Below is our college basketball model’s seed list. If you want a full explanation of the model, here you go. The short version is that it simulates the rest of the season 10,000 times, then lines up the teams in order of their median finish.
This list exists for those of you who want a quick overview of how our model views the field, and so that our counterparts at Bracket Matrix (which has all the brackets, if you want to take a look) can process our list quickly. It doesn’t account for bracketing principles, so if it’s bracketology you want, you may prefer these:
Automatic bids are marked with an asterisk (*). To see how the model has processed changing data throughout the season, you can reference our archive. How accurate is this? Here are our expectations.
Last Updated: Saturday, March 6th
| Seed | Team | Team | Team | Team |
| 1 | Gonzaga* | Baylor* | Michigan* | Alabama* |
| 2 | Illinois | Ohio State | Arkansas | Iowa |
| 3 | West Virginia | Villanova* | Houston* | Florida State* |
| 4 | Kansas | USC* | BYU | Texas |
| 5 | Purdue | Colorado | Clemson | Oklahoma State |
| 6 | San Diego State* | Virginia | Missouri | Texas Tech |
| 7 | Oregon | Creighton | Tennessee | LSU |
| 8 | Florida | VCU | St. Bonaventure* | UConn |
| 9 | Wisconsin | Loyola* | Louisville | Georgia Tech |
| 10 | UCLA | Oklahoma | Maryland | Colgate* |
| 11 | Rutgers | North Carolina | Virginia Tech | Wichita State |
| 12 | SMU | |||
| 12 (First Four) | Xavier | Colorado State | Boise State | Syracuse |
| 12 | UC-Santa Barbara* | |||
| 13 | Winthrop* | Louisiana Tech* | Toledo* | Belmont* |
| 14 | Abilene Christian* | Furman* | Liberty* | Georgia State* |
| 15 | South Dakota State* | Siena* | Eastern Washington* | Vermont* |
| 16 | Cleveland State* | Bryant* | ||
| 16 (First Four) | James Madison* | Grand Canyon* | Prairie View A&M* | Norfolk State* |
| Standby Replacement At-Large Teams | Drake | Saint Louis | Utah State | Memphis |