Bowl Projections: Week 13, 2023

Note: An updated version of these projections accounting for Tuesday night’s rankings and results can be found here.

Our bowl projections are live through Week 12’s games, and we’ve included them below, with our full ratings and probabilities through Week 12 also included below (for archival purposes). As always, these come from our college football model. Notes:

  • Michigan and Ohio State are each more likely to make the playoff than anyone besides Georgia, so while it’s unlikely that both make it (we’ve reached the point, somewhat shockingly, where an 11–1 record from one of those two wouldn’t be enough), we have both in the field right now.
  • Oregon has a better average final ranking in our model’s simulations than Florida State does, but Florida State is slightly more likely to make the playoff. We’ll see if the rankings tonight change anything there, but we don’t expect them to.
  • Liberty remains the top-ranked Group of Five champion in our average simulation. Again, we’ll be watching the rankings closely on this. SMU is the AAC favorite.
  • We decided to guess that Navy gets a special exception at 5–6 ahead of Army, but we’re not confident in that guess. We have Minnesota and Mississippi State in as 5-win teams. If we were to remove Navy, South Carolina would take their place.
  • Teams entering the bowl mix: Rice, Old Dominion, Mississippi State.
  • Teams exiting the bowl mix: Marshall, Virginia Tech, Nebraska.
  • At 22nd in Movelor’s rankings, TCU is the best team expected to miss a bowl.
  • At 112th in Movelor’s rankings, USF is the worst team expected to make a bowl.
  • With the updated rankings tonight, and possibly thanks to the Buffalo/EMU game as well, there’ll be changes to the bowl picture. We’ll post an update to these tomorrow morning.
DateBowlTeam 1Team 2T1 ConferenceT2 Conference
1/1/24Rose Bowl (CFP Semifinal)Ohio StateMichiganBig TenBig Ten
1/1/24Sugar Bowl (CFP Semifinal)GeorgiaFlorida StateSECACC
1/1/24Fiesta BowlWashingtonPenn StatePac-12Big Ten
1/1/24ReliaQuest BowlLSUNotre DameSECFBS Independents
1/1/24Citrus BowlMissouriIowaSECBig Ten
12/30/23Orange BowlLouisvilleAlabamaACCSEC
12/30/23Peach BowlMississippiLibertySECConference USA
12/30/23Music City BowlMarylandAuburnBig TenSEC
12/30/23Arizona BowlBowling Green StateBoise StateMACMountain West
12/29/23Cotton BowlOregonTexasPac-12Big 12
12/29/23Gator BowlDukeKentuckyACCSEC
12/29/23Sun BowlNorth CarolinaUtahACCPac-12
12/29/23Liberty BowlKansasTexas A&MBig 12SEC
12/28/23Pinstripe BowlBoston CollegeRutgersACCBig Ten
12/28/23Pop-Tarts BowlNC StateKansas StateACCBig 12
12/28/23Fenway BowlMiami (FL)SMUACCAAC
12/28/23Alamo BowlOklahomaOregon StateBig 12Pac-12
12/27/23Duke’s Mayo BowlGeorgia TechMississippi StateACCSEC
12/27/23Military BowlSyracuseMemphisACCAAC
12/27/23Holiday BowlArizonaClemsonPac-12ACC
12/27/23Texas BowlOklahoma StateTennesseeBig 12SEC
12/26/23Guaranteed Rate BowlWest VirginiaIllinoisBig 12Big Ten
12/26/23Quick Lane BowlToledoNorthwesternMACBig Ten
12/26/23First Responder BowlIowa StateAppalachian StateBig 12Sun Belt
12/23/23Hawaii BowlFresno StateTulaneMountain WestAAC
12/23/23Armed Forces BowlUCFUSFBig 12AAC
12/23/2368 Ventures BowlRiceSouth AlabamaAACSun Belt
12/23/23Birmingham BowlArkansas StateWestern KentuckySun BeltConference USA
12/23/23Las Vegas BowlWisconsinUCLABig TenPac-12
12/23/23Famous Idaho Potato BowlMiami (OH)WyomingMACMountain West
12/23/23Camellia BowlUtah StateLouisianaMountain WestSun Belt
12/22/23Gasparilla BowlUTSATroyAACSun Belt
12/21/23Boca Raton BowlNavyGeorgia SouthernAACSun Belt
12/19/23Frisco BowlColorado StateTexas StateMountain WestSun Belt
12/18/23Famous Toastery BowlJacksonville StateOhioConference USAMAC
12/16/23Myrtle Beach BowlNorthern IllinoisOld DominionMACSun Belt
12/16/23Independence BowlTexas TechMinnesotaBig 12Big Ten
12/16/23New Orleans BowlNew Mexico StateJames MadisonConference USASun Belt
12/16/23Celebration BowlHowardFlorida A&MMEACSWAC
12/16/23LA BowlUNLVUSCMountain WestPac-12
12/16/23New Mexico BowlCoastal CarolinaAir ForceSun BeltMountain West
12/16/23Cure BowlSan Jose StateGeorgia StateMountain WestSun Belt
RankTeamMovelorConferenceAverage Final CFP RankingMake PlayoffNational ChampionshipExpected WinsBowl EligibilityMake Conference ChampionshipWin Conference
4Georgia43.5SEC292.3%34.2%12.4100.0%100.0%46.8%
1Ohio State45.0Big Ten366.6%24.7%11.9100.0%46.1%43.2%
3Michigan43.6Big Ten457.2%17.4%12.0100.0%53.9%49.5%
5Oregon39.2Pac-12548.6%5.4%11.4100.0%83.7%54.5%
12Florida State32.8ACC549.5%3.3%12.4100.0%100.0%65.6%
11Washington34.1Pac-12536.7%2.6%12.3100.0%100.0%40.0%
2Alabama44.9SEC632.5%8.9%11.4100.0%100.0%53.2%
10Texas34.6Big 12715.2%3.3%11.5100.0%100.0%66.4%
6Penn State38.3Big Ten110.0%0.0%9.9100.0%0.0%0.0%
19Louisville27.0ACC111.4%0.2%11.1100.0%100.0%34.4%
23Mississippi25.3SEC110.0%0.0%9.7100.0%0.0%0.0%
18Missouri27.1SEC120.0%0.0%9.6100.0%0.0%0.0%
15Oregon State29.1Pac-12130.0%0.0%8.2100.0%0.0%0.0%
7LSU35.2SEC150.0%0.0%8.7100.0%0.0%0.0%
20Arizona27.0Pac-12170.0%0.0%8.9100.0%16.3%5.4%
13Oklahoma30.7Big 12170.0%0.0%9.7100.0%10.7%4.2%
9Notre Dame34.9FBS Independents180.0%0.0%9.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
8Kansas State35.0Big 12180.0%0.0%8.8100.0%5.0%2.5%
24Oklahoma State25.0Big 12210.0%0.0%9.2100.0%84.4%26.9%
14Tennessee30.3SEC210.0%0.0%8.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
25Iowa23.9Big Ten240.0%0.0%9.7100.0%100.0%7.3%
56Liberty16.2Conference USA250.0%0.0%12.6100.0%100.0%73.5%
52Tulane17.2American260.0%0.0%10.7100.0%54.3%24.8%
65Toledo14.0MAC260.0%0.0%11.3100.0%100.0%57.8%
17Clemson27.6ACC260.0%0.0%7.6100.0%0.0%0.0%
40James Madison20.8Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%10.770.6%0.0%0.0%
32Troy22.2Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%10.7100.0%100.0%77.6%
34SMU21.9AmericanNR0.0%0.0%10.3100.0%92.2%48.9%
49UNLV17.8Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%10.2100.0%100.0%57.8%
79Miami (OH)10.9MACNR0.0%0.0%10.0100.0%100.0%42.3%
86New Mexico State9.7Conference USANR0.0%0.0%9.8100.0%100.0%26.5%
67Memphis13.7AmericanNR0.0%0.0%8.9100.0%0.0%0.0%
78Ohio11.0MACNR0.0%0.0%8.8100.0%0.0%0.0%
37UTSA21.2AmericanNR0.0%0.0%8.8100.0%53.5%26.2%
69Fresno State13.5Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%8.7100.0%0.0%0.0%
33NC State22.1ACCNR0.0%0.0%8.6100.0%0.0%0.0%
62Air Force15.1Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%8.5100.0%35.7%15.1%
72Jacksonville State12.7Conference USANR0.0%0.0%8.553.2%0.0%0.0%
41North Carolina20.6ACCNR0.0%0.0%8.4100.0%0.0%0.0%
21Utah26.2Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%7.9100.0%0.0%0.0%
66Appalachian State13.8Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%7.9100.0%54.1%13.6%
82Wyoming10.5Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%7.8100.0%0.0%0.0%
29UCLA23.0Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%7.8100.0%0.0%0.0%
26West Virginia23.5Big 12NR0.0%0.0%7.8100.0%0.0%0.0%
30Kansas22.8Big 12NR0.0%0.0%7.7100.0%0.0%0.0%
83Coastal Carolina10.4Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%7.4100.0%45.9%8.8%
16Texas A&M29.1SECNR0.0%0.0%7.3100.0%0.0%0.0%
42USC20.6Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%7.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
50Boise State17.5Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%6.8100.0%48.0%20.3%
104Western Kentucky3.9Conference USANR0.0%0.0%6.8100.0%0.0%0.0%
45Duke18.6ACCNR0.0%0.0%6.7100.0%0.0%0.0%
54Miami (FL)16.7ACCNR0.0%0.0%6.7100.0%0.0%0.0%
68South Alabama13.6Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%6.7100.0%0.0%0.0%
44Wisconsin19.3Big TenNR0.0%0.0%6.5100.0%0.0%0.0%
35Maryland21.3Big TenNR0.0%0.0%6.5100.0%0.0%0.0%
97Arkansas State5.7Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%6.5100.0%0.0%0.0%
48Rutgers18.1Big TenNR0.0%0.0%6.5100.0%0.0%0.0%
98Bowling Green State5.6MACNR0.0%0.0%6.4100.0%0.0%0.0%
63San Jose State14.6Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%6.4100.0%16.3%6.9%
51Northwestern17.2Big TenNR0.0%0.0%6.4100.0%0.0%0.0%
101Georgia State4.9Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%6.4100.0%0.0%0.0%
107Texas State3.7Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%6.3100.0%0.0%0.0%
95Boston College6.9ACCNR0.0%0.0%6.3100.0%0.0%0.0%
39Kentucky21.0SECNR0.0%0.0%6.3100.0%0.0%0.0%
102Georgia Southern4.9Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%6.2100.0%0.0%0.0%
27Texas Tech23.4Big 12NR0.0%0.0%6.2100.0%0.0%0.0%
28Iowa State23.1Big 12NR0.0%0.0%6.2100.0%0.0%0.0%
31Auburn22.4SECNR0.0%0.0%6.1100.0%0.0%0.0%
70Georgia Tech13.0ACCNR0.0%0.0%6.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
90Louisiana7.9Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%5.987.1%0.0%0.0%
103Northern Illinois4.8MACNR0.0%0.0%5.883.6%0.0%0.0%
43UCF20.5Big 12NR0.0%0.0%5.879.8%0.0%0.0%
94Utah State6.9Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%5.877.5%0.0%0.0%
112USF1.9AmericanNR0.0%0.0%5.771.4%0.0%0.0%
91Rice7.8AmericanNR0.0%0.0%5.770.2%0.0%0.0%
85Navy9.9AmericanNR0.0%0.0%5.794.3%0.0%0.0%
109Colorado State2.9Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%5.663.7%0.0%0.0%
73Syracuse12.5ACCNR0.0%0.0%5.662.5%0.0%0.0%
96Old Dominion6.7Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%5.662.3%0.0%0.0%
47Illinois18.2Big TenNR0.0%0.0%5.660.5%0.0%0.0%
58Virginia Tech15.6ACCNR0.0%0.0%5.549.8%0.0%0.0%
111Marshall2.5Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%5.549.5%0.0%0.0%
57Minnesota15.6Big TenNR0.0%0.0%5.547.9%0.0%0.0%
88Army8.1FBS IndependentsNR0.0%0.0%5.591.8%0.0%0.0%
36South Carolina21.3SECNR0.0%0.0%5.441.1%0.0%0.0%
118Eastern Michigan-1.7MACNR0.0%0.0%5.436.1%0.0%0.0%
61Nebraska15.1Big TenNR0.0%0.0%5.334.7%0.0%0.0%
22TCU25.8Big 12NR0.0%0.0%5.329.4%0.0%0.0%
64Mississippi State14.2SECNR0.0%0.0%5.328.9%0.0%0.0%
38Florida21.0SECNR0.0%0.0%5.327.8%0.0%0.0%
116Central Michigan-0.1MACNR0.0%0.0%5.223.1%0.0%0.0%
60California15.1Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%5.222.8%0.0%0.0%
74BYU12.4Big 12NR0.0%0.0%5.114.8%0.0%0.0%
53Washington State17.0Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%5.19.3%0.0%0.0%
93North Texas7.2AmericanNR0.0%0.0%4.70.0%0.0%0.0%
113Middle Tennessee1.9Conference USANR0.0%0.0%4.60.0%0.0%0.0%
100Western Michigan5.2MACNR0.0%0.0%4.60.0%0.0%0.0%
99Ball State5.3MACNR0.0%0.0%4.40.0%0.0%0.0%
80Wake Forest10.9ACCNR0.0%0.0%4.40.0%0.0%0.0%
126Hawaii-5.3Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%4.40.0%0.0%0.0%
46Arkansas18.3SECNR0.0%0.0%4.40.0%0.0%0.0%
108UAB3.6AmericanNR0.0%0.0%4.30.0%0.0%0.0%
110Florida Atlantic2.9AmericanNR0.0%0.0%4.30.0%0.0%0.0%
129New Mexico-7.2Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%4.20.0%0.0%0.0%
77Houston11.1Big 12NR0.0%0.0%4.20.0%0.0%0.0%
133FIU-14.2Conference USANR0.0%0.0%4.20.0%0.0%0.0%
92Colorado7.2Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%4.10.0%0.0%0.0%
59Michigan State15.3Big TenNR0.0%0.0%4.10.0%0.0%0.0%
55Purdue16.6Big TenNR0.0%0.0%3.70.0%0.0%0.0%
115Buffalo0.8MACNR0.0%0.0%3.60.0%0.0%0.0%
71Virginia12.8ACCNR0.0%0.0%3.50.0%0.0%0.0%
131UMass-10.3FBS IndependentsNR0.0%0.0%3.40.0%0.0%0.0%
106San Diego State3.8Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%3.30.0%0.0%0.0%
121Charlotte-3.4AmericanNR0.0%0.0%3.30.0%0.0%0.0%
81Indiana10.6Big TenNR0.0%0.0%3.30.0%0.0%0.0%
76Cincinnati11.2Big 12NR0.0%0.0%3.30.0%0.0%0.0%
75Pitt12.2ACCNR0.0%0.0%3.30.0%0.0%0.0%
84Baylor10.1Big 12NR0.0%0.0%3.20.0%0.0%0.0%
119Tulsa-1.9AmericanNR0.0%0.0%3.20.0%0.0%0.0%
87Arizona State9.4Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%3.20.0%0.0%0.0%
120UTEP-2.1Conference USANR0.0%0.0%3.20.0%0.0%0.0%
127Temple-5.9AmericanNR0.0%0.0%3.10.0%0.0%0.0%
117Southern Miss-0.6Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%3.10.0%0.0%0.0%
105Stanford3.8Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%0.0%
130Louisiana Tech-8.4Conference USANR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%0.0%
89East Carolina8.0AmericanNR0.0%0.0%2.80.0%0.0%0.0%
123UConn-4.4FBS IndependentsNR0.0%0.0%2.60.0%0.0%0.0%
124Sam Houston-4.8Conference USANR0.0%0.0%2.40.0%0.0%0.0%
122Nevada-4.2Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%2.20.0%0.0%0.0%
125Akron-5.2MACNR0.0%0.0%2.20.0%0.0%0.0%
128Louisiana Monroe-6.4Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%2.10.0%0.0%0.0%
114Vanderbilt1.4SECNR0.0%0.0%2.00.0%0.0%0.0%
132Kent State-13.0MACNR0.0%0.0%1.20.0%0.0%0.0%
RankTeamMovelorConferenceProjected WinsConference Championship
1South Dakota State24.9MVFC11.0100.0%
2North Dakota State15.5MVFC8.00.0%
3Montana State15.4Big Sky8.00.0%
4Montana15.3Big Sky10.0100.0%
5Idaho7.5Big Sky8.00.0%
6Villanova5.2CAA9.0100.0%
7Southern Illinois4.7MVFC7.00.0%
8South Dakota4.6MVFC9.00.0%
9Furman4.4Southern9.0100.0%
10Weber State3.0Big Sky6.00.0%
11UC Davis2.8Big Sky7.00.0%
12Illinois State2.3MVFC6.00.0%
13Incarnate Word1.9Southland8.00.0%
14Richmond1.5CAA8.00.0%
15Albany1.0CAA9.00.0%
16Youngstown State1.0MVFC7.00.0%
17Northern Iowa0.9MVFC6.00.0%
18Delaware0.9CAA8.00.0%
19North Dakota0.9MVFC7.00.0%
20Austin Peay0.1UAC9.0100.0%
21Missouri State0.0MVFC4.00.0%
22Sacramento State-0.7Big Sky7.00.0%
23Central Arkansas-1.0UAC7.00.0%
24Yale-1.5Ivy7.0100.0%
25Mercer-1.7Southern8.00.0%
26Southern Utah-1.7UAC6.00.0%
27Tarleton-1.8UAC8.00.0%
28Northern Arizona-2.0Big Sky5.00.0%
29Samford-2.1Southern6.00.0%
30New Hampshire-2.3CAA6.00.0%
31Chattanooga-2.4Southern7.00.0%
32Elon-2.7CAA6.00.0%
33Holy Cross-2.9Patriot7.00.0%
34Gardner-Webb-4.1Big South-OVC7.0100.0%
35Abilene Christian-4.1UAC5.00.0%
36Harvard-4.2Ivy8.0100.0%
37Nicholls-4.2Southland6.0100.0%
38Eastern Kentucky-4.3UAC5.00.0%
39William & Mary-4.4CAA6.00.0%
40Western Carolina-5.1Southern7.00.0%
41UT Martin-5.9Big South-OVC8.00.0%
42Dartmouth-6.4Ivy6.0100.0%
43Eastern Washington-7.1Big Sky4.00.0%
44Bryant-7.6Big South-OVC6.00.0%
45North Carolina Central-8.2MEAC9.00.0%
46Princeton-8.2Ivy5.00.0%
47Rhode Island-8.4CAA6.00.0%
48Portland State-8.5Big Sky5.00.0%
49Lafayette-8.6Patriot9.0100.0%
50Florida A&M-9.1SWAC10.882.1%
51Southeast Missouri State-9.5Big South-OVC4.00.0%
52Southeastern Louisiana-9.6Southland3.00.0%
53Monmouth-9.8CAA4.00.0%
54Penn-10.4Ivy6.00.0%
55Stephen F. Austin-11.4UAC3.00.0%
56Towson-11.6CAA5.00.0%
57Eastern Illinois-11.7Big South-OVC8.00.0%
58Kennesaw State-13.3FCS Independents3.00.0%
59Fordham-13.8Patriot6.00.0%
60Lamar-14.1Southland6.00.0%
61Campbell-14.3CAA5.00.0%
62Utah Tech-14.3UAC2.00.0%
63North Alabama-14.9UAC3.00.0%
64Wofford-14.9Southern2.00.0%
65Howard-15.2MEAC6.0100.0%
66Saint Francis (PA)-15.4NEC4.00.0%
67Jackson State-15.5SWAC7.00.0%
68VMI-15.9Southern5.00.0%
69Idaho State-16.4Big Sky3.00.0%
70Indiana State-16.4MVFC1.00.0%
71Duquesne-16.7NEC7.0100.0%
72Colgate-16.9Patriot6.00.0%
73Brown-17.1Ivy5.00.0%
74Alcorn State-17.2SWAC7.00.0%
75St. Thomas-17.5Pioneer8.00.0%
76Maine-18.3CAA2.00.0%
77Tennessee Tech-18.4Big South-OVC4.00.0%
78Columbia-18.4Ivy3.00.0%
79Tennessee State-18.9Big South-OVC6.00.0%
80Murray State-19.2MVFC2.00.0%
81Morgan State-19.5MEAC4.00.0%
82East Tennessee State-19.5Southern3.00.0%
83Northern Colorado-19.8Big Sky0.00.0%
84Butler-20.0Pioneer7.00.0%
85Alabama State-20.0SWAC6.90.0%
86South Carolina State-20.6MEAC5.00.0%
87Charleston Southern-21.0Big South-OVC4.00.0%
88Cal Poly-21.3Big Sky3.00.0%
89Merrimack-22.1NEC5.00.0%
90LIU-22.2NEC4.00.0%
91Georgetown-22.2Patriot5.00.0%
92Texas Southern-22.2SWAC3.00.0%
93Grambling State-22.6SWAC5.50.0%
94Drake-22.6Pioneer8.0100.0%
95Prairie View A&M-23.0SWAC6.217.9%
96Houston Christian-23.1Southland5.00.0%
97North Carolina A&T-23.3CAA1.00.0%
98Southern-23.4SWAC5.50.0%
99Davidson-23.6Pioneer7.00.0%
100Bucknell-23.7Patriot4.00.0%
101San Diego-23.8Pioneer4.00.0%
102Hampton-24.1CAA5.00.0%
103Norfolk State-24.3MEAC3.00.0%
104Cornell-24.4Ivy3.00.0%
105Stonehill-25.4NEC5.00.0%
106Dayton-25.8Pioneer4.00.0%
107Bethune-Cookman-26.3SWAC3.00.0%
108Robert Morris-26.3Big South-OVC4.00.0%
109Lindenwood-26.5Big South-OVC3.00.0%
110Texas A&M-Commerce-26.6Southland1.00.0%
111Lehigh-27.0Patriot2.00.0%
112Alabama A&M-27.7SWAC5.00.0%
113McNeese-27.9Southland0.00.0%
114Stony Brook-28.2CAA0.00.0%
115The Citadel-28.6Southern0.00.0%
116Northwestern State-29.4Southland0.00.0%
117Sacred Heart-29.6NEC2.00.0%
118Valparaiso-30.8Pioneer3.00.0%
119Central Connecticut State-31.2NEC3.00.0%
120Wagner-32.3NEC4.00.0%
121Morehead State-33.0Pioneer4.00.0%
122Western Illinois-34.4MVFC0.00.0%
123Delaware State-34.6MEAC1.00.0%
124Presbyterian-35.0Pioneer4.00.0%
125Marist-36.8Pioneer4.00.0%
126Mississippi Valley State-36.8SWAC1.00.0%
127Stetson-39.2Pioneer3.00.0%
128Arkansas-Pine Bluff-40.1SWAC2.00.0%
The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. Was asked to do NIT Bracketology in 2018 and never looked back. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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