The bracket below is our college basketball model’s best prediction of what the NIT bracket will look like at the end of the season. It is not a reflection of what the bracket would look like if the season ended today. If you want a full explanation of the model, here you go. The short version is that it simulates the season 10,000 times and and makes a bracket from the median results of those simulations (accounting for bid thieving and such). With there being so much uncertainty right now, we aren’t listing probabilities at this point in the season.
If you notice any irregularities or have questions of any sort, please contact me through the information available on our about page or on twitter: @joestunardi.
- With no bracketing protocol announced, this bracket does not account for any seeding shifts the committee may use to avoid regular season rematches in early rounds.
- If you want NCAA Tournament Bracketology, we have that too.
- To see how the model has processed changing data throughout the season, you can reference our archive.
- For the list of teams next in line (relevant if there are opt-outs, and just for understanding the bubbles), read NIT Stu’s daily NIT Notes, usually published roughly an hour after this is updated.
- How accurate is this? Here are our expectations.
Last Updated: Sunday, March 14th after games, after NCAAT Selection Show (accounts for opt-outs listed below)-FINAL
| 1. Colorado State |
| 16. Stanford |
| 8. Memphis |
| 9. SMU |
| 5. Saint Mary’s |
| 12. Indiana |
| 4. Boise State |
| 13. Toledo |
| 3. Mississippi |
| 14. Richmond |
| 6. Penn State |
| 11. Minnesota |
| 7. Western Kentucky |
| 10. Louisiana Tech |
| 2. Saint Louis |
| 15. Kentucky |
Next in Line:
| North Carolina State |
| Dayton |
| Davidson |
| Marshall |
| Belmont |
| Navy |
| Providence |
| Mississippi State |
| Loyola Marymount |
| Georgia |
| Marquette |
| UAB |
Opt-Outs:
| Louisville |
| Xavier |
| Seton Hall |
| Duke |
| St. John’s |