Bowl Projections: Week 11

Our bowl projections are live through Week 10’s games, and we’ve included them below, with our full ratings and probabilities through Week 10 also included below (for archival purposes). As always, these come from our college football model. Notes:

  • Oregon is now likelier than Michigan to make the College Football Playoff, according to our model, which sees that Michigan still has to play Penn State in addition to Ohio State. If Michigan gets through Penn State unscathed, our model will adjust, but this is something it’s duly highlighting. Michigan has a tough three weeks coming up here.
  • Texas is the new Big 12 favorite, pushing Kansas State back out of the New Year’s Six and opening a lane for Mississippi to slide in. Air Force is no longer the Group of Five favorite, with our model favoring a Liberty team whose projected win total is 12.4 over the likeliest American champion, 9.8-win SMU.
  • Even including James Madison and Jacksonville State, we’re five bowl-eligible teams short. The closest five teams to 50%, and therefore the five we’ve added, are Rice, Florida, Washington State, Texas Tech, and Houston.
  • Teams entering the bowl mix: Appalachian State, Arkansas State, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Texas Tech, Houston.
  • Teams exiting the bowl mix: Syracuse, Florida Atlantic, TCU, Marshall, Mississippi State, Old Dominion.
  • At 27th in Movelor’s rankings, Arkansas is still the best team in the country projected to miss a bowl. Arkansas closes with home games against Auburn, FIU, and Missouri, two of which are teams against whom they could impress Movelor without winning. We could have a top-25 team (in quality) miss a bowl game, for the haters who say there are too many bowls.
  • At 116th, Arkansas State is the worst team projected to make a bowl. Credit to the Red Wolves for playing better lately and winning games. They’re one win away from bowl eligibility.
  • Even small changes in the rankings can shake up the bowl picture a lot, so we’ll have new bowl projections included tomorrow when we recap how the rankings surprised and didn’t surprise our model. Check back for those. Expect ripples.
DateBowlTeam 1Team 2T1 ConferenceT2 Conference
1/1/24Rose Bowl (CFP Semifinal)Florida StateGeorgiaACCSEC
1/1/24Sugar Bowl (CFP Semifinal)Ohio StateOregonBig TenPac-12
1/1/24Fiesta BowlMississippiLibertySECConference USA
1/1/24ReliaQuest BowlLSUNotre DameSECFBS Independents
1/1/24Citrus BowlTennesseeIowaSECBig Ten
12/30/23Orange BowlLouisvilleMichiganACCBig Ten
12/30/23Peach BowlPenn StateAlabamaBig TenSEC
12/30/23Music City BowlRutgersAuburnBig TenSEC
12/30/23Arizona BowlMiami (OH)UNLVMACMountain West
12/29/23Cotton BowlWashingtonTexasPac-12Big 12
12/29/23Gator BowlClemsonKentuckyACCSEC
12/29/23Sun BowlNC StateArizonaACCPac-12
12/29/23Liberty BowlKansasMissouriBig 12SEC
12/28/23Pinstripe BowlMiami (FL)NebraskaACCBig Ten
12/28/23Pop-Tarts BowlDukeOklahoma StateACCBig 12
12/28/23Fenway BowlBoston CollegeTulaneACCAAC
12/28/23Alamo BowlOklahomaOregon StateBig 12Pac-12
12/27/23Duke’s Mayo BowlGeorgia TechFloridaACCSEC
12/27/23Military BowlVirginia TechMemphisACCAAC
12/27/23Holiday BowlUtahNorth CarolinaPac-12ACC
12/27/23Texas BowlKansas StateTexas A&MBig 12SEC
12/26/23Guaranteed Rate BowlWest VirginiaMinnesotaBig 12Big Ten
12/26/23Quick Lane BowlToledoMarylandMACBig Ten
12/26/23First Responder BowlTexas TechUTSABig 12AAC
12/23/23Hawaii BowlFresno StateSMUMountain WestAAC
12/23/23Armed Forces BowlBYUCoastal CarolinaBig 12Sun Belt
12/23/2368 Ventures BowlBoise StateTexas StateMountain WestSun Belt
12/23/23Birmingham BowlGeorgia SouthernHoustonSun BeltBig 12
12/23/23Las Vegas BowlWisconsinUCLABig TenPac-12
12/23/23Famous Idaho Potato BowlOhioWyomingMACMountain West
12/23/23Camellia BowlSan Jose StateSouth AlabamaMountain WestSun Belt
12/22/23Gasparilla BowlTroyIllinoisSun BeltBig Ten
12/21/23Boca Raton BowlUSFGeorgia StateAACSun Belt
12/19/23Frisco BowlRiceArkansas StateAACSun Belt
12/18/23Bahamas BowlWestern KentuckyBowling Green StateConference USAMAC
12/16/23Myrtle Beach BowlCentral MichiganAppalachian StateMACSun Belt
12/16/23Independence BowlIowa StateWashington StateBig 12Pac-12
12/16/23New Orleans BowlJacksonville StateJames MadisonConference USASun Belt
12/16/23Celebration BowlNorth Carolina CentralFlorida A&MMEACSWAC
12/16/23LA BowlAir ForceUSCMountain WestPac-12
12/16/23New Mexico BowlNew Mexico StateUtah StateConference USAMountain West
12/16/23Cure BowlNorthern IllinoisLouisianaMACSun Belt
RankTeamMovelorConferenceAverage Final CFP RankingMake PlayoffNational ChampionshipExpected WinsBowl EligibilityMake Conference ChampionshipWin Conference
2Ohio State42.5Big Ten374.8%27.0%11.8100.0%49.1%44.2%
7Florida State36.6ACC461.1%8.7%12.5100.0%100.0%70.1%
6Georgia38.7SEC554.8%15.0%11.6100.0%92.4%41.7%
1Michigan43.7Big Ten544.6%18.8%11.4100.0%40.7%37.1%
5Oregon39.1Pac-12550.2%7.7%11.3100.0%86.7%58.0%
3Penn State41.6Big Ten629.1%7.9%10.5100.0%10.2%9.1%
4Alabama41.2SEC634.6%6.5%11.2100.0%99.5%54.9%
13Washington32.4Pac-12725.1%3.6%11.4100.0%93.7%33.9%
10Texas34.5Big 12917.1%3.3%10.7100.0%65.4%44.2%
16Mississippi29.0SEC103.7%0.7%9.9100.0%0.5%0.2%
17Louisville28.8ACC134.9%0.8%10.7100.0%88.8%28.1%
8Tennessee35.7SEC150.1%0.0%9.2100.0%7.6%3.3%
14Oklahoma29.9Big 12150.0%0.0%9.4100.0%14.8%8.2%
11LSU33.4SEC160.0%0.0%8.5100.0%0.0%0.0%
12Notre Dame32.9FBS Independents170.0%0.0%8.8100.0%0.0%0.0%
19Oregon State27.8Pac-12200.0%0.0%8.6100.0%4.9%2.7%
15Utah29.5Pac-12200.0%0.0%8.8100.0%5.6%2.5%
22Missouri25.8SEC210.0%0.0%8.5100.0%0.0%0.0%
20Oklahoma State26.8Big 12210.0%0.0%9.6100.0%84.7%27.3%
9Kansas State34.7Big 12220.0%0.0%8.7100.0%21.3%14.2%
55Liberty15.6Conference USA220.0%0.0%12.4100.0%100.0%75.3%
51Tulane17.7American260.0%0.0%10.5100.0%59.6%28.6%
31Kansas22.9Big 12270.0%0.0%8.6100.0%5.2%2.0%
38USC21.4Pac-12270.0%0.0%7.6100.0%2.7%0.8%
21Arizona26.1Pac-12280.0%0.0%8.2100.0%6.2%2.1%
37James Madison21.5Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%11.596.4%0.0%0.0%
68Toledo13.5MACNR0.0%0.0%10.8100.0%97.0%52.3%
40Air Force20.0Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%10.7100.0%87.7%51.3%
42Fresno State19.3Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%10.7100.0%67.4%31.3%
32Troy22.9Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%10.5100.0%98.5%77.6%
75Miami (OH)12.3MACNR0.0%0.0%9.8100.0%87.9%42.0%
39SMU21.1AmericanNR0.0%0.0%9.8100.0%70.4%39.2%
64Memphis14.4AmericanNR0.0%0.0%9.2100.0%17.3%6.8%
26Iowa23.4Big TenNR0.0%0.0%9.1100.0%67.9%6.7%
65UNLV13.9Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%8.6100.0%24.1%10.1%
30North Carolina22.9ACCNR0.0%0.0%8.6100.0%2.1%0.6%
80Jacksonville State10.5Conference USANR0.0%0.0%8.492.4%0.0%0.0%
48UTSA17.9AmericanNR0.0%0.0%8.4100.0%52.7%25.4%
29UCLA23.2Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%8.2100.0%0.1%0.0%
86Ohio8.6MACNR0.0%0.0%8.2100.0%3.4%1.5%
81Wyoming10.4Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%8.0100.0%6.3%1.5%
105New Mexico State4.2Conference USANR0.0%0.0%7.9100.0%37.6%7.7%
24West Virginia24.4Big 12NR0.0%0.0%7.9100.0%6.4%3.0%
71Coastal Carolina13.1Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%7.8100.0%43.8%10.9%
41Duke19.5ACCNR0.0%0.0%7.7100.0%2.1%0.3%
87Georgia Southern8.6Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%7.7100.0%27.2%5.2%
92Western Kentucky8.0Conference USANR0.0%0.0%7.699.3%62.5%17.0%
49NC State17.9ACCNR0.0%0.0%7.5100.0%2.2%0.4%
102Texas State6.1Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%7.2100.0%0.2%0.1%
82Boston College10.0ACCNR0.0%0.0%7.2100.0%1.2%0.1%
83Georgia State9.6Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%7.2100.0%9.0%1.8%
18Texas A&M28.6SECNR0.0%0.0%7.299.8%0.0%0.0%
23Clemson24.9ACCNR0.0%0.0%7.196.6%0.0%0.0%
25Kentucky23.8SECNR0.0%0.0%7.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
35Wisconsin22.0Big TenNR0.0%0.0%7.095.3%17.4%2.0%
45Rutgers18.9Big TenNR0.0%0.0%7.0100.0%0.0%0.0%
61Miami (FL)14.9ACCNR0.0%0.0%6.8100.0%0.0%0.0%
90Louisiana8.4Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%6.896.9%1.2%0.7%
34Auburn22.5SECNR0.0%0.0%6.594.5%0.0%0.0%
112Bowling Green State1.7MACNR0.0%0.0%6.381.0%2.6%1.0%
52Nebraska16.7Big TenNR0.0%0.0%6.277.7%8.9%0.6%
72South Alabama12.9Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%6.283.1%0.0%0.0%
84Utah State8.9Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%6.182.3%0.0%0.0%
89Appalachian State8.5Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%6.174.1%12.6%2.4%
36Iowa State21.9Big 12NR0.0%0.0%6.175.8%2.1%1.1%
43Minnesota19.2Big TenNR0.0%0.0%6.174.1%3.7%0.3%
60Boise State14.9Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%6.072.1%6.4%2.7%
116Arkansas State1.2Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%6.067.7%0.1%0.1%
50Maryland17.7Big TenNR0.0%0.0%5.965.5%0.0%0.0%
106Northern Illinois4.1MACNR0.0%0.0%5.967.0%0.6%0.3%
74Georgia Tech12.6ACCNR0.0%0.0%5.866.7%1.2%0.1%
115Central Michigan1.2MACNR0.0%0.0%5.857.7%2.2%0.9%
103USF5.6AmericanNR0.0%0.0%5.871.8%0.0%0.0%
47Illinois17.9Big TenNR0.0%0.0%5.763.4%1.9%0.2%
70BYU13.1Big 12NR0.0%0.0%5.751.7%0.0%0.0%
69San Jose State13.2Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%5.755.6%8.1%3.1%
63Virginia Tech14.8ACCNR0.0%0.0%5.655.4%2.4%0.3%
44Florida19.2SECNR0.0%0.0%5.644.7%0.0%0.0%
101Rice7.0AmericanNR0.0%0.0%5.447.4%0.0%0.0%
62Houston14.9Big 12NR0.0%0.0%5.443.1%0.0%0.0%
28Texas Tech23.3Big 12NR0.0%0.0%5.443.5%0.1%0.1%
56Washington State15.5Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%5.444.4%0.0%0.0%
77Syracuse12.1ACCNR0.0%0.0%5.343.0%0.0%0.0%
113Eastern Michigan1.5MACNR0.0%0.0%5.341.1%0.1%0.0%
33TCU22.7Big 12NR0.0%0.0%5.338.2%0.0%0.0%
100Florida Atlantic7.0AmericanNR0.0%0.0%5.340.6%0.1%0.0%
58Mississippi State15.1SECNR0.0%0.0%5.332.1%0.0%0.0%
109Marshall2.9Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%5.237.7%0.0%0.0%
54UCF15.9Big 12NR0.0%0.0%5.131.8%0.0%0.0%
99Old Dominion7.0Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%5.131.8%7.4%1.3%
27Arkansas23.3SECNR0.0%0.0%5.133.1%0.0%0.0%
57Wake Forest15.4ACCNR0.0%0.0%5.132.1%0.0%0.0%
108Colorado State3.6Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%5.035.0%0.0%0.0%
73Northwestern12.6Big TenNR0.0%0.0%5.026.8%0.2%0.0%
98Western Michigan7.2MACNR0.0%0.0%4.928.9%0.2%0.1%
97UAB7.4AmericanNR0.0%0.0%4.820.4%0.0%0.0%
46South Carolina18.1SECNR0.0%0.0%4.718.7%0.0%0.0%
91Colorado8.1Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%4.57.1%0.0%0.0%
95North Texas7.5AmericanNR0.0%0.0%4.46.7%0.0%0.0%
93Army7.8FBS IndependentsNR0.0%0.0%4.30.0%0.0%0.0%
117Middle Tennessee1.1Conference USANR0.0%0.0%4.30.0%0.0%0.0%
133FIU-14.2Conference USANR0.0%0.0%4.21.7%0.0%0.0%
110Buffalo2.1MACNR0.0%0.0%4.27.4%6.1%2.0%
76California12.1Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%4.26.9%0.0%0.0%
104Navy5.4AmericanNR0.0%0.0%4.24.8%0.0%0.0%
78Indiana10.6Big TenNR0.0%0.0%4.05.0%0.0%0.0%
123Louisiana Tech-3.5Conference USANR0.0%0.0%3.90.0%0.0%0.0%
111San Diego State2.0Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%3.72.1%0.0%0.0%
119Charlotte-2.7AmericanNR0.0%0.0%3.72.6%0.0%0.0%
53Purdue16.0Big TenNR0.0%0.0%3.70.0%0.0%0.0%
59Michigan State15.1Big TenNR0.0%0.0%3.60.1%0.0%0.0%
94Stanford7.8Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%3.60.4%0.0%0.0%
67Baylor13.6Big 12NR0.0%0.0%3.60.5%0.0%0.0%
121Tulsa-2.9AmericanNR0.0%0.0%3.60.8%0.0%0.0%
66Pitt13.9ACCNR0.0%0.0%3.50.0%0.0%0.0%
125Hawaii-6.1Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%3.50.5%0.0%0.0%
114Ball State1.4MACNR0.0%0.0%3.50.0%0.0%0.0%
122UTEP-3.3Conference USANR0.0%0.0%3.50.0%0.0%0.0%
132UMass-11.9FBS IndependentsNR0.0%0.0%3.40.0%0.0%0.0%
129Temple-9.0AmericanNR0.0%0.0%3.30.3%0.0%0.0%
131New Mexico-10.4Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%3.20.1%0.0%0.0%
85Virginia8.7ACCNR0.0%0.0%2.80.0%0.0%0.0%
79Cincinnati10.5Big 12NR0.0%0.0%2.70.0%0.0%0.0%
96East Carolina7.5AmericanNR0.0%0.0%2.70.0%0.0%0.0%
120UConn-2.9FBS IndependentsNR0.0%0.0%2.70.0%0.0%0.0%
124Nevada-3.6Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%2.60.0%0.0%0.0%
127Akron-7.6MACNR0.0%0.0%2.50.0%0.0%0.0%
118Southern Miss-1.5Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%2.40.0%0.0%0.0%
88Arizona State8.5Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%2.30.0%0.0%0.0%
126Louisiana Monroe-6.4Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%2.20.0%0.0%0.0%
107Vanderbilt3.8SECNR0.0%0.0%2.10.0%0.0%0.0%
128Kent State-8.5MACNR0.0%0.0%1.80.0%0.0%0.0%
130Sam Houston-9.2Conference USANR0.0%0.0%1.70.0%0.0%0.0%
RankTeamMovelorConferenceProjected WinsConference Championship
1South Dakota State24.7MVFC10.994.6%
2Montana State15.9Big Sky8.539.0%
3North Dakota State11.3MVFC7.30.0%
4Montana10.5Big Sky9.226.8%
5Idaho7.0Big Sky8.634.3%
6Northern Iowa5.8MVFC7.11.6%
7Furman5.5Southern9.999.8%
8Southern Illinois5.2MVFC7.20.0%
9Youngstown State3.7MVFC7.00.0%
10Sacramento State3.0Big Sky7.40.0%
11Austin Peay2.9UAC8.683.5%
12Incarnate Word2.8Southland8.026.9%
13UC Davis2.7Big Sky6.40.0%
14South Dakota2.4MVFC8.63.7%
15North Dakota1.8MVFC7.00.0%
16Delaware1.3CAA8.422.3%
17Richmond0.8CAA7.319.7%
18Villanova0.7CAA8.316.6%
19Albany0.0CAA8.728.8%
20Illinois State-0.4MVFC6.30.0%
21Weber State-0.5Big Sky5.30.0%
22Chattanooga-0.7Southern7.00.1%
23Central Arkansas-0.8UAC7.113.4%
24Samford-2.3Southern6.10.0%
25Yale-2.3Ivy6.217.5%
26Tarleton-2.7UAC7.50.0%
27Eastern Washington-2.9Big Sky4.70.0%
28Mercer-3.2Southern7.50.0%
29Elon-3.2CAA6.212.6%
30Southern Utah-3.3UAC5.30.0%
31Harvard-3.4Ivy8.154.7%
32Holy Cross-3.6Patriot7.177.5%
33Southeast Missouri State-4.3Big South-OVC5.125.0%
34Missouri State-4.7MVFC3.30.0%
35New Hampshire-4.9CAA5.30.0%
36Northern Arizona-4.9Big Sky4.20.0%
37Rhode Island-5.1CAA6.50.0%
38Abilene Christian-5.1UAC5.50.0%
39Monmouth-5.1CAA4.90.0%
40Portland State-5.1Big Sky5.00.0%
41Western Carolina-5.5Southern7.50.1%
42Nicholls-6.3Southland5.365.9%
43UT Martin-6.8Big South-OVC7.838.5%
44Eastern Kentucky-7.0UAC4.93.1%
45North Carolina Central-7.3MEAC9.683.4%
46William & Mary-7.3CAA6.10.0%
47Stephen F. Austin-7.4UAC3.90.0%
48Florida A&M-8.0SWAC10.672.8%
49Gardner-Webb-8.3Big South-OVC6.534.0%
50Princeton-8.9Ivy4.96.2%
51Dartmouth-9.5Ivy5.413.6%
52Penn-9.7Ivy6.88.0%
53Fordham-9.9Patriot7.20.7%
54Southeastern Louisiana-10.5Southland3.20.0%
55Towson-11.4CAA4.60.0%
56Lafayette-12.6Patriot8.221.2%
57Bryant-12.8Big South-OVC5.11.0%
58Jackson State-13.2SWAC7.70.0%
59Tennessee State-13.7Big South-OVC7.20.5%
60Campbell-13.9CAA4.90.0%
61St. Thomas-14.5Pioneer7.65.1%
62Eastern Illinois-15.2Big South-OVC7.30.6%
63Indiana State-15.5MVFC1.00.0%
64Lamar-15.5Southland6.07.2%
65Kennesaw State-15.6FCS Independents3.00.0%
66Idaho State-15.7Big Sky3.20.0%
67Duquesne-16.3NEC7.495.9%
68Brown-16.3Ivy4.90.0%
69East Tennessee State-16.4Southern3.00.0%
70North Alabama-16.5UAC3.00.0%
71VMI-16.6Southern4.30.0%
72Alcorn State-16.6SWAC7.119.0%
73Utah Tech-17.1UAC2.30.0%
74Davidson-17.4Pioneer8.769.5%
75Charleston Southern-17.5Big South-OVC4.90.5%
76Murray State-17.6MVFC2.20.0%
77Butler-17.7Pioneer7.70.0%
78Maine-17.7CAA2.10.0%
79Howard-17.8MEAC5.010.4%
80Saint Francis (PA)-18.0NEC3.70.0%
81Alabama State-18.4SWAC7.40.0%
82Wofford-18.4Southern0.80.0%
83Tennessee Tech-18.9Big South-OVC3.60.0%
84Merrimack-19.0NEC5.32.6%
85Columbia-19.0Ivy3.00.0%
86Hampton-20.0CAA5.40.0%
87Northern Colorado-20.3Big Sky0.30.0%
88Colgate-21.0Patriot4.90.2%
89Southern-21.0SWAC6.46.6%
90Cornell-21.4Ivy3.70.0%
91Morgan State-21.5MEAC3.82.4%
92Cal Poly-21.6Big Sky3.10.0%
93South Carolina State-21.8MEAC5.03.8%
94LIU-21.9NEC4.51.5%
95Texas Southern-22.3SWAC3.40.0%
96Lehigh-22.9Patriot2.70.0%
97Drake-22.9Pioneer7.225.4%
98North Carolina A&T-23.2CAA1.40.0%
99McNeese-23.5Southland0.90.0%
100Bucknell-23.9Patriot4.30.0%
101Norfolk State-23.9MEAC3.10.0%
102Lindenwood-23.9Big South-OVC3.30.0%
103Alabama A&M-24.0SWAC5.40.0%
104Texas A&M-Commerce-24.0Southland1.20.0%
105Grambling State-24.7SWAC5.20.5%
106Georgetown-25.1Patriot4.40.4%
107Houston Christian-26.5Southland4.40.0%
108Robert Morris-26.8Big South-OVC3.60.0%
109San Diego-27.1Pioneer4.00.0%
110Prairie View A&M-27.4SWAC4.61.2%
111Bethune-Cookman-28.2SWAC2.60.0%
112The Citadel-28.3Southern0.50.0%
113Sacred Heart-29.3NEC2.00.0%
114Northwestern State-29.4Southland0.00.0%
115Central Connecticut State-29.5NEC3.50.0%
116Stony Brook-29.8CAA0.00.0%
117Delaware State-30.2MEAC1.50.0%
118Stonehill-30.7NEC3.50.0%
119Valparaiso-31.3Pioneer2.80.0%
120Dayton-31.4Pioneer2.70.0%
121Western Illinois-32.0MVFC0.10.0%
122Marist-32.3Pioneer4.80.0%
123Wagner-32.5NEC3.90.0%
124Morehead State-34.4Pioneer3.70.0%
125Mississippi Valley State-37.7SWAC1.30.0%
126Stetson-38.3Pioneer3.50.0%
127Presbyterian-38.7Pioneer3.60.0%
128Arkansas-Pine Bluff-40.8SWAC1.30.0%
The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. Was asked to do NIT Bracketology in 2018 and never looked back. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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