Below is our college basketball model’s seed list. If you want a full explanation of the model, here you go. The short version is that it simulates the rest of the season 10,000 times, then lines up the teams in order of their median finish.
This list exists for those of you who want a quick overview of how our model views the field, and so that our counterparts at Bracket Matrix (which has all the brackets, if you want to take a look) can process our list quickly. It doesn’t account for bracketing principles, so if it’s bracketology you want, you may prefer these:
Automatic bids are marked with an asterisk (*). To see how the model has processed changing data throughout the season, you can reference our archive. How accurate is this? Here are our expectations.
Last Updated: Friday, March 12th (accounts for Virginia/Georgia Tech cancelation)
| Seed | Team | Team | Team | Team |
| 1 | Gonzaga* | Baylor* | Michigan* | Illinois |
| 2 | Alabama* | Iowa | Ohio State | Houston* |
| 3 | Arkansas | USC | Kansas | Virginia |
| 4 | Oklahoma State | Texas | BYU | West Virginia |
| 5 | Purdue | Villanova | Colorado* | Florida State |
| 6 | San Diego State* | Creighton* | Oregon | Tennessee |
| 7 | Clemson | Loyola* | Missouri | LSU |
| 8 | St. Bonaventure* | VCU | UConn | North Carolina |
| 9 | Texas Tech | Florida | Wisconsin | Rutgers |
| 10 | Georgia Tech* | Colgate* | Maryland | Oklahoma |
| 11 | Wichita State | Syracuse | Louisville | Colorado State |
| 12 | Virginia Tech | |||
| 12 (First Four) | UCLA | Drake | SMU | Utah State |
| 12 | Winthrop* | |||
| 13 | UC-Santa Barbara* | Toledo* | UNC-Greensboro* | North Texas* |
| 14 | Abilene Christian* | Morehead State* | Liberty* | Eastern Washington* |
| 15 | Cleveland State* | Grand Canyon* | Iona* | Drexel* |
| 16 | Oral Roberts* | Prairie View A&M* | ||
| 16 (First Four) | Hartford* | Appalachian State* | Norfolk State* | Mount St. Mary’s* |
| Standby Replacement At-Large Teams | Boise State | Penn State | Michigan State | Saint Mary’s |