1. Yes, the Cubs need starting pitching, but:
They only scored three runs last night, and they scored them too late to mean too much. The raw win probability was under 20% already when the bottom of the fourth began, which is when David Ross made the decision that ultimately let the game get away, which was not to have Cory Abbott loosen up soon enough to stop any Robert Stock disintegration, which is what ultimately occurred. The Cubs have started their current three worst options over the last three nights and allowed an average of fewer than five runs per game without using the better parts of their bullpen. So, yes, the Cubs do need starting pitching, but that’s not why they lost.
2. You have to have starting pitching to have starting pitching.
That said…
David Ross said something after the game about how they need more innings out of starting pitchers, and that’s true, but Robert Stock? Robert Stock is the guy you choose to ask to do that?
There’s a possibility here that this is Ross holding the front office’s feet to the fire and saying, “Look, guys, I have four starters right now and one’s Alec Mills and another thinks he’s Batman when he’s much too old to be Batman,” but the real thing that’s probably going on is that Ross had to punt last night’s game because the Cubs’ bullpen has thrown the fourth-most innings in baseball this season, trailing only the Rays, who like to use openers; the Padres, who’ve been ramping up Ryan Weathers and Dinelson Lamet; and the Angels, who’ve been forced into using openers a decent amount themselves. It’s possible Ross and the front office had to make a call before the game saying basically, “If the win probability’s below XX%, these four guys are off-limits,” with the result of that call the punt we saw in the fourth.
3. Could sure use that win tonight.
Would keep 46-35 a reasonable goal for the end of June. Would keep the Cubs unswept in series of more than two games. Would be fun.
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Around the Division:
Those losers the Brewers lost again too (#solidarity) while the Cardinals beat the Marlins by a run to complete their resurrection into buying/selling purgatory. Hopefully it’s temporary. In a good way. For the Cubs.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
T-1. Milwaukee: 38-30, 50.5%
T-1. Cubs: 38-30, 24.7%
3. Cincinnati: 35-31, 15.9%
4. St. Louis: 35-33, 8.8%
5. Pittsburgh: 23-44, 0.0%
Cardinals open a series in Atlanta tonight. John Gant vs. Charlie Morton in a big both-could-potentially-combust game, with Morton presumably having to abandon whatever sticky stuff he uses and Gant apparently having lost whatever totem was keeping him safe from the effects of hard contact and walks.
Brewers open a series in Denver with Brandon Woodruff and Germán Márquez on the bump (not at the same time, of course—they’ll take turns). I bet the over. Call me optimistic. (Say it. Say I’m optimistic.)
The Reds, who are a significant threat to win this division, open a series in San Diego that will hopefully end with them not a significant threat to win this division. Wade Miley vs. Joe Musgrove.
Up Next:
Game 4
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Whom:
Cubs vs. New York (NL)
When:
6:10 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Citi Field
Weather:
Temperatures in the 70’s, wind blowing across from left to right at five to ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Kyle Hendricks vs. Marcus Stroman
The Opponent:
Marcus Stroman is a good pitcher. That said, his xERA’s at 4.17, so hopefully that’s the better indicator than his 3.55 FIP or 2.32 ERA and the Cubs are about to have a night.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are +114 underdogs right now, with the Mets at -124. That works out to about a 44% chance of a win. The Cubs are favored to get swept. Probably good to acknowledge that internally. The over/under’s at 7½ and favors the under.
Cubs News:
Stock’s activation was accompanied by P.J. Higgins moving to the 60-day IL. Abbott’s recall was accompanied by Dillon Maples going on the 10-day IL with a triceps issue. Hopefully both are ok. Conveniently, the Cubs didn’t have to DFA anyone.
Cubs Thoughts:
Getting swept would be bad in an isolated sense, and preferably, the Cubs will win tonight. But if they do get swept, guess what? The Cubs can still finish June on a 90-win pace just by splitting with Cleveland and Los Angeles and taking the Marlins and Brewers series. We knew the stretch was going to be hard starting Memorial Day. The Cubs are 9-7 so far on it. That’s good. That’s great, in fact. The Cubs are playing great baseball.
Now, to find someone who can throw four innings…
(P.S. Yes, I wish the Cubs had Yu Darvish too, but remember that the swap there is Darvish for Davies, not Darvish for Stock/Abbott/Casey Coleman. [Remember that guy? I don’t. I was looking for a reference from The Bad Times and found him and wow, how far the Cubs have come.])
