Apologies for not having this up yesterday, those interested in the impact of last night on Oregon’s playoff fate. I believe I rightly assumed you could figure that one out yourselves.
Let’s get right into it:
The Big One
I mean, I guess…
Kentucky @ Georgia – 3:30 PM EDT; CBS
Kentucky enters 6-0, and as a…three-touchdown underdog. Ruh roh.
No, this is not a particularly stout test for Georgia. Kentucky deserves a lot of credit for what they’ve done—we’re not trying to take anything away from what Kentucky’s accomplished already—but Georgia should steamroll them.
Of course, Alabama was supposed to steamroll A&M…
The Other Contenders and Factors
Our four (now three, as we’ll note) contenders not named Georgia:
Oregon: Beat Cal last night, 24-17.
We’ve been listing Oregon as a contender (sparknotes for the newbies: “contender” is a team that it’s reasonable to expect will make the playoff, “factor” is a team that it’s reasonable to expect could make the playoff), as they’re favored at least in the narrative to win the Pac-12, but they’ve only looked like a great team once this year, putting up a whole lot of duds beside that one. This spot as a “contender” should maybe go to Arizona State, but really, we’re going to downgrade the Ducks to a factor and keep ASU in that status as well. If either wins out, they’re in, but the former will need to improve a lot or grab a lot of luck if they’re going to pull it off.
Anyway, they trailed entering the fourth quarter against a one-win team last night. Pulled it out, but yikes.
And yes, the overall message here is that a rather rote Georgia/Oklahoma/Ohio State/Alabama playoff still looks rather likely, though to be fair, Alabama would probably need to upset Georgia to make that happen.
Ohio State: Idle.
It’s not as hard to defend Ohio State’s inclusion as a contender. They’re a good team, they’ll actually quite likely be favored from here on out (that’s very questionable with the Ducks), if we start getting into territory where there are three or more two-loss Power Five champions, the Buckeyes are probably the best bet to be our first two-loss playoff team IN HISTORY! (This thing is only in its eighth year, remember.)
Alabama @ Mississippi State – 7:00 PM EDT, ESPN
Alabama’s on the ropes all of a sudden, but there are a lot of universes where they bounce back and become the best team in the SEC again, beating Georgia in Atlanta to move on to the playoff as national championship favorites once more. Is this one of those universes? We get our first hints tonight.
TCU @ Oklahoma – 7:30 PM EDT, ABC
Oklahoma tries to get rolling after grabbing some momentum with the comeback pounding of Texas in Dallas. They hadn’t looked great yet, now they’ve looked great for exactly one half. They don’t technically have to start rocking teams (they have a big cushion until they lose one, provided it isn’t in the Big 12 Championship), but it wouldn’t hurt, and they might start doing it either way.
UCF @ Cincinnati – 12:00 PM EDT, ABC
Among the factors, Cincinnati’s the most suspect, because it might be straight-up impossible for a Group of Five team to make the playoff. They need to obliterate teams routinely from here out to make it happen, and this is a good chance to do that to a team whose name is bigger than its game right now.
Purdue @ Iowa – 3:30 PM EDT, ABC
There’s an element where Iowa’s gotten away with stuff, and the fact they aren’t even a two-touchdown favorite at home against might-not-make-a-bowl-game Purdue is telling. But you also have to watch Iowa right now, because they are undefeated and might be favored from here until Indy, and the defense is, to be fair, outrageously good.
Arizona State @ Utah – 10:00 PM EDT, ESPN
This might be the actual best game of the week (but we’re not ready for that conversation). ASU’s already beaten UCLA and they get USC at home, making this probably their toughest remaining test, though they have back-to-back trips to Seattle and Corvallis in November that loom large if they can get there in one piece.
Arizona State’s fun because they’re completely unfamiliar to playoff-conversation territory, so even just having them in the picture for a moment is worth our while.
Michigan: Idle.
The Wolverines get to breathe for a weekend.
The Other Teams We Have to Talk About
Michigan State @ Indiana – 12:00 PM EDT, FS1
Sparty’s undefeated, looking to make it 7-0, and with a week off next week, this would get them to the Michigan game unbeaten.
Oklahoma State @ Texas – 12:00 PM EDT, FOX
A dream scenario for the Big 12 could unfold here if Oklahoma State keeps winning. Imagine 11-0 vs. 11-0 Bedlam, followed by a rematch the next week (ok the rematch piece takes some of the fun out of this hypothetical). Big test this week in Austin. Big test next week in Ames.
Wake Forest: Idle.
I don’t know, guys. The Deacs might do it. Their schedule from here goes Army (A), Duke (H), UNC (A), NC State (H), Clemson (A), Boston College (A). They’ll probably be underdogs in a couple of those, but they won’t be massive underdogs, and after last night, we’re halfway through the season without Clemson learning how to score yet.
Nine Fun Ones
BYU @ Baylor – 3:30 PM EDT; ESPN
BYU losing to Boise State took a lot of the air out of that balloon, but they get a 5-1 Baylor team now with a not-unreasonable shot at a Big 12 title game appearance. They’ve lost to Oklahoma State, but they’ve beaten Iowa State and they get Texas and Oklahoma at home. Good sleeper.
Auburn @ Arkansas – 12:00 PM EDT; CBS
Florida @ LSU – 12:00 PM EDT; ESPN
Texas A&M @ Missouri – 12:00 PM EDT; SECN
Mississippi @ Tennessee – 7:30 PM EDT; SECN
Good stuff happening in the SEC, where we’ve got Arkansas trying to stay on-the-rise, Florida entering the familiar part of the season where they’re done but not done done, Texas A&M trying to not make last week a fluke, and Mississippi trying to cement itself as the SEC West deputy. Compelling.
Pitt @ Virginia Tech – 3:30 PM EDT; ESPN2
NC State @ Boston College – 7:30 PM EDT; ACCN
Someone has to win the Coastal, and Pitt and Virginia Tech are the remaining unbeatens there in league play, sitting at…1-0 each. Across the way, NC State holds serve in the Atlantic by virtue of having already beaten Clemson, but they too are just 1-0 in the ACC. Remember UNC and Miami? They play this weekend.
Rice @ UTSA – 6:00 PM EDT; ESPN+
Some people love Group of Five undefeateds, and while San Diego State already won this week (two overtimes in San José!), and while Coastal Carolina and SMU are both off, UTSA does play, hosting the Owls in the clash for urban South Texas.
South Dakota @ Northern Iowa – 5:00 PM EDT; ESPN+
Our lone big FCS game comes from the Missouri Valley, where every win could be life-or-death for just making the playoff.
Viewing Schedule
It’s a quiet week overall, but I suppose you probably start with Oklahoma State/Texas, move to Georgia/Kentucky in the afternoon (with a close eye on Iowa, who might not actually get in trouble but might be close enough to look like they’ve gotten themselves in trouble), turn on Alabama/Mississippi State for primetime, and close out the night with Arizona State/Utah, which we’ve established as the best of the limited action.
If this underwhelms (as it should), well, next week might not be much better. But take heart! Halloween weekend features Penn State/Ohio State, Michigan/Michigan State, Iowa/Wisconsin…and that’s just the Big Ten alone. It’s coming back. Just a lull these two weeks (and who knows whether we’ll look back at it that way).
