Below is our college basketball model’s seed list. If you want a full explanation of the model, here you go. The short version is that it simulates the rest of the season 10,000 times, then lines up the teams in order of their median finish.
This list exists for those of you who want a quick overview of how our model views the field, and so that our counterparts at Bracket Matrix (which has all the brackets, if you want to take a look) can process our list quickly. It doesn’t account for bracketing principles, so if it’s bracketology you want, you may prefer these:
Automatic bids are marked with an asterisk (*). To see how the model has processed changing data throughout the season, you can reference our archive. How accurate is this? Here are our expectations.
Last Updated: Sunday, March 14th after games-FINAL
| Seed | Team | Team | Team | Team |
| 1 | Gonzaga* | Baylor | Illinois* | Michigan |
| 2 | Alabama* | Ohio State | Houston* | Iowa |
| 3 | Arkansas | Texas* | Virginia | Oklahoma State |
| 4 | Kansas | USC | San Diego State* | West Virginia |
| 5 | BYU | Villanova | Purdue | Florida State |
| 6 | Colorado | Tennessee | LSU | Creighton |
| 7 | Clemson | St. Bonaventure* | Loyola* | Oregon |
| 8 | Texas Tech | Missouri | Georgia Tech* | North Carolina |
| 9 | VCU | UConn | Florida | Wisconsin |
| 10 | Colgate* | Rutgers | Oklahoma | Syracuse |
| 11 | Louisville | Maryland | Virginia Tech | |
| 11 (First Four) | UCLA | Utah State | ||
| 12 (First Four) | Drake | Colorado State | ||
| 12 | UC-Santa Barbara* | Georgetown* | Winthrop* | |
| 13 | North Texas* | Oregon State* | Ohio* | UNC-Greensboro* |
| 14 | Abilene Christian* | Morehead State* | Liberty* | Eastern Washington* |
| 15 | Grand Canyon* | Cleveland State* | Iona* | Drexel* |
| 16 | Hartford* | Oral Roberts* | ||
| 16 (First Four) | Norfolk State* | Texas Southern* | Appalachian State* | Mount St. Mary’s* |
| Standby Replacement At-Large Teams | Wichita State | Boise State | Saint Mary’s | Penn State |