Bowl Projections: Week 14, 2023

Our bowl projections are live through Week 13’s games, and we’ve included them below, with our full ratings and probabilities through Week 13 also included below (for archival purposes). As always, these come from our college football model. Notes:

  • Barring a surprise in tonight’s rankings, the playoff field is clear if market favorites win this weekend (we go off of our model’s projections, but we also put the most likely playoff teams in our projected field, and while our model has Alabama slightly favored over Georgia, it has Georgia as playoff-likelier). Depending on which of Michigan and Georgia is ultimately ranked ahead of the other, there’s a scenario where Michigan could go to the Sugar Bowl and Georgia could go to the Rose Bowl, but our guess is that the rankings work out in a way that allows tradition to be followed, with at least the Sugar Bowl keeping its SEC tie and the Rose Bowl keeping its Big Ten tie, if not a full-on Big Ten vs. Pac-12 Rose Bowl.
  • We have SMU as the Group of Five representative because even if SMU remains behind Liberty in the rankings this week, our model has them favored over Tulane and expects that win to push them past Liberty, who faces a weaker opponent in New Mexico State (and plays at home).
  • We’re trusting Brett McMurphy’s reporting regarding Navy’s bowl eligibility situation, which holds that Navy is not bowl eligible and that the 5–7 team with the best APR will instead go bowling. That team is Minnesota.
  • Teams who’ve clinched or accepted a specific place in a bowl are marked with an asterisk (*).
  • We don’t have any inside information on bowl preferences and priorities. We’re only going off of what we’ve seen reported, then using our best judgment from there. Our model is good at forecasting eventual bowl eligibility and eventual final rankings, but at this point in the year, we’re admittedly not as well-equipped as other bowl projectors. Getting a better handle on the bowl ecosystem is an offseason priority of ours.
  • Teams entering the bowl mix: Virginia Tech, Marshall, California.
  • Teams exiting the bowl mix: Colorado State, Illinois, Mississippi State.
  • At 29th in Movelor’s rankings, TCU is the best team missing a bowl game.
  • At 114th in Movelor’s rankings, Eastern Michigan is the worst team qualified for a bowl game.
  • We’ll update these tomorrow in response to the rankings tonight, provided those rankings change anything in our forecast.
DateBowlTeam 1Team 2T1 ConferenceT2 Conference
1/1/24Rose Bowl (CFP Semifinal)MichiganOregonBig TenPac-12
1/1/24Sugar Bowl (CFP Semifinal)GeorgiaFlorida StateSECACC
1/1/24Fiesta BowlTexasWashingtonBig 12Pac-12
1/1/24ReliaQuest BowlLSUNotre DameSECFBS Independents
1/1/24Citrus BowlMississippiIowaSECBig Ten
12/30/23Orange BowlLouisvilleOhio StateACCBig Ten
12/30/23Peach BowlAlabamaPenn StateSECBig Ten
12/30/23Music City BowlMarylandAuburnBig TenSEC
12/30/23Arizona BowlBowling Green StateWyomingMACMountain West
12/29/23Cotton BowlMissouriSMUSECAAC
12/29/23Gator BowlClemsonTennesseeACCSEC
12/29/23Sun BowlDukeUtahACCPac-12
12/29/23Liberty BowlKansasKentuckyBig 12SEC
12/28/23Pinstripe BowlGeorgia TechNorthwesternACCBig Ten
12/28/23Pop-Tarts BowlNorth CarolinaOklahoma StateACCBig 12
12/28/23Fenway BowlBoston CollegeRiceACCAAC
12/28/23Alamo BowlOklahomaArizonaBig 12Pac-12
12/27/23Duke’s Mayo BowlMiami (FL)TulaneACCAAC
12/27/23Military BowlVirginia TechUTSAACCAAC
12/27/23Holiday BowlOregon StateNC StatePac-12ACC
12/27/23Texas BowlKansas StateTexas A&MBig 12SEC
12/26/23Guaranteed Rate BowlWest VirginiaRutgersBig 12Big Ten
12/26/23Quick Lane BowlOhioMinnesotaMACBig Ten
12/26/23First Responder BowlUCFLouisianaBig 12Sun Belt
12/23/23Hawaii BowlJacksonville StateAir ForceConference USAMountain West
12/23/23Armed Forces BowlTexas TechTexas StateBig 12Sun Belt
12/23/2368 Ventures BowlUSFCoastal CarolinaAACSun Belt
12/23/23Birmingham BowlTroyMemphisSun BeltAAC
12/23/23Las Vegas BowlWisconsinUSCBig TenPac-12
12/23/23Famous Idaho Potato BowlToledoUNLVMACMountain West
12/23/23Camellia BowlSan Jose StateSouth AlabamaMountain WestSun Belt
12/22/23Gasparilla BowlSyracuseAppalachian StateACCSun Belt
12/21/23Boca Raton BowlNorthern IllinoisGeorgia SouthernMACSun Belt
12/19/23Frisco BowlEastern MichiganArkansas StateMACSun Belt
12/18/23Famous Toastery BowlNew Mexico StateMiami (OH)Conference USAMAC
12/16/23Myrtle Beach BowlWestern KentuckyMarshallConference USASun Belt
12/16/23Independence BowlIowa StateCaliforniaBig 12Pac-12
12/16/23New Orleans BowlLibertyJames MadisonConference USASun Belt
12/16/23Celebration BowlHoward*Florida A&MMEACSWAC
12/16/23LA BowlFresno StateUCLAMountain WestPac-12
12/16/23New Mexico BowlGeorgia StateBoise StateSun BeltMountain West
12/16/23Cure BowlUtah StateOld DominionMountain WestSun Belt
RankTeamMovelorConferenceAverage Final CFP RankingMake PlayoffNational ChampionshipExpected WinsBowl EligibilityMake Conference ChampionshipWin Conference
1Michigan45.0Big Ten293.7%29.4%12.9100.0%100.0%93.2%
4Georgia41.3SEC288.3%33.2%12.5100.0%100.0%45.7%
10Florida State33.0ACC466.5%5.2%12.7100.0%100.0%70.5%
5Oregon41.1Pac-12464.4%10.7%11.7100.0%100.0%72.6%
2Ohio State43.6Big Ten520.0%8.2%11.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
7Texas37.3Big 12621.5%5.3%11.8100.0%100.0%82.2%
13Washington32.0Pac-12625.6%2.1%12.3100.0%100.0%27.4%
3Alabama42.8SEC620.1%5.9%11.5100.0%100.0%54.3%
14Missouri29.7SEC90.0%0.0%10.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
6Penn State40.6Big Ten100.0%0.0%10.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
20Mississippi26.2SEC110.0%0.0%10.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
11Oklahoma32.9Big 12130.0%0.0%10.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
8LSU36.3SEC130.0%0.0%9.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
15Arizona29.3Pac-12150.0%0.0%9.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
19Oregon State27.2Pac-12170.0%0.0%8.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
23Louisville24.7ACC180.0%0.0%10.3100.0%100.0%29.5%
9Notre Dame36.3FBS Independents190.0%0.0%9.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
26NC State24.3ACC190.0%0.0%9.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
17Tennessee28.7SEC220.0%0.0%8.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
33Iowa23.1Big Ten220.0%0.0%10.1100.0%100.0%6.8%
16Clemson29.2ACC220.0%0.0%8.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
31Oklahoma State23.4Big 12220.0%0.0%9.2100.0%100.0%17.9%
43Tulane19.4American220.0%0.0%11.4100.0%100.0%44.5%
63Toledo15.2MAC230.0%0.0%11.6100.0%100.0%61.6%
24SMU24.5American240.0%0.0%10.6100.0%100.0%55.5%
60Liberty15.6Conference USA250.0%0.0%12.7100.0%100.0%70.1%
30James Madison23.5Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%11.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
35Troy21.5Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%10.7100.0%100.0%71.0%
80Miami (OH)10.7MACNR0.0%0.0%10.4100.0%100.0%38.5%
78New Mexico State11.0Conference USANR0.0%0.0%10.3100.0%100.0%29.9%
58UNLV15.7Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%9.5100.0%100.0%50.6%
62Memphis15.4AmericanNR0.0%0.0%9.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
82Ohio10.2MACNR0.0%0.0%9.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
55Appalachian State16.0Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%8.3100.0%100.0%29.0%
12Kansas State32.3Big 12NR0.0%0.0%8.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
22Kansas25.3Big 12NR0.0%0.0%8.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
27Utah24.2Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%8.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
34West Virginia22.1Big 12NR0.0%0.0%8.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
47UTSA19.0AmericanNR0.0%0.0%8.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
51North Carolina18.4ACCNR0.0%0.0%8.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
66Air Force14.0Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%8.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
70Wyoming13.0Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%8.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
73Jacksonville State11.5Conference USANR0.0%0.0%8.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
79Fresno State10.9Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%8.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
49Boise State18.6Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%7.5100.0%100.0%49.4%
18Texas A&M28.0SECNR0.0%0.0%7.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
21Iowa State25.8Big 12NR0.0%0.0%7.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
28Maryland23.7Big TenNR0.0%0.0%7.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
32Kentucky23.4SECNR0.0%0.0%7.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
36Wisconsin21.5Big TenNR0.0%0.0%7.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
40USC20.6Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%7.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
41UCLA20.0Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%7.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
44Duke19.4ACCNR0.0%0.0%7.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
46Miami (FL)19.0ACCNR0.0%0.0%7.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
48Northwestern18.9Big TenNR0.0%0.0%7.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
53San Jose State16.8Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%7.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
87Bowling Green State8.3MACNR0.0%0.0%7.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
89Coastal Carolina7.6Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%7.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
95Texas State6.0Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%7.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
108Western Kentucky3.1Conference USANR0.0%0.0%7.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
25Auburn24.4SECNR0.0%0.0%6.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
37UCF21.3Big 12NR0.0%0.0%6.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
39Texas Tech20.7Big 12NR0.0%0.0%6.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
50Virginia Tech18.5ACCNR0.0%0.0%6.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
52California18.1Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%6.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
57Rutgers15.7Big TenNR0.0%0.0%6.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
64Georgia Tech15.2ACCNR0.0%0.0%6.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
71Syracuse12.3ACCNR0.0%0.0%6.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
76South Alabama11.3Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%6.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
83Louisiana9.9Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%6.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
92Rice6.6AmericanNR0.0%0.0%6.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
96Georgia State5.9Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%6.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
97Old Dominion5.7Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%6.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
100Utah State5.4Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%6.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
101Marshall4.7Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%6.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
102Boston College4.6ACCNR0.0%0.0%6.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
104USF4.4AmericanNR0.0%0.0%6.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
106Northern Illinois3.6MACNR0.0%0.0%6.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
107Arkansas State3.5Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%6.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
110Georgia Southern2.7Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%6.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
114Eastern Michigan0.8MACNR0.0%0.0%6.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
88Army8.1FBS IndependentsNR0.0%0.0%5.50.0%0.0%0.0%
90Navy7.3AmericanNR0.0%0.0%5.50.0%0.0%0.0%
29TCU23.6Big 12NR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%0.0%
38Florida20.7SECNR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%0.0%
42South Carolina19.7SECNR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%0.0%
45Washington State19.0Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%0.0%
54Illinois16.5Big TenNR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%0.0%
56Nebraska15.9Big TenNR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%0.0%
65BYU14.0Big 12NR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%0.0%
67Minnesota13.5Big TenNR0.0%0.0%5.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
68Mississippi State13.3SECNR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%0.0%
94North Texas6.2AmericanNR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%0.0%
113Colorado State1.0Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%0.0%
118Central Michigan-1.4MACNR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%0.0%
123Hawaii-3.4Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%0.0%
59Arkansas15.7SECNR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%0.0%
61Purdue15.4Big TenNR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%0.0%
69Michigan State13.0Big TenNR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%0.0%
77Wake Forest11.1ACCNR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%0.0%
81Houston10.3Big 12NR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%0.0%
85Colorado9.2Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%0.0%
93San Diego State6.4Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%0.0%
99Ball State5.5MACNR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%0.0%
103UAB4.5AmericanNR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%0.0%
105Florida Atlantic4.0AmericanNR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%0.0%
112Western Michigan2.5MACNR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%0.0%
115Tulsa0.4AmericanNR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%0.0%
116Middle Tennessee0.1Conference USANR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%0.0%
125New Mexico-5.6Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%0.0%
133FIU-13.5Conference USANR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%0.0%
72Indiana11.8Big TenNR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%0.0%
74Baylor11.5Big 12NR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%0.0%
75Pitt11.4ACCNR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%0.0%
84Virginia9.9ACCNR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%0.0%
86Cincinnati8.7Big 12NR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%0.0%
91Arizona State7.1Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%0.0%
111Stanford2.5Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%0.0%
117Southern Miss0.1Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%0.0%
119UTEP-1.5Conference USANR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%0.0%
120Buffalo-1.7MACNR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%0.0%
121UConn-2.5FBS IndependentsNR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%0.0%
122Sam Houston-3.1Conference USANR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%0.0%
126Charlotte-5.9AmericanNR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%0.0%
128Temple-7.5AmericanNR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%0.0%
130Louisiana Tech-8.4Conference USANR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%0.0%
132UMass-12.2FBS IndependentsNR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%0.0%
98East Carolina5.6AmericanNR0.0%0.0%2.00.0%0.0%0.0%
109Vanderbilt3.0SECNR0.0%0.0%2.00.0%0.0%0.0%
124Akron-4.4MACNR0.0%0.0%2.00.0%0.0%0.0%
127Nevada-6.6Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%2.00.0%0.0%0.0%
129Louisiana Monroe-8.4Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%2.00.0%0.0%0.0%
131Kent State-11.8MACNR0.0%0.0%1.00.0%0.0%0.0%
RankTeamMovelorConferenceProjected WinsNational Championship
1South Dakota State24.9MVFC12.954.8%
4Montana15.3Big Sky11.616.0%
2North Dakota State17.8MVFC9.910.5%
3Montana State15.4Big Sky8.99.4%
5Idaho7.5Big Sky9.02.5%
6Southern Illinois7.1MVFC8.71.7%
8South Dakota4.6MVFC9.81.2%
9Furman4.4Southern9.91.0%
7Villanova5.2CAA9.70.9%
10Richmond3.3CAA9.60.7%
17Albany1.0CAA9.70.4%
12Youngstown State2.9MVFC8.40.3%
22Delaware-0.8CAA9.20.2%
16Sacramento State1.4Big Sky8.40.1%
21Chattanooga-0.5Southern8.40.1%
20Mercer-0.3Southern9.00.1%
11Weber State3.0Big Sky6.00.0%
13UC Davis2.8Big Sky7.00.0%
14Illinois State2.3MVFC6.00.0%
15Incarnate Word1.9Southland8.00.0%
18Northern Iowa0.9MVFC6.00.0%
19Missouri State0.0MVFC4.00.0%
23Central Arkansas-1.0UAC7.00.0%
24North Dakota-1.3MVFC7.00.0%
25Yale-1.5Ivy7.00.0%
26Southern Utah-1.7UAC6.00.0%
27Tarleton-1.8UAC8.00.0%
28Austin Peay-1.8UAC9.00.0%
29Northern Arizona-2.0Big Sky5.00.0%
30Samford-2.1Southern6.00.0%
31New Hampshire-2.3CAA6.00.0%
32Elon-2.7CAA6.00.0%
33Holy Cross-2.9Patriot7.00.0%
34Abilene Christian-4.1UAC5.00.0%
35Harvard-4.2Ivy8.00.0%
36Eastern Kentucky-4.3UAC5.00.0%
37William & Mary-4.4CAA6.00.0%
38Western Carolina-5.1Southern7.00.0%
39Gardner-Webb-5.5Big South-OVC7.00.0%
40UT Martin-5.9Big South-OVC8.00.0%
41Dartmouth-6.4Ivy6.00.0%
42Nicholls-6.6Southland6.00.0%
43Lafayette-6.9Patriot9.00.0%
44Eastern Washington-7.1Big Sky4.00.0%
45Bryant-7.6Big South-OVC6.00.0%
46Princeton-8.2Ivy5.00.0%
47Rhode Island-8.4CAA6.00.0%
48Portland State-8.5Big Sky5.00.0%
49Florida A&M-9.1SWAC10.80.0%
50Southeast Missouri State-9.5Big South-OVC4.00.0%
51Southeastern Louisiana-9.6Southland3.00.0%
52Monmouth-9.8CAA4.00.0%
53North Carolina Central-9.9MEAC9.00.0%
54Penn-10.4Ivy6.00.0%
55Stephen F. Austin-11.4UAC3.00.0%
56Towson-11.6CAA5.00.0%
57Eastern Illinois-11.7Big South-OVC8.00.0%
58Kennesaw State-13.3FCS Independents3.00.0%
59Fordham-13.8Patriot6.00.0%
60Lamar-14.1Southland6.00.0%
61Campbell-14.3CAA5.00.0%
62Utah Tech-14.3UAC2.00.0%
63North Alabama-14.9UAC3.00.0%
64Wofford-14.9Southern2.00.0%
65Howard-15.2MEAC6.00.0%
66Saint Francis (PA)-15.4NEC4.00.0%
67Jackson State-15.5SWAC7.00.0%
68VMI-15.9Southern5.00.0%
69Idaho State-16.4Big Sky3.00.0%
70Indiana State-16.4MVFC1.00.0%
71Colgate-16.9Patriot6.00.0%
72Brown-17.1Ivy5.00.0%
73Alcorn State-17.2SWAC7.00.0%
74St. Thomas-17.5Pioneer8.00.0%
75Alabama State-17.9SWAC7.00.0%
76Maine-18.3CAA2.00.0%
77Tennessee Tech-18.4Big South-OVC4.00.0%
78Columbia-18.4Ivy3.00.0%
79Duquesne-18.6NEC7.00.0%
80Tennessee State-18.9Big South-OVC6.00.0%
81Murray State-19.2MVFC2.00.0%
82Morgan State-19.5MEAC4.00.0%
83East Tennessee State-19.5Southern3.00.0%
84Northern Colorado-19.8Big Sky0.00.0%
85Butler-20.0Pioneer7.00.0%
86South Carolina State-20.6MEAC5.00.0%
87Charleston Southern-21.0Big South-OVC4.00.0%
88Cal Poly-21.3Big Sky3.00.0%
89Southern-21.8SWAC6.00.0%
90Merrimack-22.1NEC5.00.0%
91LIU-22.2NEC4.00.0%
92Georgetown-22.2Patriot5.00.0%
93Texas Southern-22.2SWAC3.00.0%
94Prairie View A&M-23.0SWAC6.20.0%
95Houston Christian-23.1Southland5.00.0%
96North Carolina A&T-23.3CAA1.00.0%
97Davidson-23.6Pioneer7.00.0%
98Bucknell-23.7Patriot4.00.0%
99San Diego-23.8Pioneer4.00.0%
100Hampton-24.1CAA5.00.0%
101Grambling State-24.2SWAC5.00.0%
102Norfolk State-24.3MEAC3.00.0%
103Cornell-24.4Ivy3.00.0%
104Drake-24.9Pioneer8.00.0%
105Stonehill-25.4NEC5.00.0%
106Dayton-25.8Pioneer4.00.0%
107Bethune-Cookman-26.3SWAC3.00.0%
108Robert Morris-26.3Big South-OVC4.00.0%
109Lindenwood-26.5Big South-OVC3.00.0%
110Texas A&M-Commerce-26.6Southland1.00.0%
111Lehigh-27.0Patriot2.00.0%
112Alabama A&M-27.7SWAC5.00.0%
113McNeese-27.9Southland0.00.0%
114Stony Brook-28.2CAA0.00.0%
115The Citadel-28.6Southern0.00.0%
116Northwestern State-29.4Southland0.00.0%
117Sacred Heart-29.6NEC2.00.0%
118Valparaiso-30.8Pioneer3.00.0%
119Central Connecticut State-31.2NEC3.00.0%
120Wagner-32.3NEC4.00.0%
121Morehead State-33.0Pioneer4.00.0%
122Western Illinois-34.4MVFC0.00.0%
123Delaware State-34.6MEAC1.00.0%
124Presbyterian-35.0Pioneer4.00.0%
125Marist-36.8Pioneer4.00.0%
126Mississippi Valley State-36.8SWAC1.00.0%
127Stetson-39.2Pioneer3.00.0%
128Arkansas-Pine Bluff-40.1SWAC2.00.0%
The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. Was asked to do NIT Bracketology in 2018 and never looked back. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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