The Brewers and Cardinals don’t play one another today, but they are, for all practical purposes, the only two teams in competition. Yes, there are draft slot considerations in play, but in a league in which the draft isn’t immediately impactful, those are receiving deservedly little attention. It’s Milwaukee vs. St. Louis, with the Rockies and Cubs as proxies.
Should the Cardinals beat the Cubs, with ace Jack Flaherty on the mound against the Cubs’ bullpen and bullpen only, St. Louis will be the NL Central champions. Should they lose, it’s up to the Brewers to tie things by defeating the Rockies—a challenge they’ll approach with Adrian Houser on the hill opposing Jeff Hoffman.
Both the Brewers and Cardinals are justifiably favored rather heavily in Las Vegas: The Brewers’ odds sit at -175, implying a win probability of 62.1% when combined with the Rockies’ +157; the Cardinals’ odds are at -280, implying a win probability of 70.9% when combined with the Cubs’ +230. But should the unexpected happen, and should the Brewers tie the Cardinals—an event Vegas is deeming something like 18.1% likely to occur—the ripples will be felt across the National League playoff picture.
In the event of a tie, the Brewers will fly to St. Louis tonight and play the Cardinals in a tiebreaker game to decide the division tomorrow (the Cardinals would host this game because they beat the Brewers more times this year than the Brewers beat them). The winner of that game—the NL Central champion—would take two days off before meeting Atlanta in Game 1 of the NLDS. The loser would immediately fly to Washington, DC to square off with the Nationals in the NL Wild Card Game Tuesday night.
Here’s how each team is approaching the situation, and what’s at stake for the other National League playoff clubs:
What the Brewers Are Doing
The Brewers are in the tricky position of not controlling their fate entering the day, and they seem to be approaching it right now as business as usual, starting Houser instead of getting what they can from a still rehabilitating Brandon Woodruff, who’s thrown only four innings since returning a little less than two weeks ago—two on the 17th, two on the 22nd. Houser has a 3.97 FIP on the season, and a 3.57 in the metric since becoming a full-time starter at the end of July. Woodruff has a 3.01 FIP on the year and has dominated in those four innings since coming back (13 batters faced, seven strikeouts, one walk, no hits), but he hasn’t faced more than seven batters in an outing since his return.
It’s possible the Brewers are starting Houser because they believe he gives them the best chance to win. It’s also possible they’re holding Woodruff back because they’re anticipating a Cardinals’ victory over Chicago and they want Woodruff to pitch in the Wild Card Game. Another possibility is that they want Woodruff to pitch in the tiebreaker game should it occur, and they’re willing to lower their chances of making that game happen in order to increase their chances of winning it if it does happen. Finally, it’s possible—and probably the most likely thought process here—that they’re going to be watching the scoreboard today and, should the situation warrant it, are ready to use Woodruff as their top righty out of the ‘pen.
If the Brewers do force a tiebreaker, and they do use Woodruff today, Jordan Lyles (4.64 FIP) would be in line to start the tiebreaker game. Chase Anderson (4.84 FIP) is behind him in the rotation. Zach Davies (4.56 FIP, but 3.55 ERA) might also be an option for Tuesday, in the event they both force the tiebreaker game and lose it. Davies only threw 68 pitches Friday, so starting on three days’ rest would be plausible.
The Brewers have a good chance, but they’ve botched a better one. Losses the last two nights—with last night’s coming in troubling fashion on a combined Pomeranz/Hader/Matt Albers blown 2-0 lead—have set up a nightmarish scenario in which the Brewers spend their pitching forcing a tiebreaker and losing it, setting up Davies & Tired Bullpen vs. Scherzer & Strasburg in D.C. But even though that scenario is daunting, having the chance to win the NL Central tomorrow, take two days off, and enter the NLDS ready for Atlanta makes it worth taking the risk and using all options today and possibly tomorrow. The Nationals are a half-game back of the Astros for the best record in baseball since the beginning of Memorial Day Weekend. The Dodgers are tied with them over that stretch. Nobody wants to try to deal with playing both if it can be avoided.
What the Cardinals Are Doing
The Cardinals would have preferred to use bottom-tier arms today. But they didn’t give themselves that opportunity, losing each of their last four games. Instead, they’re using their ace: Flaherty. Flaherty has, since his final start before the All-Star Break, been the third-best pitcher in baseball by fWAR, wedged between Gerrit Cole and Jacob deGrom. On the season, he has a 3.52 FIP, one of the twenty best among qualified pitchers. He hasn’t allowed a run in eight of his last thirteen starts, three of which lasted eight innings. He gives them their best chance to win any game. But if they lose today and the Brewers win, they can’t use him tomorrow, and if they lose tomorrow, they can’t use him Tuesday in D.C., and even if they win today, they probably won’t use him in Game One against Atlanta on Thursday.
St. Louis already made the interesting decision to skip Miles Mikolas (4.28 FIP) in the rotation yesterday, putting Adam Wainwright (4.36 FIP) on the mound instead. If they have to play a tiebreaker game, Mikolas is now the most likely starter of said game. If they both play and lose a tiebreaker game, they’re in the unenviable position of choosing between Michael Wacha (5.62 FIP) or a three-days’-rest Dakota Hudson (4.93 FIP, but 3.35 ERA) in the Wild Card Game.
Should they win, they can reset their playoff rotation, getting three days off before the NLDS begins in Atlanta. Flaherty can start Game Two, with Wainwright or Hudson seemingly the Game One starter. Even if they play a tiebreaker game tomorrow, winning it would allow them to do the same, and as far as pitchers go, a team could do worse than Mikolas in a tiebreaker. He’s not an ace, but he’s solid, and their bullpen’s good enough to compete with Milwaukee’s.
How This Affects the Nationals
The Nationals are in a relatively good place regardless of what happens or doesn’t happen in the Central. They’ve done their job, recovering from a woeful start to earn a Wild Card appearance. No, they didn’t catch the Braves, but they’ll finish with either 92 or 93 regular season wins, and they’ll have done it comfortably enough to let them have two of their three top arms available on Tuesday, rendering their discomforting bullpen a little less necessary.
Still, of course, facing Davies & Tired Bullpen or Short-Rest Hudson/Wacha is more appetizing than facing Woodruff & Fresh Bullpen. They want the tiebreaker game to happen.
How This Affects the Braves
Similarly to the Nationals, the Braves are in a good place no matter what goes down between the Cards and the Crew. They’ve earned the flexibility to shape their postseason rotation as they see fit. They, like the Nationals, would prefer a little chaos, but they’ve already scored a nice advantage in not having to face a normal-rest Flaherty in Game One.
How This Affects the Dodgers
In a weird way, the Dodgers probably don’t actually want a tiebreaker game to happen. As was said, they have the same record as the Nationals since May 24th. They would strongly prefer to play a Brewers team with a near-zero run differential and no Christian Yelich rather than deal with the Scherzer/Strasburg/Patrick Corbin combination (in some order) and a lineup featuring Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto. They want the Brewers to win the Wild Card Game. They want the Brewers (and/or the Cubs) to lose today.
