Below is our college basketball model’s seed list. If you want a full explanation of the model, here you go. The short version is that it simulates the rest of the season 10,000 times, then lines up the teams in order of their median finish.
This list exists for those of you who want a quick overview of how our model views the field, and so that our counterparts at Bracket Matrix (which has all the brackets, if you want to take a look) can process our list quickly. It doesn’t account for bracketing principles, so if it’s bracketology you want, you may prefer these:
Automatic bids are marked with an asterisk (*). To see how the model has processed changing data throughout the season, you can reference our archive. How accurate is this? Here are our expectations.
Last Updated: Sunday, March 14th before games
| Seed | Team | Team | Team | Team |
| 1 | Gonzaga* | Baylor | Michigan | Illinois |
| 2 | Alabama* | Ohio State | Iowa | Houston* |
| 3 | Arkansas | Texas* | Virginia | Kansas |
| 4 | Oklahoma State | USC | West Virginia | San Diego State* |
| 5 | BYU | Colorado | Villanova | Florida State |
| 6 | Purdue | LSU | Tennessee | Creighton |
| 7 | Clemson | Loyola* | Oregon | St. Bonaventure* |
| 8 | VCU | Missouri | Texas Tech | North Carolina |
| 9 | Georgia Tech* | UConn | Florida | Wisconsin |
| 10 | Colgate* | Rutgers | Oklahoma | Syracuse |
| 11 | Louisville | Maryland | Virginia Tech | |
| 11 (First Four) | UCLA | Drake | ||
| 12 (First Four) | Utah State | Wichita State | ||
| 12 | UC-Santa Barbara* | Winthrop* | Georgetown* | |
| 13 | North Texas* | Oregon State* | Ohio* | UNC-Greensboro* |
| 14 | Abilene Christian* | Morehead State* | Liberty* | Eastern Washington* |
| 15 | Grand Canyon* | Cleveland State* | Iona* | Drexel* |
| 16 | Oral Roberts* | Hartford* | ||
| 16 (First Four) | Norfolk State* | Texas Southern* | Appalachian State* | Mount St. Mary’s* |
| Standby Replacement At-Large Teams | Colorado State | Boise State | Saint Mary’s | Penn State |