The Major League Baseball offseason is a month and a half old, and as expected, two of the seven largest contracts signed so far (by average annual value) were signed on one side by the Kansas City Royals.
Yes, you read that correctly. The Royals. The fourth-place-in-the-AL-Central Royals. The most-of-their-prospects-are-at-least-two-years-out Royals. The almost-never-in-the-top-half-of-payroll Royals.
Mike Minor and Carlos Santana aren’t headliners. But they’re good players. A combined four WAR or so in 2021, experts guess. And again, in a market in which few teams have been active…this is noteworthy.
So, what’s going on? Well, it’s possible this is happenstance: The Royals happen to be agreeing to signings earlier than most teams. It’s possible this is finances: Maybe the Royals are in a more stable position financially than the field, or John Sherman’s more willing to lose money in 2021 than the field. But there’s another possibility here too:
The Royals got two good players for roughly half of what they’d be expected to be paid in the old $8M/WAR dichotomy. This isn’t out of line with the current market. But compared to, say, next year’s market, this is a good price, and both deals are two-year deals. Are the Royals planning for the future with this? Planning to take a shot in 2022? It’s possible that’s the goal. It’s also possible they’re just seeing opportunity and seizing it, going against the grain and seeing what happens, much like how they made back-to-back World Series appearances last decade (and won one!) while focusing on things like speed and defense, things that had fallen out of vogue as understanding of offensive value improved.
At the end of free agency, it might not look like this is what happened. The Royals might go down as rather small players, all else considered. But for at least these two months, they’ve been playing the contrarian once again. Whether that’s because others are zagging, we don’t know.
