1. This team is so bad right now.
I’m using “right now” as a caveat, but I don’t know if it’s an accurate one.
2. Javier Báez is playing scratch-offs at the plate.
Javy’s connected on a few. He’s got the second-highest average exit velocity among Cubs regulars. He’s missed a lot more:
3. Báez is not alone in his struggles.
4. Signs of life for Joc Pederson?
Pederson made solid contact four times, smoked one, and hit another one a bit harder than just “hard.” His average exit velocity was 99.9 mph (Aaron Judge leads the league right now with an average EV of 97.9 mph, for context), making it about the best 0-for-5 day one can have when one strikes out with the bases loaded to end the game.
5. Willson Contreras had a great game, so let’s start acclimating to trade talk.
It’s too early to talk trade deadline, but it’s worth thinking about how Contreras could bring back quite the haul in July if he keeps hitting anywhere close to this well (.397 xwOBA, .406 wOBA) and the Cubs are still getting these kinds of results. At some point—and again, we’re not at this point yet—it makes sense to embrace the rebuild. Partially because the rebuild becomes so obviously necessary. This isn’t to criticize the players who aren’t producing—the fault really seems to lie with the Cubs for a historic development botch—but it isn’t working, and it’s a very expensive way to not work. Could the Cubs turn this around? Definitely. I hope they do. But if the next three months look like the last few weeks, a complete and total rebuild is reasonable, as much as I want to slam my head on the wall in disbelief.
6. Ian Happ seems to be seeing the ball well.
Average-ish average exit velocity (89.5 mph), but the nine walks in 49 PA’s have his xwOBA at .376 despite his wOBA sitting at just .282.
7. New goal? Avoid the sweep.
If the Cubs can win one of these next two and continue to avoid getting swept, they might be able to at least circle the wagons. Generally speaking, this might be the best goal series-to-series until they show they can be offensively competitive.
***
Around the Division:
The Reds jumped on Cleveland, winning 10-3. Philadelphia jumped on the Cardinals, who lost 9-2. The Pirates pulled away from the Brewers, beating Milwaukee 6-1.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Cincinnati (8-5, 27.3%)
2. Milwaukee (7-6, 46.9%)
3. St. Louis (6-7, 16.1%)
4. Pittsburgh (6-8, 0.4%)
5. Cubs (5-8, 9.3%)
Alone in last. But wow. What mediocrity across the board.
Up Next:
Game two of the series today.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Atlanta
Where:
Wrigley Field
When:
1:20 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Temperatures in the 40’s again, with the wind blowing in again from left-center at roughly ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Trevor Williams vs. Huascar Ynoa
The Opponent:
Ender Inciarte might be going to the injured list and Ozzie Albies’ status is up in the air, further decimating a banged-up visiting ballclub.
Ynoa’s had a few good outings so far this year, but his career is very young (not even 40 career innings yet), so it’s hard to know what exactly to expect from him.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are at +105 to win and -115 to lose, putting their chances in the 47% range. The over/under’s at 8 and leans towards the under.
Cubs News:
Matt Duffy rejoined the club yesterday, and it continues to sound positive for Kyle Hendricks, who is now the projected starter tomorrow night.
Cubs Thoughts:
Twelve hits and walks (or the XBA equivalent on the hits side). That would be nice to see.
