Yesterday, we wrote with hope about how the absence of college basketball games might lead us to a profitable day. Alas. The Nationals couldn’t spring the upset. Maybe the return of college basketball games will lead us to a profitable night tonight. First, though, today’s MLB futures. AL West Maybe there’s something where home-field advantage […]
3 Thoughts: The Rockets Saved the Coogs, SEC Greatness, and Torpedo Bat Inefficiencies
Houston’s lucky to have Kelvin Sampson. Really lucky.
Today’s Best Bets: Baseball Is America’s Pastime, After All
Licking our basketball wounds. Swinging for the fences. USA.
Today’s Best Bets: Saturday’s Losers, Auburn and Michigan State, and a Little Bit of NASCAR
Shooting for .500 on the MLB season.
More Head Coach Scores, Tournament Over Ratings, and Conference Under-ratings
The SEC might not have been overrated.
Today’s Best Bets: The AL Central and the Elite Eight
Seth Lugo vs. Gavin Williams, and how big of favorites Florida and Duke should be.
Today’s Best Bets: Underdogs
On the diamond and the hardwood…
Sweet 16 Desperation Rankings: How Bad Does Duke Need This?
A numeric approach to existential hope and dread.
Today’s Best Bets: Opening Day, the Sweet Sixteen, and Our First MLB Futures of 2025
A great big Thursday.
Today’s Best Bets: More NIT Quarterfinals
Injuries and conference ratings and the futures market.
College Basketball Coaching Carousel: Head Coach Scores
Sean Miller’s teams have been 72% worse than those of other coaches at Arizona and Xavier.
Today’s Best Bets: Will NIT Overs Keep Hitting?
The scoring keeps coming in the NIT. Is that a real trend?
How Good Is the SEC, Really?
Even after a strong second round, there’s evidence the numbers overrate the SEC.
128 NIT Scenarios Remain. How Likely Is Each One?
In 3.3% of simulations…
Today’s Best Bets: The Last Huge Day of Basketball
We went 5–5 yesterday in the basketball, and 6–5 overall. We’re 34–28 so far on NIT and NCAA Tournament games. NCAA Tournament totals are now 0.5 points lower, on average, than their kenpom mark. Their median deviation is 0 points. The second round games played so far saw some high numbers. The first round games […]
Atlantic 10 Teams Are Struggling This March
In the NCAA Tournament and NIT, A-10 teams are 2–4 as favorites.
Today’s Best Bets: Inflation and the NIT
2.6 points per PSI?
Big Ten Teams Didn’t Just Win Their First Round Games. They Dominated.
Over eight games, Big Ten teams outperformed their kenpom predictions by 11.5 points per game.