The National League playoff race, which had shown signs of dormancy in recent weeks, sprung to life over the last two days as the Brewers tied the Cubs in the standings while simultaneously losing one of the best players in baseball for the rest of the year.
As it stands, the Dodgers and Braves are safe. The Dodgers have clinched, and now turn to holding off the Braves for home field advantage, which may or may not be desirable because it could come with having to play the Nationals in the NLDS instead of most likely the Cardinals. The Braves have not clinched, but FanGraphs has them 100.0% likely to make the playoffs, which means that if there’s a way for them to cough up a 14-game lead over their final 17 games, the FanGraphs simulations haven’t found it.
Comparably safe are the Nationals, with a 97.0% playoff probability (all the rest of these come from FanGraphs, but I’ll stop saying it to avoid obnoxious redundancy). They lead the Cubs and Brewers by three and a half games, so it’s plausible they’d have to play the wild card game on the road, but wherever it takes place, the wild card game is what they’re headed for in all but the rarest of circumstances.
Then, there are the Cardinals, with their 90.9% playoff probability. They only have a 76.5% chance of winning the NL Central, though. Which is very good—about 76.5% better than many, including me, expected them to have at this point in the year. But is far from a sure bet. They’re nine games back of Atlanta, so it’s near impossible that they’ll join the fight for home field advantage.
The next tier is the tied Cubs and Brewers. Entering today, the Cubs led the Brewers in playoff chances, with a 49.9% chance compared to the Brewers’ 33.4%. In the NL Central picture, the Cubs come in at 16.3% likely to win it, with the Brewers at only 7.2%. We’ll get back to these guys, but that’s where it was at before Milwaukee’s first pitch down in Miami (they lead 3-2 in the seventh as I edit this).
Behind those six are three teams that certainly have a chance, but don’t by any means have a good one. The Mets (19.9% playoff odds), Diamondbacks (5.3%), and Phillies (3.6%) were two, two and a half, and two games back of the Cubs/Brewers, respectively, entering today. Each would have to pass both the Cubs and the Brewers while also managing to finish ahead of the other two. It’s possible. It isn’t likely.
So, we’ll focus on three teams: the three in the Central.
The Cardinals
After finishing their series in Colorado this afternoon (they lead 3-1 in the second as I publish this), the Cardinals have a tough stretch: three at home against Milwaukee, three at home against Washington, four at Wrigley Field against the Cubs, three in Phoenix against the Diamondbacks, and three at home against the Cubs. They get to spend the majority of the time at home, but after today, it’s playoff contenders the rest of the way.
On the mound, St. Louis has cobbled together an effective staff: the fifth-best in baseball by ERA. Their greatest strength is their bullpen, with its 3.71 ERA and 3.85 FIP, both best in the MLB. Giovanny Gallegos, John Brebbia, and Carlos Martinez all have FIP’s under three, and John Gant isn’t far off. The unit’s done the improbable since Jordan Hick went down in June, and gotten much, much better since that calamity. Especially impressive is the fact they’ve achieved these results even while Andrew Miller’s been worth -0.5 fWAR on the year.
While the bullpen’s better than the rotation, the rotation is far from bad. Cardinals starters are sixth in the MLB by ERA, and though they’re only 14th in FIP, a lot of that problem comes from Michael Wacha’s 5.79 in the metric. Wacha’s likely to make three starts the rest of the way. Not ideal, but far from the largest concern for a team with a four-game division lead with 17 to play. Dakota Hudson has a massive ERA-FIP gap, coming in at 3.38 in the former and 4.96 in the latter, but since the beginning of August, his FIP’s been 3.86, indicating he might have addressed underlying issues before regression could catch up to him. And at the top of the line, Jack Flaherty’s been the best pitcher in the NL since the All-Star Break, with a 0.76 ERA, 2.19 FIP, and more than a quarter of an fWAR a start (3.0 fWAR, 11 starts).
Offensively, the Cardinals aren’t much, with their 92 wRC+ putting them in the bottom half of baseball. But again, things have been better since the All-Star Break, as they’ve come in at 97 in the metric, better than the Cubs by two and only one off the Brewers’ pace, which has relied on a .313 BABIP that shouldn’t hold up.
In other words, while the Cardinals have the toughest schedule remaining, they’re the most equipped to handle it. And at least in the division picture, they have a chance to bury one of their two foes this weekend.
The Cubs
Next on the list is the Cubs, who looked like they were about to edge away as August dawned only to find themselves with whiplash as the Cardinals blew past. They’re narrow favorites in San Diego this afternoon, then they host Pittsburgh for three, Cincinnati for three, and St. Louis for four before visiting Pittsburgh for three and finishing with three in St. Louis. It’s a manageable slate: while the Reds are tricky, they’re a more advantageous opponent than the Nationals, and it’s helpful to have ten of the 17 at home. Plus, opportunities are there against the Cardinals. Winning each of those two series would erase three quarters of the four-game gap.
The Cubs’ bullpen, though seventh in ERA on the year, is a question mark. It’s gotten by with a 4.48 FIP, 15th in baseball, and it’s currently without Craig Kimbrel. Joe Maddon is having to try pretty much everything to get outs right now, with the best options seemingly Rowan Wick (28.0 IP, 2.57 ERA, 2.53 FIP) and Kyle Ryan (54.1 IP, 2.98 ERA, 3.25 FIP). Those are fine options, but it gets thinner from there, and neither has the sort of track record one would ideally have in a relief arm this time of year.
Starting pitching is a relative strength. While they lack a no-doubt ace, which positions them poorly for the wild card game, they have enough depth across the staff to feel good about their chances in each of their remaining games. It’s possible they won’t be an underdog the rest of the way, and if they are an underdog, it would most likely be only that last weekend in St. Louis, by which time all might be decided anyway.
The offense is a problem. As mentioned, it’s been the worst of these three since the All-Star Break, and while the addition of Nicholas Castellanos has been enormous (160 wRC+ since joining the club), they’ll be without Javy Báez until at least October, if they can get there. Kyle Schwarber has been very good these last two months (133 wRC+), as have Anthony Rizzo (145) and David Bote (137), but Bote’s .429 BABIP is unlikely to hold up (fortunately, Schwarber’s .211 isn’t either, which could foreshadow an even bigger boom out of the left fielder). Willson Contreras is working his way back to full strength, but he’s clearly not back to being able to catch every day. And while Kris Bryant has been fine (111 wRC+ since the Break), the Cubs need more from him. Jason Heyward has regressed (92 wRC+ since the Break). Addison Russell wasn’t doing much before taking that pitch to the head (67 post-Break wRC+). Ian Happ hasn’t been great (83 post-Break wRC+). Basically, the Cubs are having to rely on Rizzo, Castellanos, Schwarber, Bryant, and a lot of mixing and matching for the final half of the lineup. It’s not a great place to be. But, then again, they can’t complain about injury when the Brewers are suddenly Yelich-less.
The Brewers
Christian Yelich is the big story here. His 7.7 season-to-date fWAR translates to 0.8 over 17 games—a full win and loss. Trent Grisham—the team’s top prospect with Keston Hiura graduated, and also Yelich’s most likely primary replacement—has been perfectly average at the plate, with a 100 wRC+ in 116 PA’s. So, all else equal, the Brewers need one win more out of the rest of their team than they otherwise would have.
There are still some potent offensive pieces here, but Hiura’s nursing a hamstring injury, and Yasmani Grandal/Mike Moustakas/Eric Thames/Ryan Braun will only get a team so far. Without Yelich, this offense is comparable to that of the Cubs, with less upside. Without Hiura, it also has a more clearly weaker heart of the order.
On the mound, Adrian Houser’s performance since returning to the rotation has been huge: a 2.81 ERA and 3.45 FIP over eight starts, averaging over five innings per start. But this is still a team that relies heavily on its bullpen, and beyond Josh Hader, that bullpen’s suddenly requesting heavy contributions from Junior Guerra (4.66 FIP), Alex Claudio (4.96), Matt Albers (4.32), and Drew Pomeranz (2.51 as a reliever, but 4.95 overall). Even Hader hasn’t been as effective a weapon as he was last year, though his 2.97 FIP is still, of course, very good, even if it’s only 17th out of qualified relievers, instead of seventh like it was in 2018. As a unit, the Milwaukee ‘pen had the fourth-best FIP and fWAR in 2018, but is eleventh and ninth in those two categories to date.
Working in their favor, the Brewers have no opponents with winning records after this weekend. They’ll finish today’s game in Miami, play three in St. Louis, host the Padres for four, host the Pirates for three, then finish with three in Cincinnati followed by three in Colorado. It isn’t a bad slate, and if the Crew can pick up a game on the Cardinals over this weekend, they’ll have a shot at not just making the playoffs, but actually winning the division. The tricky thing will be scoring enough runs to do that. And, of course, of all the playoff contenders in the NL, the Brewers might the least likely to do much should they make it past September.
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Overall, it’s a less clear-cut playoff picture than that of the AL, where the divisions are more clearly wrapped up and the wild card race is down to three teams and two spots. Like that race, though, this one hinges primarily on three teams, and both challengers get at least one more series against the current king of the raft. The Braves/Dodgers home field race is intriguing, though it’ll likely go the Dodgers’ way, as is the prospect of the Nationals in October. Since Memorial Day Weekend began, the Nats are 61-33, just one game worse than the Braves and half a game better than the Dodgers. They also field the most playoff-specific build of a pitching staff, given it’s the most top-heavy of any in the field. Neither the Braves or Dodgers will choke on purpose, but the narrative’s there for anyone who wants it, as facing Strasburg, Corbin, and a post-wild card start Scherzer in the first three games of the NLDS sounds like the least fun an offense could have in the NL (and possibly the AL—the combined fWAR of Scherzer/Strasburg/Corbin is only 0.1 behind that of Cole/Verlander/Greinke, and is about a win and a half higher than that of the latter if extrapolated over 200 innings for each pitcher).
Get ready for some fun. If you’re in a position to call it that.
