gotten. Movelor would have the second-best SEC team a 10-point underdog on a neutral field against Ohio State. That isn’t why I’m buying, though. I think Movelor’s right about the quality of the SEC, a conference with far and away the best average team but no demonstrated excellence at the top.
The reason I’m buying Georgia is that talent piece, coupled with that experience when it comes to peaking in January rather than September. Georgia has the athletes to beat anybody. Georgia has more experience with this kind of football than any other program besides Ohio State (Alabama hasn’t done it under DeBoer). Right now, Georgia isn’t as good as even Texas Tech. But in a month and a half? I’d take the Dawgs.
6. Mississippi: 4%
Mississippi wasn’t great already. Then, their head coach left. Then, they drew Georgia in the second round. Georgia might know Mississippi better than Mississippi’s own staff.
7. Miami: 3%
Miami isn’t a serious contender, but at this number, I’d take them. Miami’s issue isn’t talent, and it’s only partly depth. Miami’s issue is focus. That’s why they lost those two horrible losses this year. That’s why they did something similar last year. This is not a university that can keep its athletes committed to the process.
Thankfully for Miami, that’s a bigger issue in the dog days of October than under the bright lights of December. Expect Miami to show up ready when they get to College Station. Then, if Ohio State falters? Anything can happen.
(The other concern for Miami is a Mario Cristobal brainfart. He doesn’t match up well with the more serious contenders in the department of game management.)
8. Alabama: 2%
Alabama’s got the talent for it, and for that reason, I’d buy at this price. Their upside is right there with Georgia and Ohio State, and six weeks is enough time to transform an underachieving team into a competent machine. I will say, though: This team is not very good right now. If Alabama played a neutral-site game this weekend, Movelor would have them an underdog against any of Vanderbilt, Texas, and Utah, not to mention Notre Dame and seven playoff teams.
9. Texas A&M: 1.3%
If every team got to only play offense, with some neutral party serving as the all-time defense, I’d be interested in Texas A&M’s chance. Since the College Football Playoff involves things like tackling, however, I’m not sure 1-in-100 isn’t too generous to these Aggies.
(This should really change the longer Mike Elko stays in College Station. Look out for A&M next year.)
10. Oklahoma: 1.1%
I’m selling here. If you combined Oklahoma’s defense with Texas A&M’s offense, you’d have a team that might compete with Ohio State. But that’s not how this works.
11. James Madison: 0.06%
I’ll buy here, but I want to be clear that a 1-in-1,667 chance is very, very long odds. Bob Chesney knows how to coach as an underdog. That’s the rationale. You knew we couldn’t make it through this whole post without bringing up the first half of South Dakota State vs. Holy Cross in 2022.
12. Tulane: 0.00%
This is not a price, so I can neither buy nor sell. Our model didn’t see Tulane win the national championship in any of its last 10,000 simulations. To be fair, though, Lane Kiffin-less Mississippi might be a good first round draw.
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To summarize, I would…
- Buy Ohio State at 28%
- Buy Oregon at 16%
- Buy Georgia at 9%
- Buy Miami at 3%
- Buy Alabama at 2%
- Buy James Madison at 0.06%
- Sell The Field at 42%
Make of that what you will.
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