Below is our college basketball model’s seed list. If you want a full explanation of the model, here you go. The short version is that it simulates the rest of the season 10,000 times, then lines up the teams in order of their median finish.
This list exists for those of you who want a quick overview of how our model views the field, and so that our counterparts at Bracket Matrix (which has all the brackets, if you want to take a look) can process our list quickly. It doesn’t account for bracketing principles, so if it’s bracketology you want, you may prefer these:
Automatic bids are marked with an asterisk (*). To see how the model has processed changing data throughout the season, you can reference our archive. How accurate is this? Here are our expectations.
Last Updated: Thursday, March 11th (accounts for Duke/FSU cancelation but no games of 3/11)
| Seed | Team | Team | Team | Team |
| 1 | Gonzaga* | Baylor* | Michigan* | Illinois |
| 2 | Alabama* | Ohio State | Iowa | Houston* |
| 3 | Arkansas | USC | Villanova* | Kansas |
| 4 | West Virginia | BYU | Virginia | Purdue |
| 5 | Oklahoma State | Texas | Florida State* | Colorado* |
| 6 | San Diego State* | Tennessee | Clemson | Oregon |
| 7 | LSU | Creighton | Loyola* | St. Bonaventure* |
| 8 | Missouri | VCU | Texas Tech | UConn |
| 9 | North Carolina | Wisconsin | Florida | Georgia Tech |
| 10 | Rutgers | Colgate* | Oklahoma | Syracuse |
| 11 | UCLA | Virginia Tech | Maryland | Wichita State |
| 12 | Louisville | |||
| 12 (First Four) | Boise State | Colorado State | SMU | Drake |
| 12 | Winthrop* | |||
| 13 | UC-Santa Barbara* | Toledo* | UNC-Greensboro* | North Texas* |
| 14 | Abilene Christian* | Morehead State* | Liberty* | Cleveland State* |
| 15 | Eastern Washington* | Grand Canyon* | Iona* | Drexel* |
| 16 | Prairie View A&M* | Oral Roberts* | ||
| 16 (First Four) | Hartford* | Appalachian State* | Mount St. Mary’s* | Norfolk State* |
| Standby Replacement At-Large Teams | Michigan State | Penn State | Utah State | Saint Mary’s |