Baseball’s a game of funny bounces. Lucky breaks. Unlucky breaks. Seeing-eye groundballs and screaming line drives right into the webbing of a third baseman’s glove. Bad calls.
Very bad calls.
This isn’t a great thing about the game. Sure, the seeing-eye singles and screaming lineouts add some poeticism, but the bad calls? Those are avoidable. Those get in the way. And so it was that Major League Baseball, which has somehow made it this long with a vague check-swing rule and a wildly inexact determination mechanism for that rule, saw a playoff classic end on a very bad call.
What Happened
Los Angeles 2, San Francisco 1
It probably wouldn’t have made the difference. There were two outs, the count was 0-2, the tying run was on base but only on first base. There were bad calls elsewhere in the series as well (though some attention is duly being paid to a bad at-bat by the plate umpire on what should have been a Kris Bryant walk earlier in the game). But for the game to end on a call that bad…for a game that good to end on a call that bad…it’s bad. It’s bad by Major League Baseball. Sometimes there are things that you should see could become a problem. The check-swing rule is one of them. Hopefully they make a clearer rule. Hopefully they open it up to replay review. Either way, the Giants are done. The Dodgers are moving on.
You might expect the underdogs to be the gimmickers in this one. You might think the Giants, the transitioning franchise which won well over 100 games out of just about nowhere this season, would be doing Tampa Bay Rays-like things, and the Dodgers, who routinely win 100 games or thereabouts these days, would just roll the ball to their ace and let him do his thing.
The opposite happened.
The Dodgers were the gimmickers.
Early in the day, the announcement came that while Julio Urías would still be throwing the bulk of the innings, the Dodgers were going to use Corey Knebel as an opener, seemingly trying to draw the Giants into adjusting their lineup while optimizing matchups and getting an additional pinch-hitter in the early innings. As it turned out, the Dodgers didn’t stop with Knebel. After him came Brusdar Graterol. When Urías did pitch, it was just for four innings, with Dave Roberts then turning to the best of his bullpen an inning early, asking Blake Treinen to pitch the seventh and Kenley Jansen to pitch the eighth. Then, it was on to the ace, Max Scherzer, to pitch the ninth with two outs. It was the type of thing you see from teams who are short on pitching. The Dodgers are not short on pitching. But, then again, maybe they are, or contrarily, maybe they’re deep enough to do this. Still, the Scherzer thing felt riskily romantic, especially with multiple strong arms still available. One wonders if Roberts was having flashbacks to Joe Kelly vs. Howie Kendrick in 2019.
The Giants, meanwhile, were ready for 18 innings. Logan Webb was fresh. Kevin Gausman was available on normal rest. They, too, had a deep bullpen. But Webb, for the most part, rendered the bullpen irrelevant, allowing just one ball to really be smacked (a first-inning Corey Seager lineout) while striking out seven and walking just one over seven one-run innings. The run? The Dodgers had to work for it. Mookie Betts single. Mookie Betts stolen base. Corey Seager slap double.
The Giants answered immediately, with Darin Ruf obliterating a ball to center off of Urías to pull it back even. But after one more inning from Webb, the bullpens came on, and in the ninth, Camilo Doval followed up a Justin Turner hit-by-pitch by allowing one of those seeing-eye singles to Gavin Lux, which in turn set up Cody Bellinger to swat a solid base hit to the right-center gap to give Los Angeles the lead once more. On came Scherzer, and while an error by Justin Turner on a Bryant groundball gave San Francisco a one-out chance, Scherzer struck out LaMonte Wade Jr. (after a foul ball hit the wall halfway up—would’ve likely tied the game if fair), and then got Wilmer Flores on the check-swing that should have been called a check-swing. Game over. Dodgers win.
The Heroes
Win Probability Added leaders, from FanGraphs:
- Bellinger (0.25)
- Webb (0.24)
- Betts (0.21)
- Scherzer (0.19)
- Ruf (0.12)
What It Means
I’m curious about Scherzer starting Game 1 for the Dodgers, something he’d have been lined up to do but is no longer lined up to do. Walker Buehler could do it, but he’d be going on three days’ rest for the second straight outing. Scherzer wants to do it, and didn’t throw many pitches, which makes me think they might end up going that route, which could lead to some weird piggybacking. The more cautious approach would be to throw a bullpen game, possibly using Tony Gonsolin for the bulk of the innings. I really don’t know what they should do or what they will do. Big question there.
Overall, this makes the Dodgers World Series favorites once more. They are, again, clearly the team to beat. At least until someone wins tonight in the AL.
Other Notes
- Betts hit four singles, a constant threat, a constant thorn in the Giants’ side that eventually did the job. No one else on the Dodgers reached base more than once.
- Bryant had two hits, meaning he was rather close to reaching base four times himself, albeit with some help.
- Credit to Gausman, who did come in after Doval and got out of the inning with the gap still at one.
- Credit to the Dodgers’ whole staff, which struck out thirteen while walking no one and didn’t allow a hit after Urías left the game.
***
Now, LCS time. ALCS, specifically.
The Basics
Where: Minute Maid Park
When: 8:07 PM EDT
Broadcast: FOX
Starting Pitchers: Framber Valdez (HOU); Chris Sale (BOS)
Odds: HOU -140; BOS +130; o/u 8½ (u -115) [English translation: The Astros are roughly 57% likely to win; the Red Sox are roughly 43% likely to win; the expected number of runs scored is something like 8.4]
The Details
The Astros caught a bad break, with Lance McCullers Jr.’s forearm problem serious enough to keep him off the ALCS roster. He wouldn’t have pitched tonight, but that looms as Valdez, with just a 4.01 FIP and 3.78 xERA—solid, not incredible—becomes part of a pair of best choices for Dusty Baker (alongside Luis Garcia). They did keep Jake Meyers on the roster after he hurt his shoulder running into the wall the last time we saw him, but his availability tonight, specifically, is unknown.
For the Red Sox, there are similar questions. J.D. Martinez was healthy enough to swing the bat well in the ALDS, but he’s not fully healthy. Rafael Devers is a similar story, with the added uncertainty of his issue being something with his arm or wrist or forearm, clearly causing pain when he swings and potentially vulnerable to additional damage. Chris Sale is healthy, but he had a terrible outing in Tampa Bay and hasn’t been quite as dominant as usual since returning from Tommy John surgery in August, though he’s still been solid. There’s intrigue here, and it’s worth remembering as well that neither team has the best bullpen in the world, though Ryan Pressly’s a nice security blanket for Houston.
The Stars
Xander Bogaerts leads the way for the Red Sox, with Kike Hernández trying to stay hot after a simmering Division Series. For the Astros, it’s the old guard: Jose Altuve. Carlos Correa. Alex Bregman.
Beyond those front lines, the Astros will hope for a lot out of Kyle Tucker, while the Red Sox will hope Devers, Kyle Schwarber, Alex Verdugo, and Martinez can make some noise. Christian Vázquez had some big moments against the Rays, but he’ll still likely be platooning with Kevin Plawecki, who’s started behind the dish in each of Nathan Eovaldi’s starts so far this postseason.
The drama does not stop. Even if the bat did.
