Eleven days ago, we wrote: “UConn and the Big 12 (For Real This Time).” That was the title of the blog post. The contents did not contradict it. We read the reports on UConn and the Big 12 and thought the pair’s proposed solution—UConn would join soon in most sports, but not quite yet for football—would finally make the deal go down.
We were wrong.
Today, Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark and UConn athletic director David Benedict released statements sharing that though the sides had indeed worked towards an agreement, that agreement was not reached. Reports hold that not enough Big 12 university presidents wanted UConn just yet. Some reports pointed to uncertainty over the House v. NCAA settlement as one reason for hesitation. The old, We really don’t know what things are going to look like in four years.
Few are mourning the failed connection. Big East basketball is better with UConn, Big 12 basketball is still great without UConn, and the college football landscape is largely unchanged. The saddest parties are likely Yormark—who views UConn as a key piece in his plan for long-term Big 12 health, giving the league relevance in New York City and even more undeniable basketball supremacy—and UConn supporters who understand the impact bigtime football can have on an institution. Nationally, college sports fans are largely ok with this. The old, Let us get used to USC playing in the Big Ten.
What might be most interesting about this change, and most impactful in the long run, is how openly the two sides acknowledged it. The process was rather transparent. Reports on the outcome came directly from the leaders of the parties involved. Usually, we wouldn’t hear about the meetings, at least not from a trustworthy source, and we certainly wouldn’t get press releases. This isn’t just a departure from the “old” way of doing things. It’s a departure from the recent way of doing things, the 2021 and 2022 way of doing things, when both the USC/UCLA Big Ten move and the Texas/Oklahoma SEC move happened instantaneously, at least from the perspective of the viewing public. With those two moves, there was one waft of smoke and then a wall of flame. With UConn and the Big 12, we can all observe the thing smoldering. It has public viewing hours.
Seeing the dalliance so clearly is a little unpleasant. If we knew of every single proposed conference realignment, we might be exhausted by it. It’s also refreshing. It’s nice to know what’s happening, and direct statements fill a void which would otherwise be filled by rumormongers, semi-anonymous online speculators attempting to guess correctly and then pretend they had inside information all along. For UConn, there’s probably a leverage play being made here: The Big East better keep their best program happy, or the Huskies could leave town. For Yormark, the objective is less obvious. Why is Yormark being so public about this all?
So far, Yormark has a 1–0 career record in realignment battles, with one still playing out. After Bob Bowlsby saved the Big 12 from getting picked apart by the Pac-12 or ESPN after Texas and Oklahoma left, it was Yormark’s turn. When USC and UCLA left the Pac-12, Yormark beat Larry Scott in his courtship of the conference’s middle class, correctly identifying that after USC and UCLA moved east, there was only room for a Power Four, not a Power Five, then making sure his league was strengthened rather than letting a weakened Pac-10 slowly slide into mid-majordom, potentially dragging the Big 12 and ACC with it.
In both Bowlsby and Yormark’s Pac-12 battles, transparency served the Big 12 well. Bowlsby and the eight remaining schools moved rather quickly after UT and OU departed, circling the wagons, committing to one another, and moving to add good football programs before the Pac-12 could get its act together. They made little secret of what they were doing, projecting strength and capitalizing on a glut of mid-majors hungry for a power conference chance. When Yormark’s turn came after USC and UCLA left the Pac-12 on the side of the road, he called a spade a spade, his “open for business” line communicating to the Pac-12’s middle class that he, like everybody else, knew they couldn’t continue as a conference, and that the Big 12 would be a good home.
That success makes me think Yormark’s UConn transparency might just be a habit at this point. It’s terribly unusual to people like ACC commissioner Jim Phillips, but it’s normal to Yormark. It’s what worked for the Big 12 in 2021 and worked again in 2022 and 2023. In other words: While UConn can use publicity for leverage, this might just be how the Big 12 operates. Its identity has become one of pragmatism, a pragmatism well-suited to being that high-major middle-class organization giving so many university athletic departments a home. The pragmatic Big 12 is short on tradition, but it has a big geographic footprint and strength in numbers. It’s easy to see this Big 12 becoming a home for the well-off common man, for power conference schools without major academic prestige or legendary college football mystique or Nike connections which make them iconic even if their football programs routinely disappoint. If the ACC does break apart, the Big 12 will provide a logical home for schools of value who aren’t wanted by the Big Ten and SEC. If the Big Ten and SEC elite ever ditch their little brothers, those little brothers could find a logical home in the Big 12. This is speculation and conjecture. As evidenced by my performance eleven days ago, I am no realignment oracle. But this future makes sense, and maybe that’s the point of Yormark’s transparency: By always talking about realignment, he’s letting schools know the Big 12 is active and growing and a stable place to call home.
How do the old Big 12 schools feel about this, though? How do Yormark’s bosses feel about Yormark? Clearly, they disagree with him about the wisdom of adding Connecticut. But they respected him enough to take the meeting, right? That’s what we can take away from this all?
Yormark is new to college sports, but his bosses are not. There’s a chance he’s rubbing some traditionalists the wrong way. It’s only a chance. We haven’t seen evidence of it. But it’s a chance, and something to watch out for if more of these Yormark courtships end without a marriage.
Will Yormark’s UConn courtship end without a marriage? I’ll include part of what I wrote a week and a half back, but at this point, I really don’t know. It seems what needs to happen is some conditional agreement, something which gives each side the power to opt out. That, or they need to wait until UConn football proves itself or media rights are up for negotiation again. I said this last Sunday, but that conditional agreement has to come from somewhere. University presidents are unlikely to suggest it on their own. It has to come from Yormark. If he wants UConn, he needs to find the middle ground that makes the most sense. In the meantime, the rest of us are very content with the current Big East Tournament spectacle, complete with UConn at Madison Square Garden.
**
UConn football might be worth a fair paycheck by 2031. Thanks to the remaining value of cable, UConn’s New York-adjacent location means the school doesn’t need as good a football team as Kansas State’s to generate advertising and subscription revenue for cable providers, revenue which eventually works its way back to the networks and then to the schools. Similarly, the Big 12 presidents could theoretically make some terms conditional: They could say, “UConn can join in football in 2031 if they make three bowl games from 2026 through 2029.” They could try to add UConn with the understanding that eventual football membership is likely but not guaranteed. They could even cross the partial revenue share Rubicon.
…
The question for UConn is how certain the football situation needs to be for this to be worth the jump. The decision is harder if there’s a chance UConn doesn’t get to join the Big 12 in football in 2031, or if there’s a risk that the Big 12 is a weaker league at that point (if a new Big 12 power starts dominating, the Big Ten or SEC might come calling). Leaving to play basketball against Kansas and Arizona is justifiable for the Huskies, who enjoy all those historic ties to the Big East but are more similar institutionally to the Big 12’s state schools. Leaving to play basketball against UNC and Duke would probably be an easier pill for East Coast college basketball traditionalists to swallow, but that’s not what’s on the table. The Big 12 is on the table.
…
UConn has invested so much at this point into FBS football. I don’t think the university views those investments as a sunk cost. At some point, UConn is going to have to decide whether they’re a power conference school or a power conference basketball school. They seem to want to be the former, not just the latter. This is a path to finally make it happen.
On the Big 12 side, it’s complicated. It’s easy for us to throw out those conditional ideas presidents would probably like. It’s harder for presidents—people whose primary job is not at all to navigate conference realignment—to come up with those ideas on their own. Still, the fact they keep letting Yormark bring them UConn proposals probably signifies that they’re open to it. He’s worn them down. If he can make them confident enough that they won’t lose money, UConn should be his.
