Do you try to entertain or do you try to win a World Series? Always a tough decision.
***
What Happened
Atlanta 2, Houston 0
For the second time this postseason, Ian Anderson dodged trouble, walking three but managing contact well enough to get through five innings on 76 pitches without allowing a hit. At that point, Brian Snitker pulled him, and…what else was he supposed to do? Snitker had a chance to make it a 2-1 series, with potent bullpen options at his disposal and Anderson in line to potentially start Game 7 should this series get that far. He gave his team the best chance to do that. The bullpen delivered. Grumps gonna grump.
The Heroes
Win Probability Added leaders, from FanGraphs:
- Anderson (0.29)
What It Means
Atlanta’s firmly in the driver’s seat again, but as was the case after Game 1, if they don’t win tonight it flips back to a narrow Houston advantage.
Other Notes
- Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler, and Travis d’Arnaud were all on base twice for Atlanta. d’Arnaud doubled and homered.
- Austin Riley’s third-inning double plated the deciding run.
- Alex Bregman was on base twice for the Astros.
***
Tonight:
The Basics
Where: Truist Park
When: 8:09 PM EDT
Broadcast: FOX
Starting Pitchers: Dylan Lee (ATL); Zack Greinke (HOU)
Odds: ATL -106; HOU -104; o/u 8½ (o -115) [English translation: Atlanta’s juuuuuust more than 50% likely to win; the expected number of runs scored is about 8.6]
The Details
The Astros are going with Greinke again after he struggled in Game 4 of the ALCS. He’s had a storied career, it’s not going great right now, they don’t have a lot of better options. For Atlanta, it’s Dylan Lee, at least to open. The lefty was cut by the Marlins this spring, but in a purely relief role, he managed a 2.61 FIP and 1.54 ERA over 46.2 innings at AAA. He came up in September to make two outings, but this will be his first start since 2017 in single-A (barring spring/winter/fall games).
For Atlanta, there’s about four innings well-covered if they can get there, which could be stretched to five or six if necessary. All four of those guys pitched last night, but none threw too many pitches, and each was going on two days of rest. Still, the more innings Drew Smyly and Jesse Chavez can eat once Lee exits, the better for the home team.
For Houston, the furthest back end is stronger, but the innings before Ryan Pressly aren’t. There’s plenty of confidence in Kendall Graveman, and he was strong over the regular season, but his sample size of strong performance is small enough that it’s unclear how reliable he really is, statistically speaking. He, like Atlanta’s guns, threw last night.
The Stars
Don’t expect anything sensational from Lee. An inning or two, that’s all his job is. Instead, watch those bullpens. And maybe one last soaring start from Greinke, on the biggest of stages.
